Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 7

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-10-19 21:30:07

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

Last week the recommendations were so-so. By and large, the quarterbacks disappointed – though Romo’s clunker was more about the game script. Speaking of which DeMarco Murray was off to a fantastic start only to succumb to another injury. I actually had a whole write-up to include on Justin Blackmon but decided against it because I thought his GPP ownership would be too high – ugh. Anyways, on to the good. Knowshon Moreno came through in spades against Jacksonville with three touchdowns, Keenan Allen showed he is a top-20 talent at the position and Heath Miller provided cheap points at the tight end position. Most of the winning entries I saw in Week 6 had some combination of Moreno, Allen and Blackmon on their rosters.

The best part of daily fantasy football is you can start fresh every week and learn from mistakes and missteps the week before. Let’s get to it.

I’ve added more players than normal this week to allow you some creativity with your lineups because there are plenty of enticing matchups against bad defenses across the board. Here are my picks for Week 7:

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Nick Foles – (QB) Eagles vs. DAL

Vick has already ruled himself out of this contest, allowing Foles to draw his second straight start against a reeling Cowboys defense. Foles has been on fire the last two weeks with a 67.2 completion percentage, 542 yards and six touchdowns and no interceptions. Chip Kelly has kept the designed quarterback run in his game plan with the lead-footed Foles running six times for three yards and a touchdown. Surprisingly Foles has yet to scramble on any of his 63 drop backs this year.

The Cowboys defense has been burnt lately adding more intrigue to starting Foles this week. Since Week 1, the Cowboys have allowed opposing passers to complete 66 percent of their throws and an average of 329 yards 2.3 touchdowns and 1 interception. Most of that damage can be attributed to Manning in Week 5, though RGIII looked better than he had so far this season even if it didn’t show in the box score.
This game will be one of the highest scoring of the weekend and most sites still have Foles’ salary lagging behind his recent production.

Projection:

Eli Manning, Victor Cruz & Rueben Randle – (QB, WR, WR) Giants vs. MIN

Manning Projection:

Cruz Projection:

Randle Projection:

You could probably lump in Hakeem Nicks here as well, but this is a get-well game for everyone on the Giants. Manning is going to be the biggest beneficiary since he will be the one dispensing the football. A semi-Giants stack looks pretty enticing in a GPP if you use these three players. As you see in the sortable chart below, every major receiver facing this team has had a monster week with the exception being Alshon Jeffery in Week 2:

Let’s throw out Manning’s 15 interceptions because we don’t care about them this week. The Vikings allow an average of 319 yards passing and two touchdowns per week. With an iffy running back situation, the Giants will lean more on the passing game for certain. The above chart did not break down which Vikings defenders are the best matchups for opposing receivers. Here is how each Minnesota defender has done in pass coverage broken down on a per target basis:

Yes, you read that right. Now we know why Josh Robinson was benched for part of last week – he nearly allows a 12-yard reception every time the football is thrown at him. The linebackers have also been awful in coverage as well, and we can bet the Giants will do what they can to get Cruz lined up in the slot against either Greenway or Henderson at least once in the game. And this chart doesn’t take into account Harrison Smith going on short-term IR or that rookie Xavier Rhodes could miss the contest. Cruz should be in each of your lineups and his recent struggles have lowered his price to a reasonable level. Randle is a boom/bust type that could be the difference in a GPP.

Lamar Miller – (RB) Dolphins vs. BUF

Miller is still priced like he is in a full-blown RBBC with Daniel Thomas, but the recent snap trends indicate the coaching staff is ready to count on Miller as their feature back. In the last two games before the bye week, Miller has 77 offensive snaps to Thomas’ 28 and a large edge in rushing attempts in the same span:

Neither running back found many running lanes against Baltimore, but we only care about this matchup with Buffalo. The Bills can be run on – they allow 106 yards rushing per game to running backs. That includes 4.0 YPC and 2.1 yards gained after first contact. Neither running back is heavily involved in the passing game, so the edge goes to Miller with the better opportunity to rack up the rushing yardage.

Projection:

Eddie Lacy – (RB) Packers vs. CLV

Lacy does not have a plus matchup this weekend against a stout Browns defense, but his salary keeps him priced in as a RB2 candidate this week. Lacy has found his grove as the feature back for Green Bay and left mere table scraps for this teammates. He played 88% (57/65) of the offensive snaps against Baltimore leaving just nine snaps to John Kuhn and four snaps to fellow rookie Johnathan Franklin.

Despite the tough matchup, the injuries to Randall Cobb and James Jones will force the Packers to keep utilizing Lacy in the run game, and now there are two less options on the goal line to take work away from Lacy. It is worth taking a look at his advanced splits to see he is an equal opportunity runner. Half of his running yards have come before first contact and the other half is after contact with eight forced missed tackles:

You won’t find a cheaper source of 20 touches with a good chance to score a red zone touchdown or two this weekend.

Projection:

Doug Martin – (RB) Buccaneers at ATL

DFS should be a good lesson for season-long minded fantasy football players and Martin is a good example why. The narrative is that Martin has been a bust so far, but I don’t see it that way. He’s had tough outings against two of the top run defenses in the NFL (NYJ and ARI), but otherwise he’s right on pace with his output from last year. Here is what his advanced numbers look like if we take away those two games:

Atlanta has supposedly been stout against the run – only allowing 77 yards per game and 2 total touchdowns on the ground. Unfortunately, they haven’t been tested with a running back of Martin’s caliber yet either. Martin’s salary hasn’t dipped below value status yet, but he can be a contrarian option this weekend to zig when everyone else is zagging.

Projection:

Keenan Allen – (WR) Chargers at JAX

Allen is probably one of the most obvious choices to get in your lineup but many may still overlook him because he is buried down the list of players on Fanduel and Draft Kings. My take on Allen is the same as last week – he’s the top receiver on a pass-heavy team with a good quarterback. Going back to when he was named a starter in Week 4, Allen is averaging 8.6 targets per game and a statistical line of 6.7/100/0.67 TD. His role in the offense is to move the chains and has an average depth of target of 11.0 yards in this stretch as well – plus he is gaining an additional 5.1 yards after the catch in the open field.
Throw in the intrigue of a plus-matchup against Jacksonville and it will not be surprising to see Allen post another monster day at a screaming bargain.

Projection:

Alshon Jeffery – (WR) Bears at WAS

Given the Redskins’ deficiencies covering the pass (have allowed 13.8/199.6/1.2 TD to opposing WR per game); the Bears wide receivers are due for a big week. Brandon Marshall would seem to be the logical choice to have the top fantasy total for the Bears, but we must not forget about Jeffery. We’ve become a society of what have you done for me lately and most will remember his 1-27 clunker against the Giants last week. He was close to connecting with Cutler on four deep targets and that would have dramatically altered his day.

Jeffery is locked in as a starting wide receiver on this team with a high ceiling given his 8.0 targets per game. Do not be surprised if Jeffery is the hero this week and not Marshall.

Projection:

Josh Gordon – (WR) Browns at GB

Until the various daily sites recognize that Gordon is a top-10 talent, he will continue to earn a spot in my lineup. You may have some trepidation in using Gordon this week after the Packers bracketed Torrey Smith in coverage last week – limiting him to one catch for 12 yards. The Ravens did not have a tight end that could split the seam and draw coverage away like Gordon has Jordan Cameron so that will not be an issue this week.

If you recall from a few weeks ago, I predicted that Calvin Johnson (before he was announced inactive) was going to beat Sam Shields often for a big fantasy day. That is who Gordon will likely see in coverage. Shields’ numbers look decent the last two weeks sans CJ and a bracketed Smith, allowing just five catches for 54 yards in coverage. That doesn’t mean we forget Weeks 1-3 where Shields was beaten by a combination of Boldin, Garcon and A.J. Green for 17 catches, 310 yards and two touchdowns. Weeden will need to throw often so look for 10-11 targets to go Gordon’s way.

Projection:

Note: Justin Blackmon has a top-10 matchup this weekend at home against Jacksonville, but based on early GPP ownership in Thursday contests – his ownership should be in the 30-40% range on Sunday.

Heath Miller – (TE) Steelers vs. BLT

He’s back. It took a few weeks for Miller to round into form, but he’s picked up right where he left off last season. A week after hauling in six catches on six targets for 84 yards – he is ready to reclaim his status as the second option in the passing attack. It is criminal how low Miller’s salary is this week – especially on Draft Kings.

Baltimore has toughened against opposing tight ends since they were burned by Julius Thomas in Week 1. Each week they are allowing an average of 3.8/68.5/0.5 which sets up nicely for Miller here. A trend working in Miller’s favor is the deep throws allowed in recent weeks. In the last three weeks, the Ravens have allowed a long reception to a tight end each game: Week 3 (24 yard target to Lee Smith for 28 yard catch), Week 5 (19 yard target to Charles Clay for a 45 yard catch), and Week 6 (42 yard target to Jermichael Finley for a 52 yard catch).

Projection:

Rob Gronkowski – (TE) Patriots at NYJ

As of press time, it is reported that Gronkowski has been cleared by his doctors and will return to the field this weekend. Tom Brady is going to look his way early and often because by all accounts Gronkowski has been a 4.3/61.9/.88 TD player through his three year on a per game basis and the Jets are struggling to cover competent tight ends. Going back to Week 3, against Buffalo (Chandler), Atlanta (Gonzalez, Toilolo) and Pittsburgh (Miller), the Jets allowed an average of 8/92/1 in those three contests. Advantage Gronkowski and Brady.

If you don’t need advanced stats to tell you to start Gronkowski this week, but he is worth the risk and his price tag doesn’t reflect his status as a top-three option this week.

Projection:

Note: If Gronkowski is somehow inactive despite the positive reports, Jermichael Finley is a solid replacement and will see plenty of snaps at wide receiver against Cleveland.