From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook Betting in New Jersey: Friday, August 17th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be an expert. Follow along at your own peril.
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Red Sox 5.5 Over (+114) 1 unit to win 2.14
Tigers/Twins 8.5 Under (-103) 1.02 units to win 2.02
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6:45 ET Update
Added to my own uncertainty is a lot of weather uncertainty. The Blue Jays did make that jump up to +180, now a few dollars higher than I’m seeing anywhere else, but any chance of a delay there helps the home team as the Yankees have a much better bullpen. Of course, unlike DFS, we’re only concerned with delays that could knock the starter out of the game. If the a game is PPD, no harm, no foul. The Braves are now up to -134 now too. I’m not seeing much, if any line movement that goes against the betting percentages today. I could take the three big favorites (Washington, Cleveland, and Boston) and throw in another small Round Robin Parlay with the Blue Jays and Braves, but that would be just to have rooting interests because I didn’t fit in any DFS lineups tonight. This thought process didn’t work out very well last night. And the Blue Jays are now back down to +170 again. Sticking with just the original two totals tonight. I don’t feel confident enough in anything else to make them official plays. Apologies that I couldn’t be more exciting tonight.
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5:30 ET Update
I did mention at the onset of this experiment that the size of the slate may not necessary reflect the number of plays and today may be a perfect example of that. I’m just not seeing many prices I like on sides. Of course, I like the Nationals, Indians and Red Sox to win their games, but there’s really no point in risking money at those prices. I have slight interest in the Braves and Cardinals, but was hoping to see a both maybe $10 cheaper (both are between -125 and -130). The larger dog I was considering lightly is Toronto. Stroman has been getting lots of weak ground balls since returning from the DL, but Lynn has been pitching well for his new team too. The Yankees are still down Judge and Sanchez and I was hoping the price on the home team would be higher. The Blue Jays are only +160 on DraftKings, where they’re generally $10-15 higher everywhere else.
For what it’s worth, each of the three home teams on the west coast are dogs and I can see a path to victory for each of these teams. The opposing pitchers have enormous upside, but are fallible. Right now, prices don’t seem to stand out far enough. We’ll see once lineups are released.
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4:30 ET Update
Took a beating on this game last night, you’d think I’d shy away from going back to the well, but Kyle Gibson and Matt Boyd have a lot in common. They’re both around a league average strikeout rate with SIERAs a bit above four, but both have been quality contact managers with exit velocities below 87 mph. Also, neither offense is full of high quality bats, especially against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing (both < 85 wRC+). In fact, they hardly have any. Hopefully, they got all the offense out of their system last night.
Tigers/Twins 8.5 Under (-103) 1.02 units to win 2.02
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3:30 Update
I think the Rays will find it more difficult to play bullpen games at Fenway tonight. The Red Sox have RHBs who hit RHP well and Ryne Stanek has a severe reverse split. Although not confirmed, it looks like Yonny Chirinos could be the following pitcher and he struggles against RHBs as well. The Sox should be able to handle whoever’s thrown at them here and the weather forecast calls for humidity with a slight wind out to left.
Red Sox 5.5 Over (+114) 1 unit to win 2.14
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Thursday recap:
Cubs/Pirates 8.5 Over (-118) 2.35 units to win 4.35 – L -2.35
Nationals +110 1 unit to win 2.1 – W +1.1
Nationals +108 1 unit to win 2.08 – W +1.08
Tigers +155 1 unit to win 2.55 – L -1
Angels +102 1 unit to win 2.02 – L -1
Round Robin Parley 2 units – L – 2
Day Total 1-4 -4.17 units
Grand Total 6-9-1 -1.48 units (-8.2% ROI*)
Sides 2-4 +0.7 units
Totals 4-4-1 -0.26 units
Parlays 0-1 -2 units
*Note: Counts one two unit free bet as $0 risked.
The Cubs and Pirates scored a single run. Jon Lester threw 50 four-seam fastballs and just two were put in play against 13 either called strikes or swung through. The Nationals narrowly held onto a 5-1 sixth inning lead to win 5-4. The Angels scored five in the first and had a 6-4 lead in the eighth. They got out of the inning with the score tied originally, but a replay review gave the Rangers the lead and essentially the game. The Tigers scored seven runs in the first five innings, allowed as many in the sixth inning alone. An ill-conceived round robin parlay was born of avarice and rightfully punished. A proper amount of self-loathing was applied. A more disciplined approach and sticking to just the two original plays would have led to a split and kept the week in profit, but also, the Angels could have not blown a five run lead too.
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There are so many options available to players on the DraftKings Sportsbook (despite the lack of individual player props) that I’m still constantly finding new things even after nearly two weeks on the site now.
One such interesting find the other night was that during Live Betting, players can wager whether the next batter is going to reach via either hit or walk or instead make an out. This doesn’t appear to be available for all games at all times for some reason or at least may not always be in the same spot, but I think it’s something the site would benefit from featuring more prominently. If someone is really tuned into the players and flow of a particular game, it might be something they enjoy.
Often, I’ll be watching a game and be able to see that either a pitcher or even a particular hitter looks really locked in. Maybe they’re taking some great swings and just missing. They’re spitting on everything out of the strike zone, fouling it straight back, pulling it hard just foul. If you think he’s going to get on base via hit or a walk, the prices for such a wager are generally +150 or more.
Perhaps this is something someone much smarter than me can model out ahead of time, but most bettors are probably going by feel here. In fact, the player in question for me just before finding this feature was Todd Frazier. He had begun picking it up over the last few days and seemed to be on everything this particular Baltimore reliever was throwing. Though I’d imagine that the wager would not be offered if the book didn’t have a mathematical edge, there are those rare occasions you really feel like a batter is getting ready to punish the baseball. Heck, sometimes you just know it. The great thing is that you don’t even have to specify the type of hit. Even a walk pays off. Frazier ended up knocking one off the outfield wall and I’d wished I’d found that option a few minutes earlier. The AB is actually what prompted me to search for this particular feature.
The unfortunate part of it is that since the log in process does take a minute with location and players can’t just remain idly logged in for too long, you have to know set up ahead of time to be ready when the particular batter you’re interested comes to the plate.
If you feel a particular pitcher is rolling and just can’t be touched, it’s possible to wager the opposite way, but be forewarned that you’ll generally be laying a hefty price. Maybe I’ll eventually post an article that’s a running commentary of my wagering on every single PA if there’s any interest. Maybe it’s something that comes across better on Twitter. It’ll probably be a deGrom start too.
The football version of this doesn’t appear to be available yet, but I could be wrong. I’d imagine something similar will be in play by the start of the season if not yet and would expect it to be a popular option. I’m very curious to see what it looks like.