From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Thursday, August 23rd
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this. Follow along at your own peril.
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Check back later once lineups start to roll out for updates.
Afternoon:
Phillies +143 1 unit to win 2.43
Giants/Mets 6.5 Under (-105) 1.04 units to win 2.04
Tigers -136 1.35 units to win 2.35
Evening:
Marlins +165 1 unit to win 2.65
Reds +180 1 unit to win 2.8
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6:45 ET Update
Final update for today. For all three large road dogs, I’m not seeing much line movement though the public seems to be favoring the home teams. The Marlins have already been played, I don’t feel good even a little about the Royals, but I can see a path to victory for the Reds as well. Cole Hamels has been pitching well, but so has Anthony DeSclafani. Both are prone to HRs and neither is close to a lock. The Reds do have an atrocious bullpen, but the Cubs have been vulnerable lately. I think the Reds have a fighter’s chance in this game. The Cubs are one of those nationally favored teams that often seems over-valued. Let’s see if we can split with one of the dogs.
Reds +180 1 unit to win 2.8
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5:30 ET Update
The four game evening slate does not look nearly as appetizing as the early one. All four games feature large favorites and the public seems to be heavily on each favorite (no surprise), though Oakland is the only favorite who’s line has increased. The one dog I do like a little bit at their current price is Miami +165. They beat the Yankees last night and could have beaten them the night before, while Sean Newcomb is a contact manager who’s been lit up in each of his last two starts. The Braves will be facing a lot of the Miami bullpen. Not that they’re good, but they can at least play matchups and the Braves aren’t an offensive powerhouse against RHP either. The extremely negative run environment could help the Marlins keep the game close. I think they’re a bit more likely to win this one than the line gives them credit for. I don’t anticipate having another play tonight, but if I do, it certainly won’t be a favorite. Will update again either way in about an hour.
Marlins +165 1 unit to win 2.65
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12:45 ET Update
Three early game plays, all based on pitching.
Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola are both great. Nola is a sizable dog. Ironic that the Philadelphia pen killed me last night when the Washington pen has been the more implosive one. If Nola holds the Nationals to no runs, Scherzer can’t do better than that and I’ll take a matchup of pens again. With recent additions/subtractions, lineups may be even enough
Phillies +143 1 unit to win 2.43
The Mets are terrible against LHP no matter who they put at the top of the order. Jacob deGrom is extra-special in day games. Not just this year, but for his career. He’s in a great spot at home. The total is very low, but I’m going to make an exception for an exceptional pitcher and a somewhat exceptional offense.
Giants/Mets 6.5 Under (-105) 1.04 units to win 2.04
Everything in Detroit seems very even. Both lineups are terrible and bullpens are mediocre. Matt Boyd is much the better pitcher though. James Shields may get his six innings in, but that’s not based on merit. It’s more about wanting to save some younger arms. Boyd is a strong contact manager and won’t have to face Abreu either. It’s a bit larger than normal for our favorites, but not too high.
Tigers -136 1.35 units to win 2.35
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Yesterday’s recap:
Afternoon:
Reds 3.5 Over (+107) 1 unit to win 2.07 L -1
Reds/Brewers 9 Over (-112) 1.11 units to win 2.11 L – 1.11
Evening:
Phillies +138 1 unit to win 2.38 L – 1
Marlins +155 1 unit to win 2.55 W – +1.55
Giants/Mets 7.5 Under (-124) 1.19 units to win 2.15 – L -1.19
Braves/Pirates 8.5 Under (-120) 1.19 units to win 2.19 – W +1
Indians -112 1.11 units to win 2.11 – L -1.11
Tigers +160 1 unit to win 2.6 L – 1
Day Total 2-6 -3.86
Grand Total 13-17-1 -2.74 units
Sides 5-7 +1.28 units
Totals 9-10-1 -2.66 units
Parlays 1-2 -1.39 units
The Reds and Brewers had the bases loaded three times without scoring a run. This does not help Overs to cash. The evening Unders were split with neither being very close. It looked like the sides were going to split too and minimize the afternoon losses, but the Phillies just couldn’t hold any sort of lead, finally blowing it in agonizing fashion with two outs in the ninth.
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With four of the nine games on Thursday starting at 1pm ET and several Cy Young hopefuls on the mound early, there could be more afternoon action on the way.
Yesterday was the biggest day since starting this experiment with eight plays and it was also a losing day. After a day like this you really want to look at your process for several reasons. For one, the entire process is fairly new to me. You want to make sure you’re not over-stretching yourself with so many plays.
The good news is that I would be happy to make almost every play I made yesterday again today. My only possible regret was the early call on the Reds Over. Freddy Peralta has struggled greatly against LHBs, but while the Reds had some lefties in the lineup, they weren’t necessarily quality lefties. Still, there were ample opportunities for runs to be scored in that game.
The late game choices included some healthy dogs in three out of four spots. It didn’t go our way, but I still feel confident in the decisions made. One of the two big dogs won, while all four sides had the lead at some point and we were one out from a near break-even day, losing on a walk off HR (2.38 unit swing).
Wednesday is probably what I’d expect the standard card to look like here, although perhaps not so many plays. The sides will be a mix of dogs, sometimes sizable ones, with small favorites. There are going to be days where favorites do what they’re supposed to and some units will be lost. It’s not really the record I’m concerned with. Sides are showing a profit at 5-7 so far.
Going forward I’m looking for ways to refine a routine, with the most important resources being those that offer money flow and line changes only after my own handicapping. I’m wondering about the order of that routine though. Am I losing something by not tracking any line/money movement prior to release of lineups each day?
The important thing for today though, is that I still feel good about my process and choices despite the losing day.