From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Thursday, September 13th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
Last week, RotoGrinders launched Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. One of the earliest available features is the ability to track plays. Many more tools and features are to come.
Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Check back later once lineups start to roll out for updates.
MLB
Marlins/Mets 8 Under (-118) (DK) 1.18 units to win 2.18
College Football
Charlotte +2 (-110) (DK) 1.1 units to win 2.1
Old Dominion/Charlotte 47.5 Under (-110) (DK) 1.1 units to win 2.1
Boston College/Wake Forest 56.5 Under (-110) (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.1
NFL
Bengals -102 (FD) 1.02 units to win 2.02
(Special FD promo – bet gets refunded if winning at halftime and then loses)
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7PM Upate
Apparently windy conditions either didn’t manifest in the college games or had very little effect on the passing games. The side did cash in the early game with the total being lost with just a couple of minutes to play. The later game is now just about at the half and nearly over already.
I feel the Bengals and Ravens are fairly evenly matched with the public maybe a bit too high on the road team after beating the snot out of the Bills last week. The home team had a fight on their hands, but still beat the Colts. I don’t have a strong opinion either way, but two interesting aspects: – FanDuel is running another promo (their +EV promos are going to bust me) where if I play a game on the moneyline and win the first half, I get refunded if my bet loses. – There looks to be a tiny reverse line angle on the home team with the majority of the public on the Ravens, yet the line decreasing. So…
Bengals -102 (FD) 1.02 units to win 2.02
That’s going to be it tonight. No late game MLB plays either.
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6PM Update
Nice start to the day. Mets go back-to-back with two outs in the ninth to win it, but the 4-3 score stays below eight.
We have lineups for all but the single west coast game right now, but nothing looks all that attractive. Among the four 7pm games, each game has a sizable favorite. The only interesting line movement is in Boston and a small drop may be due to Mookie Betts being absent. The 8pm game in Kansas City is near even, but everything about that game is…yuck. Pitching, hitting, bullpens…all yuck. I believe I’m passing on MLB right now, but may have a play on the late game and will be back for another update before the NFL game kicks off.
Pass for now on 7 & 8 pm MLB starts.
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Tuesday’s recap:
Tigers +186 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.86 L -1
Orioles +160 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.60 L -1
Brewers +112 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.12 L -1
Pirates +128 (FD) 1 unit ton win 2.28 L -1
Diamondbacks/Rockies 10.5 (-104) (FD) 1.04 units to win 2.04 L -1.04
Daily Odds Boost: Two Team Parlay (Mets/Yankees) +150 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.5 L -1
MLB
Day Total 0-6 -6.04 units
Grand Total 58-64-1 -2.67 units
Sides 31-37 -0.93 units
Totals 28-23-1 +2.65 units
Parlays 1-5 -4.39 units
NFL
Day Total
Grand Total 1-0 +1 unit
Spread 1-0 +1 unit
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 1-2 -1.2 units
Spread 0-2 -2.2 units
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
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Well, that was a professional beating on Tuesday. That day off on Wednesday may have been needed for recovery.
Trouble was apparent when Alex Cobb was forced to leave the game after two scoreless innings due to a blister. The Baltimore pen immediately allowed three runs in the third and that was the game, quite literally. They actually didn’t allow another run the rest of the way, but that was enough. The Tigers had a four run inning early in the game, but were already behind by five. That was the final score as well. The Pirates and Cubs never gave any hope. The game in Colorado began with four runs in the first. We needed just seven more, but got five. The game ended with the cashing run on second. FanDuel is going to break my roll with these enhanced odds parlays.
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Despite the traditionally smaller Thursday MLB slate, there are a number of sporting wagering opportunities today. We have baseball, we have NFL and we have some college football. We even have afternoon baseball and college football. Some of that is because we also have a hurricane bearing down on the mid-Atlantic, which is much more important than anything that anyone talks about here. Please heed evacuation notices and take every necessary precaution if you are in the path of potential destruction. It can never be easy for someone to make a decision to abandon their home, but these events are no joke.
Instead of having an overarching theme today, we’re going to consider the five afternoon games (three MLB and two college football) right now.
First up is the first game of a double-header between the Mets and Marlins and an affair at Coors between the Diamondbacks and Rockies. One of these is a battle for the National League West. The other is pretty meaningless except for the Jacob deGrom reaction shots every time the Mets score a run for another pitcher (this was seriously something SNY did last night with just about every run).
Steven Matz has been pitching very well (6 ER last 24 IP with 31 strikeouts). Sandy Alcantara throws hard, but his success will ultimately depend on whether his changeup is good enough to get LHBs out. The Mets are a fairly sizable favorite in this game, but there’s a decent enough chance we do see a pitching duel break out. At the very least, I don’t expect the Marlins to do much.
Marlins/Mets 8 Under (-118) (DK) 1.18 units to win 2.18
Clay Buchholz has, somehow, managed to avoid Coors in his first year with Arizona up until this point. This could be an issue as his curveball is his best pitch. Kyle Freeland has failed to go at least six innings in four of his last 16 starts, allowing more than two runs just three times, all on the road ironically. He has a league average strikeout rate with a slight ground ball lean and league average hard contact rates over that span. I think a line around -140 just about nails it in this game. No play.
In Washington, Joe Ross gets his first start of the season, which I thought had happened last week, but apparently not. I would not expect him to go deep into this game and the Washington bullpen is a mess. On the other side, Mike Montgomery doesn’t go deep into games either. I’d expect Joe Maddon to exploit Ross’s platoon issues. Chicago as a small favorite here seems right as well. No play.
We move onto college football, where the Old Dominion @ Charlotte game has been moved up to 4pm ET today due to weather effects. These are supposed to be two terrible teams, but at least Charlotte appears to be able to run the ball. Strong winds may prohibit either team from throwing the ball. Well, that and talent. The line has already dropped from +3 to +2 on either DraftKings or SugarHouse. If wind equals more running and running equals more time off the clock, then wind and poor passing games also equal an under. There also seems to be some reverse line movement in this game, which is often a good sign.
Charlotte +2 (-110) (DK) 1.1 units to win 2.1
Old Dominion/Charlotte 47.5 Under (-110) (DK) 1.1 units to win 2.1
The same weather situation has moved up the Boston College @ Wake Forest game to 5:30 ET. This likely means more wind. FanDuel currently has the total a point above the other two books at 56.5.
Boston College/Wake Forest 56.5 Under (-110) (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.1
Lastly, I talked last week about DFS focused NFL tools and articles that might be able to help sports bettors, but with all the news and promotions as the online books got ready for the first week of the NFL season, we weren’t able to go too far in depth on a lot of these features. Today, I just want to remind DFS players and sports bettors alike that a content schedule is now available with a massive amount of NFL information available to players. This helps members keep track of when everything is released, including articles, stats and shows. I can’t emphasize enough how helpful this is.