From DFS to NJ Sports Betting: Tuesday, October 2nd
Online sports betting is now a very real and completely legal process in New Jersey. As laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
Today’s Plays
(Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Check back later once lineups start to roll out for updates.
Rockies +126 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.26
7:30 PM Update
When the line started dropping this afternoon, I’d thought I’d made another mistake in waiting on this game, but it has since climbed back up to where it was when this was originally posted. I think it’s also important to note that I’m a bit less confident on this play since realizing that Freeland is on three days rest and the Rockies are playing in their third different time zone in three days. The starter may not be asked to do too much though and it’s not like they’re flying back and forth between coasts every day. These athletes are in peak condition. They should be up for it for one more night and have had 24 hours rest, playing an afternoon game on Monday. Still going with the Rockies tonight. Currently at +126 on FanDuel. That’s what I’ll grade it as for our purposes, but I’ll be waiting a bit longer to see if it climbs any higher.
Rockies +126 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.26
We also have starters announced for Wednesday’s AL Wild Card game. It will be Luis Severino against the Oakland bullpen (Liam Hendriks). Last year, Severino was quickly down three runs and out of the ball game. The Yankees bullpen held the fort as they came back against the Twins and Ervin Santana to win that game. Both teams have excellent bullpens, though September was not the best month for either of these pens. More on this game tomorrow.
Yesterday’s Results:
MLB
Brewers +118(FD) 1 unit to win 2.2 W +1.18
Brewers 3.5o 1.25 units to win 2.25 L -1.25
NFL
Broncos +3.5 (-110) (BS) 1.1 units to win 2.1 L -1.1
MLB
Day Total 1-1 -0.07 units
Grand Total 89-96-1 +3.71 units
Sides 45-57 -4.42 units
Totals 37-30-1 +3.78 units
Parlays 4-6 +0.48 units
Props 5-4 +3.9 units
NFL
Day Total 0-1 -1.1 units
Grand Total 5-4 +1.64 units
Spread 2-1 +0.9 unit
Moneyline 2-0 +2.05 unit
Totals 1-1 -0.06 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit
Props 0-1 -0.25 units
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 5-5 -0.5 units
Spread 2-3 -1.3 units
Totals 3-2 +0.8 units
Yesterday’s Recap
Both starting pitchers in Milwaukee did a great job. In fact, all four starters did a great job, but the Brewers did get to the Chicago pen, which was identified as the weak link yesterday. It was enough to win the game, but not enough to go over the 3.5 total, earning a split on the MLB plays.
The lean towards the Dodgers would have paid off, but there are no regrets in not laying the large number against German Marquez, who looked every bit the star he’s turned into in the second half of the season. Every batter in that Dodger lineup is work though.
You could say that neither the inkling to pass on the Monday Night Football game or side with the Broncos was necessarily wrong, the two choices being wavered on yesterday. Denver did a better job of containing the Kansas City offense than anybody else this year for three quarters and were one strange decision away from having a chance to win that game on the last play. Both the line and total were very close to the actual results.
Wild Card Preview
Tonight, it’s Kyle Freeland vs Jon Lester, while neither the A’s nor Yankees appear to have confirmed a starter yet for tomorrow. SugarHouse is posting a line of Yankees -157 and A’s +135 on that game though.
The Cubs have a .317 wOBA vs LHP this year, while the Rockies have a .342 wOBA. Easy analysis, right? But you know it’s that simple. Both numbers equate to a wRC+ a point or two below 100 meaning that we essentially have two league average offenses against southpaws tonight. If you’re looking for the major offensive difference, the Cubs have a 104 wRC+ at home (but only an 11.8 HR/FB). The Rockies have a 78 wRC+ with a 12.9 HR/FB on the road.
Kyle Freeland was the rare Colorado pitcher who runs an ERA (2.82) well below his estimators, due to an 82.8 LOB%. His 12.2 K-BB% was closer to league average this season (6.4% last year), but his GB rate dropped nearly eight full points (46.9% from 53.9%). He threw four pitches at least 12% of the time this year with not a single one above a .320 wOBA. The odd thing is that his GB rate actually improved 10 points against LHBs, while sustaining a 27% strikeout rate. They have been unable to touch him (.234 wOBA in 2018). Last year, he really struggled against RHBs despite a 56 GB%, due to a 1.9 K-BB%. This year, both of those numbers moved significantly (46.6%, 10.4%).
Jon Lester is going to be slightly more straightforward, though he also had an ERA (3.32) well below his estimators. While some of that is due to the best defense in the league, some of it was also because of an 80.3 LOB%. His .354 xwOBA was well above his .320 actual mark and again, credit the defense, but his 87.5 mph aEV is his highest mark in four years of Statcast recordings. His 11.2 K-BB% is tied with his 2012 mark for his lowest since 2008. It would be fair to consider him a league average pitcher with great defense.
There is some potential for both pitchers to be slightly over-valued here. Because this is an elimination game though, that’s not something to get too wrapped up in because starting pitchers should have short leashes today. However, Lester may actually have the longer one because the Rockies have a large bullpen advantage. The Colorado pen has a 3.18 FIP and 19.6 K-BB% over the last 30 days, compared to the Cubs 4.02 FIP and 8.7 K-BB%. Chicago remains without Brandon Morrow, but Pedro Strop (3.43 FIP, 15 K-BB% this season) may be back tonight.
We do not yet have Kevin’s forecast (if there is going to be one) for Wrigley tonight, but a twitter search returned no major issues.
Due to bullpen involvement, we should expect lower totals for post-season games, but tonight’s number has dropped down from 7.5 to 7. This seems to be with two-thirds of the action coming in on the over though. I have a small lean towards the over due to the two starters being slightly over-valued, but the bet I like a bit more tonight is the Rockies, who are +125 on basically all four online books we employ here. I’ll give the Cubs a slight offensive and defensive edge, but the Rockies a significant bullpen edge. As some readers may know, home field advantage in the MLB post-season is over-rated. Go ahead and check the numbers. I think this line should be closer to pick or the Cubs less than a -120 favorite.
However, I’m not going to make that wager yet because with two-thirds of the action behind the home team, we actually see the moneyline rising. I’ll be back later with an official play on this game.
MLB Post-Season Props
Last week, I posted three MLB post-season props, all to win the World Series:
Dodgers +600
Indians +100
A’s +1600
All were 0.5 units or below. Yesterday, I added the Brewers +1400 to that group.
My thinking is that all of these teams can match up, at least offensively with each of the teams who won 100 games. For the Indians, if Andrew Miller and Josh Donaldson are healthy, they may be just as good as any AL team in a short series, especially if the Astros are still banged up. All of their big bats except Alex Bregman have taken a step backwards.
DraftKings has specific WS matchup props available right now with +1600 on the Dodgers facing the Indians and +2000 on the Indians facing the Brewers, which may seem like they’re worth a couple of dollars.
Sugarhouse has installed the Astros as a -225 favorite and the Dodgers as a -240 favorite in their upcoming series.
FanDuel has just WS and league championship team props.
BetStars has the same, but I do have a free bet option on Stars with an expiration date of Friday, which I may use on a particular series once prices are up. It’s likely going to be either the Dodgers or Brewers.
RotoGrinders has launched Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. Track plays and win great prizes right now! Many more tools and features are to come.