Home Run Derby - MLB DFS Community Contest: Tuesday, July 12th
Happy Dinger Tuesday, Grinders! FanDuel Sportsbook is running back their home run promotion, lining up seamlessly with our bi-weekly contest. I, unfortunately, cannot participate as our family vacation to Orlando, Florida ends tomorrow. I will be rushing out of the airport to place all of my Open Championship bets. In any event, I can still pick a few home runs on one of the last slates before the All Star Break. Let’s take a look at our leaderboard after Friday’s slate before making our picks.
Matt Olson and Michael Harris led the way with a home run each in the Braves game. They were very popular in Friday’s contest and paid off. Tinydubs77, prg_900, and yisman took advantage of some bombs and were able to pull into a big tie for this month’s lead at five home runs. Obviously, we have plenty of time left although we will lose a slate during the break. Take advantage of the big slate today!
Reminder! Prizes were doubled for each month. Spread the word!
Rules, Tiers, and Prizes
Here are the cliff notes from the introductory rules and guidelines set forth in our opening article. If you want a bit more clarification, here is the first article with a more developed explanation for the contest.
In short, pick three players in the comments for tonight’s DraftKings Main MLB slate. You may pick one player from each of the tiers below.
Luxury Box – $5,000 and above
Promenade – $3,500 – $4,900
Bleachers – Below $3,500
You will collect home runs for every home run your batters hit that night. Selections must be made prior to lock time in the comments section. At the end of each month, prizes will be award to the community members with the most home runs. At the end of the season, additional prizes will be awarded to those members who put together the best totals for the entire season (ending in August).
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the month (April, May, June, July, August)
First Place – 2 months of RotoGrinders MLB Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders T-shirt and hat
Third Place – 2 weeks of SAO Premium
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the entire baseball season (April – August)
First Place – One month of RotoGrinders Combo Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders Swag Pack
Third Place – One month of SAO Premium
If you have any questions, please feel free to leave them in the comments or send me a message on Twitter.
Tuesday, July 12th MLB DFS Slate Notes
Tonight’s DraftKings Main Slate begins at 7:05 PM EST with 14 games. The first game of the Indians-White Sox doubleheader is in the afternoon and the Marlins meet the Pirates at about 6:40 PM. Those games will not be included.
We have three games in domes and Coors Field on the slate. Two of the highest implied run totals find themselves in Coors Field, this evening. Be sure to check Kevin Roth’s weather report prior to locking in all picks and DFS lineups. At the time of this writing, Washington and New York might feature a bit of rocky weather.
Here is a list of the five worst pitchers with regard to HR/9 on tonight’s slate. Two of them play in the same game:
Josiah Gray, WSN, 1.86
James Kaprielian, OAK, 1.69
Beau Brieske, DET, 1.67
Kris Bubic, KCR, 1.66
Luis Garcia, HOU, 1.63
At the time of this writing, the following are the five highest implied run totals per our RotoGrinders Starting Lineups page:
Padres – 5.85
Yankees – 5.57
Rockies – 5.15
Rangers – 4.82
Twins – 4.81
I suspect one or more teams might be added to this list when totals are released. I am thinking the Blue Jays find this list.
Let’s get in to tonight’s home run calls.
Tuesday, July 12th MLB Home Run Picks
Luxury Box – Aaron Judge – OF – $6,100
Why monkey around? Aaron Judge didn’t hit a home run in his last game so… he must be due, right? The towering powerhouse returns to the confines of Yankee Stadium for a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds. Oh, boy.
I am thinking we are going to see a boat load of runs over the next three days in the Bronx and I don’t think they will come off of Reds’ bats. If you have Yankees on the mind for home runs, you start with Aaron Judge and try to fill the stack out with others. I don’t know much about Graham Ashcraft but I feel pretty bad for him. This is likely not going to go well.
Judge is +220 on FanDuel Sportsbook for a home run at the time of this writing. This is probably not the best line to bet but the number certainly makes me feel very comfortable with this selection.
Promenade – Matt Carpenter – 3B – $3,900
Stack alert! For all of the aforementioned reasons I love Aaron Judge, I am going to stack the Yankees tonight and try to capture all of the odds. The last time I stacked the Yankees my parlay hit and Matt Carpenter was one of the legs.
Matty Carp has a .511 ISO in 53 at-bats against right-handed pitching. While this is small sample theatre, Carpenter is clearly playing well enough to find a roster spot despite plenty of healthy bats available on the Yankees. Yankee Stadium is a perfect home park for Carp’s 58.8% fly ball rate (small sample). This feels like a no brainer.
I don’t see odds for Carpenter on FanDuel yet but if he makes the lineup I would assume he is north of +350.
Bleacher Seats – Aaron Hicks – OF – $2,700
My brother and I, Yankees fans, love to text about how little we care for Aaron Hicks and Joey Gallo. The latter is likely to not find the lineup but Hicks has been on a bit of a heater. He found something on this road trip and that confidence might persist this week.
Hicks’ horrible season keeps him in the Bleacher Seats despite the matchup and ballpark. Over the last 30 days, Hicks boasts a .360 ISO along with his 48.6% fly ball rate. We love nothing more than a hitter selling out for the fly ball in this column. Hicks gets added at a +560 price at the time of this writing.
I think a bet on one of these Yankees is likely to capture plenty back in free bets. I am not going to overthink this one. Let’s go Yanks!
Thanks so very much for reading. Give me a follow on Twitter for sports betting banter, golf tidbits, and professional wrestling reactions. We will see you again on Friday for a recap, leaderboard, and home run calls.
Player Image Credit: Imagn