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2023 MLB Home Run Derby Odds: Participants, Picks, and Predictions

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-07-10 21:44:06

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After going a perfect 7-for-7 in last year’s Home Run Derby preview article, MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida is back again with everything you need to know to bet on the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby odds tonight — Monday, July 10. Don’t live in a state with legal sports betting? Get in on the action by picking Home Run Derby props with our PrizePicks promo code.

Tonight, the MLB Home Run Derby will take place at T-Mobile Park in Seattle for the first time since 2021, when Luis Gonzalez took home the Derby Crown. This year’s field of eight sluggers is headlined by two-time Derby champion Pete Alonso of the New York Mets. Julio Rodriguez is the only other member of this evening’s festivities who participated in last year’s Derby at Dodger Stadium.

Two years ago, I wrote my first Home Run Derby preview, correctly selecting Pete Alonso (+450) to win the event. Last year, I went a perfect 7-for-7 in this article for RotoGrinders. Tonight will be the hardest Derby to predict for me to date, with five of the eight hitters making their first appearance in this exciting showcase.

Below, let’s look at the 2023 Home Run Derby odds, followed by some general statistics of interest before diving into our favorite wagers for Monday night’s Home Run Derby.
h2. 2023 Home Run Derby Odds & Field

The MLB Home Run Derby odds referenced herein are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and subject to change.

Home Run Derby – Weather Update

“The roof will be open today at T-Mobile Park, so weather will play a role in the HR Derby. The park is oriented to the northeast, which will have tonight’s southwesterly wind blowing out to center, aiding batters. That being said, winds are relatively light at just a bit over 5mph, and temperatures are fairly cool in the upper 60s. All in all I would consider hitting conditions tonight for the Derby as fairly neutral.” – RG Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth

Park Factors – T-Mobile Park

Park factors consistently play a major role in the Home Run Derby. Last year in this article, we detailed how Dodger Stadium had been much more kind to right-handed batters than left-handed batters, which was largely supported throughout the event. Two years ago, both finalists were right-handed batters in a venue that also had significant platoon splits. Similar park factors impacted the competition in Cleveland in 2019 and Petco Park in 2016 as well.

The interesting component of this analysis going into tonight’s action is that only Adley Rutschman will take swings from the left side of the plate. The other seven hitters in the field are each right-handed, making park factors less relevant tonight than previous seasons.

For what it is worth, T-Mobile Park has been much friendlier to right-handed batters than left-handed batters across the last three years. The split has been less profound in 2023, with the park playing relatively evenly to both right- and left-handed hitters.

What have these hitters been up to lately?

Similar to last year, we have provided a look at the 30-day rolling numbers for important metrics such as exit velocity, launch angle, and barrel percentage for each of tonight’s contests. Said another way, the above chart shows how hard these hitters have been hitting the baseball, and at what angle, compared to the preceding 30 days of action.

The numbers to the left-hand side of this graph are the raw numbers from June 9 to July 9. To the right side of the graph, green indicates an improvement in that metric compared to the preceding 30 days, whereas red indicates that the player is trending down in that particular metric.

Notably, Adolis Garcia and Mookie Betts have increased their average launch angle by 7.3° and 5.7°, respectively, across the last month. Still, neither of those increases is as significant as Juan Soto’s 11.0° increase ahead of last year’s event. Nonetheless, a concerted effort to hit the ball in the air more frequently is certainly a good thing to take note of when evaluating tonight’s talent.

Luis Robert has seen the largest increase in barrel rate in the last 30 days, followed by Garcia, Randy Arozarena, and Adley Rutschman. Looking at the raw data, Robert and Garcia are the two players with, by far, the highest frequency of barreled balls during that time period. Rutschman, despite recent gains in this department, had the lowest barrel rate of players in the field tonight during the last month of regular season baseball.

Unsurprisingly, Robert, Betts, and Garcia had the best power metrics to close the first half of the campaign – each player ranking in the top-three in the field in home runs, slugging percentage, ISO, launch angle, barrel rate, and fly ball percentage from June 9 to July 9.

Before rushing to fade or tail anyone based on these metrics alone, it is worth mentioning that there are other important factors to consider when looking at tonight’s bracket.

Home Run Derby Opening Round Matchups

PrizePicks Home Run Props – Round 1

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#1 – Luis Robert Jr. (-220) v. #8 – Adley Rutschman (+180)

Last year, we hit big on Albert Pujols (+270) as the 8-seed in this competition. This year, we are drinking juice on the favorite in this matchup. As mentioned above, Luis Robert Jr. has an abundance of positive-trending metrics leading into this event. Since June 9, he has 12 home runs, a .385 ISO, 21.1% barrel rate, and a 49.3% fly ball percentage. During that same stretch of time, Adley Rutschman has only four home runs, a .170 ISO, 7.6% barrel rate, and a 34.2% fly ball percentage. Robert Jr. also has an average exit velocity nearly six miles-per-hour better than Rutschman in that span. Both Robert Jr. and Rutschman are traveling from the central time zone, so there is no major travel advantage for either player. Both players were in the lineup, with Rutschman being behind the dish, meaning that Robert Jr. likely has a small stamina edge here. Do not overthink things here – trust Robert Jr. to get the job done.

#2 – Pete Alonso (-160) v. #7 – Julio Rodriguez (+135)

General disclaimer – Pete Alonso lives for the Derby. “This is everything I dreamed of as a young kid,” Alonso commented during an interview with ESPN after his Round 1 performance two years ago at Coors Field. Alonso loves this event so much that he is participating in spite of the fact that he was recently on the injured list with a bone bruise and sprain in his left wrist. The less exciting news for Alonso fans is that his power metrics have fallen off rather dramatically since his return to the field. Since June 18, he has four home runs, but only a .147 batting average and a .347 slugging percentage. Compared to his numbers from the preceding 30 days of action, Alonso has seen his launch angle and barrel rate fall off significantly – both of which can be indications that he isn’t playing at 100% health.

On the other side of this first round matchup, we have the hometown kid, Julio Rodriguez. Last summer, Rodriguez dazzled in this event as a major underdog en route to an appearance in the finals against Juan Soto. Rodriguez possesses some of the most elite bat speed in all of baseball, which makes him a perfect candidate for repeated success in this event. Prior to his debut in the Derby at Dodger Stadium, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times wrote about a 37-homer practice round that Rodriguez had during pregame batting practice at Globe Life Field.

In 2019, Alonso took 46 swings during the first four minutes of his opening round in Cleveland. He took another 46 swings in 2021. In 2022, Rodriguez took 51 swings in his opening round, counting bonus time to get to four minutes. There are a lot of reasons to like the underdog in this spot – health, bat speed, and of course, the hometown crowd.

#3 – Mookie Betts (+192) v. #6 – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-235)

Looking at the rolling windows data, this is a landslide matchup in favor of Mookie Betts. However, Betts is understandably priced as an underdog here, likely due to the incredible show that we all witnessed from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in Cleveland back in 2019. Guerrero. Jr. took 47 swings during his opening four minutes and likely could have pushed 50 swings if not for a couple of breathers.

Objectively, the most challenging aspect to predicting this matchup is the fact that Betts has never participated in the Home Run Derby before. Thus, we have no film to analyze his cadence, bat speed, or stamina. Nevertheless, the data that we do have on Betts is about as good as it possibly can be – posting a 23.4° launch angle from June 9 to July 9, in addition to hitting 10 home runs with a .398 ISO and a 60.2% HardHit percentage. Betts does not possess the same scoreboard-scraping power that Guerrero Jr. has, but that could actually help Betts get off a few more swings in this round. It also doesn’t hurt that Betts had an off-day yesterday while Guerrero Jr. played an extra-inning affair in Detroit, two time zones across the country.

I am the world’s biggest Mookie Betts fan, so I’m acknowledging my bias here for transparency – but I like his chances a lot against Guerrero Jr. here, especially at the price.

#4 – Adolis Garcia (-140) v. #5 – Randy Arozarena (+120)

It is somewhat rare to have two newbies competing against one another in the first round of the Home Run Derby. From a predictive standpoint, this is challenging because we have zero film on either player in this event.

Still, we have the rolling 30-day window data to examine. Above, we mentioned that Juan Soto has a +11.0° launch angle in the 30 days leading into the Derby in 2022. This year, Adolis Garcia is on the complete other end of that spectrum, having suffered a 6.4° drop-off while Randy Arozarena increased his launch angle by 6.7° in the same span.

Neither of these players presents an overwhelmingly positive profile in power metrics ahead of this event. Garcia has been trending down in terms of launch angle and barrel percentage. Arozarena hits too many ground balls and doesn’t have prodigious bat speed. In a coin-flip matchup, we are rolling with the underdog, counting on Arozarena shining under the bright lights, similar to his performance during the World Baseball Classic.

Home Run Derby Finals Prediction

Energy conservation is key in an event like this, which makes Luis Robert Jr. a great bet to get to the finals. Similar to Juan Soto in 2022, Robert Jr. should not need a massive opening round to get to the semi-finals. In the second round, he will face either Adolis Garcia or Randy Arozarena, neither of which possesses nearly as much bat speed or raw power as Robert Jr. From June 9 to July 9, Robert was unquestionably the league’s most impressive hitter from a power perspective – expect that to translate well to tonight’s action.

We backed Julio Rodriguez last season as a big underdog, but he has a number of concerning metrics heading into this event, which make it hard to trust him, despite the elite bat speed. In contrast, Mookie Betts is a highly intelligent player, who is smart enough to understand how to pace himself in an event like this. Betts certainly has the more difficult first-round opponent, but he also has more rest than any other participant this year, due to the Los Angeles Dodgers having a scheduled off-day on Sunday. Rodriguez has not had an off-day since June 29 and had to fly from Texas after a battle with the Texas Rangers yesterday. There are worse things to do with your money than bet on the best player in the National League to make the finals in this event.

Home Run Derby Winner

Last summer, Julio Rodriguez put on the most impressive display of power, but he ultimately ran out of gas in the finals, allowing the much-less impressive Juan Soto to emerge as the winner. We could see a similar script tonight with Luis Robert Jr., who is unlikely to be challenged too much prior to the final round. Whereas Mookie Betts will have to contend with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and likely Julio Rodriguez, Robert Jr. may not even have to use his bonus time against Adley Rutschman, and should be able to pace himself against his round two opponent. Robert Jr. is set up for success this evening in Seattle – he is our guy as we look to correctly predict our third consecutive winner in the Home Run Derby.

Best of luck to everyone! Enjoy the event and bet responsibly!

Image Credit: Getty Images

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom