Last Minute Research: NFL Week 6

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-10-13 06:05:12

Week Six comes with an interesting layout of games. Only 2 teams take a bye this week so it’s nearly a full-slate. We’re also reaching a point in the season where team stats are becoming more and more concrete. This is great news for anyone who likes stats, and something we’ll look to exploit in this week’s Last Minute Research column.

As a reminder, the purpose of this article is to highlight some of our NFL Daily Research tools by introducing you to most of the tools as well as depicting different ways to use or interpret them.

Have a question about a specific research tool? Feel free to post in the comments or check the links beneath each section for FAQ-related answers

Last Week’s Targets

Shown below are all wide receivers or tight ends with at least 10 targets in Week 5. Players shown in red have already played this week or are on a bye

Other Notable Cheap Players: Brandon Lafell (9 targets), Keenan Allen (9 targets), Doug Baldwin (9 targets), Kendall Wright (8 targets)

NOTES:

• Very few value guys surpassed the 10 target mark last week, which is surprising considering how many value wideouts had huge games.
• I’d be all over Robert Woods if practice squad QB Thaddeus Lewis wasn’t getting the start this weekend. Woods and Manuel seemed to be developing a great rapport (and he was averaging over 10 targets per game in the last 3 weeks).
• Steve Smith’s 10 targets last week added up to just 4 catches for 60 yards. Newton couldn’t stay upright against ARI’s pass rush and it led to the Newton/Smith connection struggling. This week should be different against a much more porous defense.
• Golden Tate saw 11 targets last weekend but hauled in just 5 balls. Getting into the end zone helps, but on the season he has just 18 receptions on 32 targets. That’s a number that needs to be better for such a heavy risk play.
• Jimmy Graham returned to the 10 target club last week. Fellow tight ends Julius Thomas, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez all joined him. Those are also the top-5 most expensive TE’s on any site while Gronk remains out. It really seems like paying up for the TE position is the way to go right now.

LINKS

• Week to Week WR Target Stats
• Week to Week TE Target Stats
• General Target Stats

Defense vs. Position Stats: Running Backs

Shown below are all team defenses allowing over 100 yards per game to opposing running backs through six weeks of play

Notes:

• Buffalo’s #4 overall ranking against RB’s is clearly deceiving and more due to a lack of TD’s allowed than a dominant success against backs. Look for Bernard and Green-Ellis to move the ball on the ground.
• The Pittsburgh defense that was once frightening is now much more docile. With that said they’re coming off a bye and the Jets run situation is murky.
• The Pats D without Wilfork is awful up front, and they had been struggling against the rush before that. If NO had a good ground rusher, I’d say he’s a tremendous option this week. Instead you may have to look for Pierre Thomas to have another good week.
• Foster vs. St Louis and Murray vs. Washington are two backs who aren’t in the top-3 on any site for RB’s and could pay huge dividends this weekend.

Defense vs. Position Stats: Tight Ends

Shown below are all defenses allowing 6 or more receptions per game to opposing tight ends

NOTES:

• What an array of options. My favorite value play of the week may be Jordan Reed though for Washington. He’s min priced and we all saw Dallas’ linebackers get fully exposed by Julius Thomas in Week 5.
• I sorted these by receptions allowed because every site has at least a half point PPR scoring system, making catches so valuable.
• I’m not going to take credit for this (or blame?), but our own Cal Spears said he’d consider Clay Harbor on a tight cap site like DraftStreet for GPPs this weekend. The matchup backs him up and he’s just over $2K.
• Vernon Davis, Jimmy Graham and Jordan Cameron may be forgotten men after Thomas’ went off in Week 5, but they are all better options on paper than Julius this weekend.
• There are A LOT of numbers that point to Vernon Davis being a great play this weekend.

LINKS:

• Defense vs. QBs
• Defense vs. RBs
• Defense vs. WRs
• Defense vs. TEs

Running Back Time Shares: Snap Counts

Shown below are a number of teams with running backs who are either in time shares or positional battles and their snap count percentages from Weeks 3, 4 and 5

NOTES:

• Mendenhall/Ellington has shifted to a dead even split just a week after Mendenhall saw 2/3 of the snaps.
• Bernard and Green-Ellis split snaps against New England, just one week after Bernard had his coming out party and was on the field for 75% of plays. I think this situation will be dictated based on matchup need as the season continues and the Bills could see more Gio than the Law Firm on Sunday.
• Willis McGahee came on in Week 5 and was actually pretty solid. As he continues to get familiar with the offense, his snap counts have risen.
• Moreno is running away from the other backs in games that are somewhat close, but if you look back two weeks in their last blowout, the split was actually in favor of Hillman at 41% of snaps.
• Arian Foster looks like he’ll see the field in about 60-70% of snaps as long as he’s healthy. That’s great news for anyone looking to pay for Foster.
• Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles had back to back weeks with each playing right around 40-60% of snaps, but Thomas stole the show in Week 5 and was on the field at a 73% clip.
• Danny Woodhead played nearly 65% of snaps and Ryan Mathews is clearly again being phased out of the offense. Even if he’s out this week, Woodhead is the best RB to play in San Diego.

LINKS:

• Running Back Snap Count Percentages by Week
• Running Back Total Plays by Week

Market Watch

Shown below are the three biggest average salary increases/decreases across all 7 sites for each position from Week 5 to Week 6.

NOTES:

• Matchups driving player salaries couldn’t be more clearly seen than by showing how Andrew Luck, who had an average but not great game in Week 5, was the 2nd highest QB increase this week. His salary went up on every site except StarStreet.
• The 3 QBs who dropped significantly this week are all guys who were probably drafted as Top-10 quarterbacks in season long. They’re all still extremely talented and might be nice ‘buy-low’ plays this weekend.
• I might as well have just listed “The Detroit Lions in this section as the biggest salary depressions. Their matchup this week isn’t ideal but you can get a discount on a number of extremely talented players.
• Knowshown’s price increase and the potential blowout factor in Sunday’s game are both huge red flags for me.
• I guess that extreme late night Sunday game between the Raiders and Chargers was rough for running backs huh?
• The only site Keenan Allen price didn’t increase on this week was FanDuel
• Julian Edelman has fallen off the face of the earth recently, but he still has one of the highest ceilings for PPR players and is in a game that’s projected to be high scoring this weekend.
• Jordan Cameron has one bad game and his price plummets. You’d be crazy not to take advantage of his talent at such a low tag on certain sites.

LINKS:

• Quarterback Market Watch
• Running Back Market Watch
• Wide Receiver Market Watch
• Tight End Market Watch

Defenses

Shown below are the 5 highest scoring teams, in terms of fantasy points per game, playing this weekend.

NOTES:

• Buffalo is finally getting after the quarterback and it’s paying huge dividends for their fantasy output. Flacco tossing 5 INT’s in one game didn’t hurt either. Dalton could struggle in this one if he can’t be comfortable in the pocket.
• Defensive scoring for fantasy and strong defense are clearly not one in the same. 3 of the 5 teams listed above are allowing over 300 pass yards per game.
• So what’s the secret? It appears to be forcing turnovers, an area where all of these teams have excelled.
• Here’s how many turnovers per game the opponents for Week 6 of the defenses above are averaging: CAR-2.25, JAX-2.20, CIN-2.20, WAS-1.75, OAK-1.20

LINKS:

• Team Defense Stats
• Defense Matchup Stats

Wide Receiver Ceilings

Shown below are the top-5 wide receivers in terms of standard deviation of fantasy point performances this season. Players who already played or are on a bye are not included

NOTES:

• Most of these guys make for great upside plays in GPPs coming off a bad week, because of the volatility shown above. Boldin and Green both struggled mightily last week but both are risk/reward plays (in good matchups too).
• Eddie Royal standard deviation comes from Rivers no longer involving him in the offense. I’d avoid unless he starts seeing more targets.
• Hilton is an absolute hit or miss play. He’ll have an opportunity to make a few big plays each game and if those plays hit, you’ll see a monster output.
• I’d be willing to bet Antonio Brown drops off this list as the season goes on. His PPR ability should help him maintain a more consistent output.

LINKS:

• Quarterback Ceiling and Consistency Stats
• Running Back Ceiling and Consistency Stats
• Wide Receiver Ceiling and Consistency Stats
• Tight End Ceiling and Consistency Stats

NFL Vegas Odds and Lines

Shown below are the 5 highest scoring projected games this weekend in terms of point totals

NOTES:

• Given how successful a ‘game-stack’ in DEN/DAL was last week, these might be some good spots to try and do the same.
• Denver -26.5 (opened at -28) was the biggest spread since the NFL/AFL merger. I think it’s safe to say that the Broncos should put up some points but with great spreads does not come great fantasy output. Peyton could easily be done after 2.5 or 3 quarters.
• With a spread that large, I tend to look at the other side and say that their passing game will be picking up a TON of garbage points. Value Jaguars receivers are worth a look.
• Romo and company are again likely to be involved in a high scoring affair…if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it?
• 4 of the 5 games listed above start at 4 PM or later, so you might need to be patient with your fantasy lineups this week past the 1 PM kickoffs.
• 3 of the games above have a spread of 3 points or less.

That does it for this week’s column, hope you found the information helpful and if there’s anything you liked in past weeks that I didn’t include, or anything in general you’d like to see, feel free to comment below. Good luck this weekend!