Lions vs. Packers Player Props: Bets for Rodgers, Adams & Hockenson
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were embarrassed in their season opener, but are they poised to bounce back on Monday Night Football? Andy Means breaks down a few of his favorite player props before tonight’s NFC North showdown kicks off. For more NFL betting picks, check out Nick Galaida’s Lions vs. Packers preview
Green Bay Packers Player Prop Bets
Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+110 at BetMGM)
Few (if any) projection systems will say this is a good play. And that is perfectly fine with me, because that is probably why we are getting plus odds on it.
The stink on Rodgers from Week 1 is now about eight days deep. You know Rodgers is acutely aware of the perception of him right now (even if he says he isn’t) after the absurdly dramatic offseason between he and this Green Bay franchise.
So what’s the best way to change that perception? To absolutely obliterate an overmatched Lions defense in Lambeau. A Lions defense that lost their best cornerback, Jeff Okudah, to a ruptured Achilles tendon that he suffered in Week 1.
Sure, this matchup sets up great for Aaron Jones and the Packers backfield as well. But I expect Rodgers to go out of his way to stuff his own stat sheet tonight. 3rd and goal from the one-yard line? Let’s check out of that run to a pass. Up by 20+ late in the fourth quarter? Screw it, let’s keep chucking.
The Packers have a team total of 30+ points, and I’m supposed to sit here and expect Aaron freakin’ Rodgers to account for two touchdowns or less of all of those points?? Hard pass! Give me the over 2.5 TDs, and give me those plus odds. Please and thank you.
Davante Adams to Score a Touchdown (-150 at DraftKings)
If I am expecting Rodgers to stuff his own stat sheet tonight, then it stands to reason that he would throw to this Davante Adams fella to get the most bang for his buck. And speaking of bang for a buck, DraftKings has the best odds on this Adams prop. For comparison, FanDuel has it all the way up at -195 at the time I am writing this.
Obviously, if we are counting on a big game from the Packers offense tonight, we are basically throwing Week 1 out the window. So if we look back to last season, Adams was damn near lapping fools when it comes to Red Zone targets. Per Pro Football Reference, he was first in targets in both “Inside the 10” and “Inside the 20”. And as you will see, it was not exactly close either!
INSIDE THE 10
Davante Adams: 20 targets, 17 receptions, 85% Ctch%, 13 TDs
Mike Evans: 14 targets, 9 receptions, 64.29% Ctch%, 9 TDs
Travis Kelce: 13 targets, 8 receptions, 61.54% Ctch%, 7 TDs
Adam Thielen: 13 targets, 11 receptions, 84.62% Ctch%, 10 TDs
INSIDE THE 20
Davante Adams: 28 targets, 23 receptions, 82.14% Ctch%, 14 TDs
Darren Waller: 22 targets, 18 receptions, 81.82% Ctch%, 6 TDs
Travis Kelce: 20 targets, 13 receptions, 65% Ctch%, 9 TDs
Calvin Ridley: 20 targets, 11 receptions, 55% Ctch%, 7 TDs
Adams is scoring a touchdown tonight, one way or another. It could be a deep ball where he is able to get behind the defense. It could be something intermediate inside the 20. Or it could be from the one-yard line. But the guy is scoring a touchdown tonight. Well, at least, he better!
Detroit Lions Player Prop Bets
T.J. Hockenson Over 4.5 Receptions (-145 at Caesars)
Hockenson is coming off of a Week 1 performance that saw him play 85% of the snaps and haul in 11 targets. Furthermore, Tyrell Williams, one of Detroit’s “top” receivers, is out with a concussion for tonight’s game.
So outside of Hockenson, Jared Goff will be throwing the ball to wide receivers named Kalif Raymond, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Trinity Benson, and Quintez Cephus. D’Andre Swift (assuming he plays) and Jamaal Williams will of course be involved in the passing game too. But I think it’s safe to say that the talent on this offense is certainly not in the wide receivers corps.
Projections have this as more of a coin flip, but I honestly just don’t see it that way. In Week 1, Goff was clearly locked on to Hockenson and his running backs (Swift had 11 targets; Williams had 9). The Lions are double-digit underdogs in this one, so it is very likely we see a similar game script here that we saw in Week 1.
The only thing I hate about this is having to pay so much juice, but it is what it is. The bottom line is that I think Hock should clear this rather easily. So if I gotta pay that much juice, I gotta pay that much juice.
Image Credit Imagn