MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, August 16th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Split the picks again last week. Easy win for the LAA/WSH first 5 innings under, as Jose Soriano and Mitchell Parker both pitched well. That line shouldn’t have been 5 runs. Soriano continues to pitch well; going right back to him today. Robbie Ray managed to get through 6 IP on Friday and of course collapsed in his most recent start. He might be on the Do Not Bet list moving forward.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 12-7-1
- Prop Picks: 10-10
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-135 on DraftKings)
Soriano and Spencer Schwellenbach have been two of my favorite pitchers to bet on recently. They’re getting it done in different ways, but they’ve both been red-hot since the start of July, and the books never seem to respect them.
Soriano has allowed 1 ER or less in 4 of his last 5 starts and posted a 3.13 ERA since the start of July. He continues to pile up ground balls (97th percentile), and he’s even flashed some strikeout upside recently, with 13 Ks across his 2 August starts. Atlanta has been middling against RHP over the past 30 days (17th in wRC+). The Braves finally got Michael Harris back, only to lose Jorge Soler to a hamstring injury. Outside of Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Olson up top, it’s an unimposing lineup.
Schwellenbach got off to a bit of a slow start to his career, posting a 5.68 ERA over his first 6 starts. His next 6 starts have been tremendous, with a 2.54 ERA and a ridiculous 45:3 K:BB. Schwellenbach’s ERA for the season is still up near 4.00, but his xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all down in the low-3.00s. He gets a great matchup, facing a Los Angeles squad with the 4th-lowest wRC+ against RHP over the past 30 days.
I’d play this up to -150. Would expect it to move to 4 at most books.
Ryan Pepiot Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150 on DraftKings)
Baseball players are known for weird injuries, and Pepiot’s recent ailment belongs on the list. He had to be hospitalized with an infection believed to be from a spider bite that was so bad he couldn’t walk. Tampa Bay’s head trainer had to carry Pepiot into the hospital, where he spent several days until the swelling went down. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported that Pepiot has made a full recovery, “with just a small amount of inflammation remaining in the knee (from softball to marble size).” Not sure I’d agree about it being a “full” recovery if Pepiot still has some inflammation in the knee. He’s been sidelined for more than a month and made only one rehab appearance, going 3.1 IP. I’d be surprised if he didn’t deal with workload limitations in his first start back.
Pepiot has been solid from a strikeout perspective this season, posting a career-high 26.7% K%. He’s struggled with hard contact and fly balls, which is why his ERA and ERA estimators are right around 4.00. Walks have also been an issues at times, as Pepiot had 12 BBs in his last 5 starts prior to hitting the IL.
Arizona has been one of the best offenses in baseball against RHP over the past 30 days, ranking 2nd in wRC+ and 1st in OPS and wOBA. They also have the 4th-lowest strikeout rate and the 3rd-highest walk rate. It’s a difficult matchup, and this line seems about a strikeout too high considering the likely workload limitations.
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