MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, August 23rd)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
We had a couple of wins last week. Spencer Schwellenbach pitched well again, while Jose Soriano unfortunately left with an arm injury during the 4th inning. The bullpen tossed a couple of scoreless frames to preserve the first 5 innings under. Ryan Pepiot looked solid in his return but only managed 5 Ks. Good stuff; I will look to keep it rolling.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 13-7-1
- Prop Picks: 11-10
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Yankees 2nd Inning 0 Runs (-140 on BetMGM)
Alright, this is a weird one, but it’s worth it. The main idea is fading these offenses while removing Juan Soto and Aaron Judge from the situation. They’re the only viable hitters for New York right now, and Colorado has been awful against lefties.
Patrick Corbin just dominated this Rockies lineup for 6 innings, so Carlos Rodon shouldn’t have much trouble. Colorado ranks 28th or worse in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefties since the start of July. They lead the league in strikeout rate over that stretch at 30.6%, and tonight’s projected lineup is at a ridiculous 31.6% K% vs. LHP this season. Home runs and walks have been the issues for Rodon when he’s struggled, but the Rockies have the 10th-lowest ISO and 6th-lowest BB% against lefties since the start of July.
Soto and Judge are terrifying, but they bat 2nd and 3rd. Unless the 1st inning is an incredible disaster, Freeland won’t have to deal with them in the 2nd inning. The bottom-6 hitters in the projected New York lineup includes just one hitter with a wOBA over .315 and one hitter with an ISO over .140 against lefties this season. Freeland’s season-long numbers are horrible, but they’re heavily weighted toward a 4-start stretch to begin the season, where he gave up 23 ERs. He spent 2 months on the IL with an elbow strain after that run, then returned and has been pretty effective. Freeland has a 3.97 ERA supported by a 3.85 xFIP and a 4.03 SIERA in 10 starts since the injury. He has a respectable 21.6% K% and a 5.6% BB% in that span. It’s nothing special, but it’s good enough to handle the back half of this lineup.
The books label this bet differently, so you might see it called “2nd Inning – Either team to score?” or “2nd Inning – Total runs.” It’s all the same thing. We’re looking for a scoreless 2nd inning.
Bailey Falter Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150 on bet365)
I lean a lot on recent performance for hitting matchups. Typically, I’ll focus on the past 30 days against right-handed pitching and the past 2 months against left-handed pitching. I like getting 400+ plate appearances in the sample to get a good feel for how an offense has done recently. However, it’s also important to compare this to the projected lineup. Our MLB team projections do a great job following the news and posting lineups that are usually on point. Lines will move once official lineups are announced, so it’s helpful to rely on the projected lineups to get ahead of any movement.
Cincinnati looks like a good strikeout matchup, but they’ve made some recent additions to become more contact-oriented. They have the 4th-highest strikeout rate against lefties since the start of July at 29.9%, and yet tonight’s projected lineup is down at 22% across 1,062 plate appearances. It makes sense given their recent roster moves. The Reds scooped up Ty France and Amed Rosario off waivers, giving them two low-strikeout righties to add to the mix against lefties. Santiago Espinal has also earned more playing time lately, starting five straight games, and should be in there regularly with Jeimer Candelario hitting the IL. Espinal has the lowest K% vs. LHP on the team.
Falter struck out 8 out of nowhere in an amazing matchup against Seattle last time out but had a total of 8 Ks in his last 4 starts prior to facing the Mariners. He has a 17.1% K% this season, the 7th-lowest mark among pitchers with at least 100 IP. His 8.8% swinging-strike rate is tied for the 14th-lowest in that group.
Falter throws his 4-seam fastball half the time (50.3%), and it’s easily been his best pitch by run value. It’s responsible for 38 of his 75 strikeouts this season. This projected lineup for the Reds has pounded left-handed fastballs since the start of 2023, combining for a .216 ISO, a .383 wOBA, and a 51.2% hard-hit rate. Cincinnati matches up really well here.
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