MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, June 21st)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
We split the picks last week. Max Meyer did not return to make the start against the Nationals, with Miami opting to throw Shaun Anderson out there. He got obliterated. MacKenzie Gore was great on the other side, so it still could’ve worked out. It happens. Tarik Skubal pitching decently against Houston, but he managed just 2 Ks. An easy win there.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 5-6-1
- Prop Picks: 7-5
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-155 on BetMGM)
This bet has been selected by the ScoresAndOdds staff to be today’s Squad Ride! If you aren’t familiar with the #squadride, it’s a daily bet selected by a member of the SAO team. They choose their favorite pick from the rest of the team, and we all tail it together. Join the squad-rides channel in Discord if you want to follow along!
Jack Flaherty got some extra time off prior to his last start due to a back injury, but he returned last weekend and fired 5 scoreless innings against Houston. He’s now tossed 3 straight scoreless outings to bring his ERA down to 3.01. Flaherty’s xERA (2.67), xFIP (2.17), and SIERA (2.33) are all much lower than that mark. He leads the league in K-BB% and CSW%. It’s the best version of Flaherty we’ve ever seen.
Erick Fedde doesn’t have Flaherty’s gaudy strikeout numbers, but he’s excelled by limiting hard contact and racking up ground balls. He’s kept hitters off-balance by throwing 4 different pitches at least 20% of the time. Each offering has a positive run value aside from the sinker. Fedde has allowed 3 ERs or fewer in 4 of his last 5 starts, bringing his ERA to 3.09. The ERA estimators have Fedde in the mid-3.00s.
Both of these offenses have struggled mightily against right-handed pitching. They rank 24th or worse in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ over the past 30 days. Chicago remains dead last in overall scoring, with 32 fewer runs than the next-closest team (Miami). Two weak lineups facing a pair of tough pitchers — sounds like a good combination.
Yariel Rodriguez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160 on DraftKings)
Rodriguez has missed nearly 2 months with a back injury but will be activated from the IL to start against Cleveland. He didn’t pitch professionally last year, and Toronto used him carefully when he first entered the rotation back in April. Rodriguez made 4 starts prior to his injury, working 3-4 innings in every outing, and he topped out at 83 pitches. His minor league rehab assignment went similarly, with Rodriguez making 7 appearances but only totaling 14 IP. He completed 4 IP just once.
Rodriguez has been an average strikeout pitcher across his 4 outings (22.2% K%). He was right at a strikeout per inning in his limited sample. Now, he faces the most difficult matchup in the league. Cleveland has a league-leading 16.1% K% vs. RHP over the past 30 days. Their projected lineup has just a 15.8% K% against righties across 1,348 plate appearances this season. The only vulnerable bat is Bo Naylor, and he’s hit 9th in each of his last 6 starts. Rodriguez will likely only face him one time.
This rotation spot has belonged to Bowden Francis at times, and he’s only thrown 1 inning since Saturday. Francis is certainly a candidate to tag-team the outing with Rodriguez. It’s hard to imagine Rodriguez going beyond 4 IP given how carefully his workload has been managed, along with this being his first start back following an extended injury absence. He’d likely need to work through this lineup multiple times to reach 4 strikeouts, which seems unlikely.
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