MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, June 7th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
It was a tough one last week. Seattle walked it off in the bottom of the 5th with a run to hit the first 5 innings over. Bryan Woo was awesome, but Jose Soriano couldn’t close it out on the other side. Bailey Falter racked up 5 strikeouts against Toronto. Definitely didn’t see that coming.
Gotta turn the page and get back at it tonight.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 5-4-1
- Prop Picks: 6-4
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox First 5 Innings Under 4 Runs (-110 on BetMGM)
Garrett Crochet and Cooper Criswell have both pitched well, and they’re getting good matchups. I think we see a low-scoring affair here.
Crochet has dominated in his transition to the rotation, leading the league in strikeout rate and ranking 3rd in strikeouts. He’s 6th in swinging-strike rate and 11th in CSW%. Crochet ranks 84th percentile in average exit velocity with a league-average ground-ball rate. He’s probably been a bit unlucky with a 14.1% HR/FB, especially given the current run environment. Crochet’s 3.49 ERA is fine, but his ERA estimators are much lower. His xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all 2.50 or lower.
Criswell doesn’t have Crochet’s gaudy strikeout numbers, though he’s still been quite effective. He’s allowed 2 ERs or less in all but 2 appearances, and he’s really only had a single bad start. Baltimore got to him for 7 ERs over 4 IP a couple of starts back, but he had a 2.86 ERA heading into that outing and got right back on track last time out with 5 innings of 1-run ball against Detroit. Criswell’s ERA estimators are all near 3.50.
The Red Sox have been below average against lefties, and they lead the league by a significant margin in K% vs. LHP. The White Sox have been a bottom-5 offense vs. RHP over the past 30 days and remain the most inept offense in the league. Chicago is dead last in scoring, and they’re behind 29th-place Miami by 40+ runs.
Justin Steele Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140 on DraftKings)
Steele’s 22.5% K% is basically league average, but it’s the lowest mark of his career. His 8.8% swinging-strike rate is also a career-low. To put that number in context, it would be tied with Patrick Corbin for the 13th-lowest in the league if Steele had enough innings to qualify. It would be just ahead of Bailey Falter and just behind Cal Quantrill. It’s not the company you want to be in.
Steele has significant strikeout splits in his career, punching out an elite 30.1% of lefties but a mediocre 22.7% of righties. He’s at 25.7% vs. lefties and 21.7% against righties this season. That’s likely going to be a problem against this Cincinnati squad.
The Reds are 20th in K% vs. LHP on the season (20.5%), but tonight’s projected lineup has been much more stingy. Cincinnati’s projected group has just a 16.6% K% against lefties across 506 plate appearances this season. More importantly, there is just one lefty in the bunch, and it’s the low-strikeout TJ Friedl (15.4% career K% vs. LHP).
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