MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, May 17th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Push and a loss last week. Tough one. An unearned run in the 5th inning resulted in a push for the Pittsburgh/Chicago first 5 innings total. Clarke Schmidt cruised against Tampa Bay, not only reaching 6 IP for the first time but pitching into the 7th inning. We’ll bounce back this week.
Got a ladder play today! First time we’ve rolled out one of those in the article. More of a step stool, as it’s just one extra leg. Still fun though!
Season Record
- Game Picks: 4-2-1
- Prop Picks: 4-3
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-154 on FanDuel)
Two struggling offenses and a couple promising young arms. Think we see a pitching battle here.
Jesus Luzardo came back from a brief injury absence and fired 5.2 innings of 2-run ball against a loaded Philadelphia lineup. His line looks rough this season, though it’s skewed by two bad outings. Luzardo gave up 12 ERs against the Yankees and Braves but has held opponents to 3 ERs or less in all of his other outings. His 4.45 xERA compared to a 5.97 ERA suggests he’s been a bit unlucky. The strikeout rate is still well above average, and the swinging-strike rate is actually at a career-high level. Luzardo would be tied for 6th in the league in SwStr% if he qualified.
Top prospect Christian Scott has hit the ground running, tossing a pair of quality starts to begin his career. He’s piled up 14 Ks to just 3 BBs while limiting hard contact against two good offenses (Tampa Bay and Atlanta). This will be his easiest matchup by far.
Miami is 25th or worse in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against RHP over the past 30 days. The departure of Luis Arraez leaves this lineup with only a few MLB-caliber hitters. New York hasn’t been much better, posting a 90 wRC+ against LHP this season. They’ve added J.D. Martinez to the mix but remain without Francisco Alvarez. They brought up Mark Vientos to platoon at 3B against LHP, despite his career 30.5% K% vs. LHP. Both of these offenses are bottom 10 in first 5 innings scoring.
James Paxton Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160 on DraftKings), Paxton Under 4.5 Strikeouts (half unit at +128 on FanDuel)
Paxton’s 2024 season has been nothing short of miraculous, and not necessarily in a good way. He somehow tossed 6 scoreless innings against San Diego last time out, lowering his ERA to 2.58. His xERA is a comical 5.89, and he still has more walks than strikeouts. Paxton is now 6th percentile in K% and BB% while being below average in hard contact and ground-ball rate. And yet, a 2.58 ERA. It’s one of the more improbable stretches for a pitcher in recent memory.
Run-prevention voodoo aside, the strikeouts are what matters for this pick. Paxton’s swinging-strike rate has tumbled to 8.3%, his worst mark since 2015. His 24% CSW% is the lowest of his career. Paxton’s velocity remains down on all of his pitches. The fastball sat at 93.8 mph vs. the Padres, right in line with where it’s been this season (93.5 mph), which is 1.7 ticks lower than in 2023. Paxton is actually throwing the fastball 6% more often this season, which is an interesting choice. He’s basically throwing just the 4-seamer and curveball, despite the cutter and changeup serving as above-average whiff pitches in 2023.
Cincinnati ranks 13th in strikeout rate vs. LHP. Tonight’s projected lineup has a 21.% K% against LHP this season. Perhaps more importantly, the Reds lead the league in BB% vs. LHP at a whopping 11.1%. Their projected lineup is all the way up at 13.4% over 435 plate appearances in 2024.
For the game-log folks, Paxton hasn’t had 6 Ks in a start this season. He’s had 5 Ks once, back in his first start of the season. FanDuel is already down to 4.5, and I’m guessing the line keeps moving in this direction. I probably would’ve opened it at 4.5 and closer to even money. Getting another half unit more down at +128 feels like solid value, so I’m hitting that line as well.
Image Credit: Getty Images