MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, May 24th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Big one last week. Hit everything, including the Paxton ladder. Christian Scott made things interesting for the NYM/MIA first 5 innings under, but Jesus Luzardo held things down and we survived. Paxton didn’t make things interesting, never even threatening the over. Oh, and he starts again today…
Season Record
- Game Picks: 5-2-1
- Prop Picks: 5-3
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-130 on BetMGM)
This is an intriguing matchup, both in terms of the approach and the sample size. Tampa Bay is going the opener/bulk-reliever route, and I like how it sets up for them. Seth Lugo has been one of the best pitchers in the league over two months, after being more like pretty good for the past two seasons.
Shawn Armstrong will get the ball for the Rays, likely for just the 1st inning. He’s been extremely tough on righties, striking them out 31.1% of the time and allowing a .088 ISO and .267 wOBA. Kansas City’s lineup starts with two righties (Garcia, Witt), a lefty (Pasquantino), and then another righty (Perez).
Armstrong will turn it over to Tyler Alexander, who has held lefties to a .196 BA and .258 wOBA. After Perez, the Royals will likely have three lefties and two righties. All five hitters in that stretch have struggled mightily against LHP this season. Alexander could run into some trouble when he gets back to the top of the order, but that’s a pretty narrow window for this KC offense to find success in the first half of this game.
On the other side, Lugo has been phenomenal through 10 starts. He’s allowed 2 ERs or less in all but one outing. Lugo is tied for the league league with 8 quality starts. His 1.79 ERA won’t last, but the ERA estimators are all solid (3.58 xERA, 3.56 xFIP, 3.61 SIERA). He’s getting it done with an incredibly wide arsenal, throwing 7 pitches at least 6% of the time. His 4 most-used pitches (4-seamer, sinker, curveball, slider) all have run values of 3 or better. The Rays have a 96 wRC against RHP over the past 30 days. Righty-masher Josh Lowe will almost certainly be out of the lineup with an injury. Tonight’s projected lineup has just a .116 ISO and a .295 wOBA vs. RHP this season.
Like the setup for both (all three?) of the pitchers. Would expect a low-scoring game early on.
James Paxton Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120 on DraftKings)
Yep, right back to it. Same matchup, and the line hasn’t adjusted enough. Actually got it at plus money this morning, and it’s continued to move toward the under. Paxton managed just 2 Ks, his velocity remained down, and he generated a tiny 6.5% swinging-strike rate last time out against this Cincinnati squad.
Paxton now has a perfectly even 24:24 K:BB ratio. His ERA remains great (2.84), and his underlying stats remain terrible (5.55 xERA, 5.86 SIERA). Paxton is down to 5th percentile in K%. His 8% swinging-strike rate is his worst mark since 2015, and his 23.4% CSW% is the lowest of his career.
Again, it’s a repeat of last week’s matchup, and it’s still a tough one. Cincinnati is 17th in K% and 1st in BB% vs. LHP. Tonight’s projected lineup has a 21% K% and an 11.1% BB% in 489 plate appearances against LHP this season.
For the game-log folks, Paxton has had 5 Ks just once this season, back in his first start of the year.
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