MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, May 31st)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Split the picks last week. Tyler Alexander struggled mightily after coming in behind Shawn Armstrong. Seth Lugo held up his end, but Alexander getting crushed didn’t give us a chance. The James Paxton fade was once again successful. He’s trending toward being my most profitable player this season.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 5-3-1
- Prop Picks: 6-3
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners First 5 Innings Under 3.5 Runs (-125 on DraftKings)
It has become extremely hard to hit at T-Mobile Park. The stadium has the lowest 3-year rolling average park factor in the league at 92, and it’s all the way down to 85 in 2024. Seattle has struggled to hit everywhere, and they’re 92 wRC+ vs. RHP at home ranks 24th. Their strikeout rate is a massive 31.2% against RHP at home.
Angel Stadium has been the opposite. The venue actually leads the league in park factor this season and ranks 7th for the 3-year rolling average. The Angels have been a much better offense at home and rank 25th in 2RC+ against RHP on the road.
Jose Soriano has excelled through 5 starts in May, posting a 2.73 ERA and a 28:9 K:BB. Limiting walks is key for him, and he’s had 2 BBs or less in all but 1 start this month. It doesn’t hurt that Seattle ranks 22nd in BB% vs. RHP in May.
Bryan Woo has been phenomenal over his 4 starts, with a 1.66 ERA supported by a pristine 2.18 xERA. He seems to have finally solved lefties, holding them to a .089 ISO and .196 wOBA so far, albeit in a small sample.
Love the ballpark angle here, along with the skills of both pitchers. Low number but would expect both of these offenses to get off to slow starts. Keeping it to the first 5 innings given the struggles of LA’s bullpen.
Bailey Falter Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140 on BetMGM)
Tough spot for Falter, who is already a low-strikeout pitcher. This will likely keep trending toward the under, and we might see some 2.5s pop up.
Toronto has the 3rd-lowest strikeout rate vs. LHP this season at 18.1%. Tonight’s projected lineup is even more contact-oriented, with a 16.1% K% in 385 plate appearances against LHP this season. That would rank just behind Houston for the best mark in the league.
Falter has posted a career-low 14.5% K%, which ranks in the 9th percentile. He’s throwing a 91.5-MPH fastball more than half the time, and it has 20 of his 33 strikeouts. The pitch has a weak 18.7% whiff rate. Toronto’s projected lineup has just a 17.1% K% vs. left-handed fastballs since the start of 2023. Falter has just 10 Ks in 28.1 IP in May. Would not expect him to add too much to that total tonight.
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