MLB Daily Grind Down: Friday, July 5th

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-07-05 18:54:04

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

The summer is quickly winding down to halt. This is good news to many of us because that means football season is around the corner. There are only a few spots left for many of these big events so take advantage of things while you can. Here is today’s Daily Grind Down to get you ready for another huge night in the industry.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

CHC vs. PIT

• Favored Team – PIT -132

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Jeff Samardzija is actually worse at home with a 4.11 ERA and that number is not inflated by 1 or 2 bad starts. It seems he always gives up 3 or more ER at home no matter whom he faces. A hot PIT team does not look like the spot to reverse the trend. PIT is batting .238 on the road, .244 versus right-handers, and .252 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away Francisco Liriano had a great season with the Twins a few years back. He is only 29 and is having a great season with PIT. His road ERA is a very nice 2.40 and he catches a CHC team that has struggled all year. CHC is batting .259 at home, .240 versus left-handers, and .244 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home Alfonso Soriano has turned it on finally with 33 fp over the last week and he is batting .306 versus left-handers. I also like the righty/lefty splits of Starlin Castro. He has not done much this year so his price is cheap. RG Stack Rating 2

• Away Andrew McCuthchen has been red hot with 31 fp over the last 7 days. He is 7-19 versus Samardzija. Presley and Tabata are both batting over .300 versus right-handers. RG Stack Rating 2

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Atlanta vs. Philadelphia

7:05 PM	Atlanta – ROAD					Philadelphia – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.245	0.728	23.40%	0.59		0.255	0.716	19.60%	0.56
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.233	0.696	22.80%	0.46		0.259	0.716	18.90%	0.43
SP STATS	Hudson – RHP					Lee – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.21	4.22	6.43	8.42		0.97	2.59	8.27	14.12
LAST 14 DAYS	1.70	4.63	4.82	5.60		1.07	3.00	10.20	13.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	ATL vs L		ATL BvP			PHI vs R		PHI BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7

• Favored Team – PHI -145

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home When you look at average numbers, they are never more indicative pf performance then they are with Cliff Lee. He seems to have the same start everytime he take the mound no matter who he is facing. He goes 7 or 8 IP giving up 2 or 3 ER and striking out 7-10 batters. He has had a ton of success versus this ATL team and they certainly K their fair share of times. ATL is batting .240 on the road, .237 versus left-handers, and .316 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 8

• Away Tim Hudson went 0-3 in June but he posted a 2.45 ERA in hat span. He is pitching phenomenal baseball right now with 5 quality starts in his last 6 outings so I am inclined to throw out his 5.72 road ERA versus this PHI team that has struggled all season. PHI is batting .250 at home, .261 versus right-handers, and .337 over the last 7 days. If you do not play Lee then you are obligated to play him in a GPP in a multiple pitcher format. RG Start-Ability 5

Batter Grind Down

• Home Ryan Howard is 22-67 with 7 HRs versus Hudson. Chase Utley, Domonic Brown and Delmon Young have been hot for PHI. Michael Young has good numbers versus Hudson as well with a 9-29 line. Both he and Howard are batting over .300 versus right-handers. RG Stack Rating 2

• Away Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann have both produced over 30 fp in the past 7 days. Freeman is batting over .300 versus left-handed pitching so do not worry about the lefty/lefty matchup. Justin Upton has the best numbers versus Lee and seems to be heating up again. RG Stack Rating 1

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San Diego vs. Washington

7:05 PM	San Diego – ROAD					Washington – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.249	0.702	20.80%	0.57		0.235	0.670	21.80%	0.50
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.256	0.725	20.00%	0.45		0.241	0.688	21.90%	0.41
SP STATS	Cashner – RHP					Gonzalez – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.17	3.31	6.06	7.78		1.14	3.09	8.91	11.35
LAST 14 DAYS	0.86	1.93	3.21	8.00		0.95	1.77	9.85	15.37
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SDP vs L		SDP BvP			WSN vs R		WSN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – WAS -147

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Gio Gonzalez is the best play of the night. He has thrown for a quality start in his last 6 outings and had a 1.79 ERA in June with a K/9 over 9. He catches a struggling SDG team that is batting .250 on the road, .254 versus left-handers, and .214 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 10

• Away There are players that you always think are better than they are and there are players that you cannot ever bring yourself to play no matter how good their current run may be. Andrew Cashner is the latter to me. He has had a great first half of the season. His ERA dips to 4.21 on the road and his K/9 totals are too low for me. I think he over do for a real bad start and this WAS offense is clicking right now. WAS is batting .261 at home, .246 versus right-handers, and .264 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

Batter Grind Down

• Home Ian Desmond has been a sustained hot with 56.75 fp over the past 15 days. Jason Werth has been hot over the last 7 with 31.75 fp. Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos are batting over .300 versus right-handers RG Stack Rating 4

• Away Carlos Quentin and Carlso Denorfia have positive BvPs versus Gonzalez if you are playing the fade. Everth Cabrera should be activated from the DL tonight and has a .414 average versus left-handers. RG Stack Rating 1

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Baltimore vs. NY Yankees

7:05 PM	Baltimore – ROAD					NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.272	0.775	17.80%	0.66		0.240	0.682	20.10%	0.53
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.279	0.795	17.60%	0.54		0.240	0.698	20.00%	0.42
SP STATS	Gonzalez – RHP					Nova – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.19	3.77	6.95	10.22		1.60	4.63	9.51	7.75
LAST 14 DAYS	1.07	3.86	9.00	13.00		1.32	3.65	8.18	9.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BAL vs R		BAL BvP			NYY vs R		NYY BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – BAL -110

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Ivan Nova last start was in BAL and he looked pretty good against them going 6 IP with only 2 ER. He is a much better pitcher at home but my money is on BAL figuring him out this time around. They are 2 good an offense to be shut down twice by the same guy in less than a week. BAL is batting .273 on the road, .280 versus right-handers, and .258 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 3

• Away I like Miguel Gonzalez today. He is a better pitcher on the road and has a 2.77 ERA versus this NYY team on the year. Plus he is coming off of a fantastic June where he went 4-1 with a 2.88 ERA and a K/9 in the 8s. NYY is batting .242 at home, .243 versus right-handers, and .255 over the past 7 days RG Start-Ability 6

Batter Grind Down

• Home Robinson Cano at home versus a right-hander is automatic play if you can afford him. He has 46.5 fp pver the past week. RG Stack Rating 3

• Away Chris Davis continues his assault on the AL MVP race. He has 30.25 fp over the past week. He is also 6-16 with 2 HRs versus Nova. Nick Markakis is 10-25 with 1 HR. RG Stack Rating 7

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Detroit vs. Cleveland

7:05 PM	Detroit – ROAD					Cleveland – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.281	0.779	16.50%	0.64		0.258	0.756	21.90%	0.67
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.280	0.771	16.20%	0.51		0.256	0.754	22.60%	0.52
SP STATS	Porcello – RHP					Masterson – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.29	5.21	7.11	7.51		1.18	3.48	9.07	13.39
LAST 14 DAYS	1.93	8.82	5.03	3.03		1.18	3.32	9.76	14.73
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	DET vs R		DET BvP			CLE vs R		CLE BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – CLE -125

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Justin Masterson has been really good at home with a 2.29 ERA and a 9.40 K/9. If you are looking for an against the grain GPP play then he is your man because the Tigers are not the juggernaut on the road that they are at home. DET is batting .260 on the road, .282 versus right-handers, and .253 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 6

• Away Everyone was high on Rick Porcello after his great May where he posted a 3.13 ERA. He responded to that month by going 5.09 in June. He is GPP gold since he is capable of truly great performances and because he has so many bad starts is also cheap. CLE is batting .253 at home, .257 versus right-handers, and .305 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

Batter Grind Down

• Home Asdrubal Cabrera is 13-37 versus Porcello. Carlos Santana is 9-28 with 3 HRs and what he lacks in vocals, he more than makes up for with stellar rhythm sections. Jason Kipnis is still hot with 46 fp over the past week and 89 fp over the last 15 days. RG Stack Rating 6

• Away Miguel Cabrera is 11-31 with 2 HRs versus Masterson, Prince Fielder is 6-14 with 1 HR, Tori Hunter is 7-22 with 3 HRs, and Victor Martinez is 7-17. Everyone from DET is always playable since they are a threat to get 8 runs everytime they take the field RG Stack Rating 5

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