MLB Daily Grind Down May 5th P2
St. Louis at Milwaukee
| St. Louis | Milwaukee | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miller Park | 2:10 PM | ||||||
| Jaime Garcia – (3-1), 2.5 ERA, 7 K/9, 1.31 WHIP | Marco Estrada – (2-1), 4.58 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 1.33 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (46-172 H/AB) 0.267 BA-A, 0.22 K%, 0.715 OPS-A | PvB | (29-88 H/AB) 0.33 BA-A, 0.19 K%, 0.932 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-1), 3.77 ERA, 1 HRA, 6.3 K/9, 1.535 WHIP | HOME | (1-0), 6.75 ERA, 7 HRA, 10.1 K/9, 1.625 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
STL BvP  | STL vs R | MIL BvP | MIL vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored Pick’em
Pitchers
- Home Marco Estrada has not been as crisp as he was the second half of last year but still has great GPP upside because of his K/9 ratio. His 3 worse starts of the year have been at home. He just faced this same Cardinal team going 7 IP with 3 ER and 7 Ks in STL. What worries the most about him is that he has given up a HR in all of his 6 starts. STL is batting .256 on the road, .258 in day games, .263 vs. right-handers, and .267 over the last 7 days. The BvPs favor STL. Avoid
- Away Jaime Garcia is one of my favorite players in daily fantasy. His K/9 is a little low and he is normally only superman at home but he has pitched just as well on the road this year. His upside is limited but he is usually underpriced. He has had success against MIL but draws the tough assignment of facing them on the road where they are much better. MIL is batting .282 at home, .252 in day games, .292 vs left-handers, and .295 over the last 7 days with 14 HRs. The splits strongly favor them and the numbers Vegas has offered do not instill confidence in Garcia. Avoid
Batters
- Home Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Gomez are crushing left-handed pitching on the year. Gomez is the hottest hitter in all of baseball producing 47.75 fp over the last 7 days. By now, he should be on everyone’s radar because he is having that kind of a year. Jonathan Lucroy has the best set of BvPs versus Garcia but Garcia is very hittable on the road so I like a few of the Brewers today even though the numbers are not there.
- Away Matt Holiday is 5-10 vs. Estrada. Yadier Molina is 7-13 with an HR. Jon Jay, Matt Carpenter, and David Freese have positive stats also. Jay has been on a nice little run producing 20.75 fp. There is a decent size OU in this game and Garcia has been solid so you do the math.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
| Chicago White Sox | Kansas City | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauffman Stadium | 2:10 PM | ||||||
| Jose Quintana – (2-0), 3.58 ERA, 7.28 K/9, 1.19 WHIP | Wade Davis – (2-2), 5.55 ERA, 7.47 K/9, 1.97 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (22-70 H/AB) 0.314 BA-A, 0.2 K%, 0.957 OPS-A | PvB | (14-75 H/AB) 0.187 BA-A, 0.19 K%, 0.587 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 1.93 ERA, 2 HRA, 7.7 K/9, 0.911 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 7.45 ERA, 2 HRA, 8.4 K/9, 2.276 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CHW BvP | CHW vs R | KCR BvP | KCR vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8
- Favored KAN -118
Pitchers
- Home Wade Davis is the favorite in this game with a low OU which has me wondering if Vegas knows something I do not because Davis has been terrible in his last two starts. His WHIP is a horrible 1.97, which does not bode well fro him. CHW is batting .245 on the road, .230 vs. right-handers, and .241 over the last 7 days. His K totals are to low for me to gamble on but the line is hard to ignore. In Play
- Away Jose Quintana last outing was not great in TEX but he has looked sharp as whole. He is the dog today on the road so it is hard to recommend a guy with a mediocre K/9 but I am not crazy about Davis and Quintana could pitch well enough to get the win. KAN is batting .278 at home, .303 vs. left-handers, .294 over the last 7 days. The BvPs favor them, also. Avoid
Batters
- Home Mike Moustakas has been hot and he is 4-9 with 2 HRs versus Quintana. Jeff Francoeur is 5-6 off of him. He has 18.5 fp over the last week. The splits favor Billy Butler today and he appears to be coming around.
- Away Paul Konerko has good numbers versus Davis and Dayan Viciedo is currently batting over .500 versus left-handers. The low OU and the fact that CWS is not scoring many runs will probably keep me away from most of them today.
Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs
| Cincinnati | Chicago Cubs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrigley Field | 2:20 PM | ||||||
| Mat Latos – (2-0), 1.83 ERA, 8.52 K/9, 1.09 WHIP | Edwin Jackson – (0-4), 6.27 ERA, 9.27 K/9, 1.61 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (20-97 H/AB) 0.206 BA-A, 0.2 K%, 0.536 OPS-A | PvB | (18-91 H/AB) 0.198 BA-A, 0.26 K%, 0.615 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 1.93 ERA, 1 HRA, 7.2 K/9, 1.232 WHIP | HOME | (0-2), 9.56 ERA, 1 HRA, 11.8 K/9, 2.188 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CIN BvP | CIN vs R | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored CIN -155
Pitchers
- Home Edwin Jackson last start was horrible but the wind was blowing strongly out in Wrigley t that game won me $3500 in DraftStreet’s big score so I will forgive him. He had been crisp up until that point. What I like about Jackson is that he induces mainly ground ball outs. If you look at the low OU then you will see that the conditions favor him today. CIN is batting only .217 on the road, .255 in day games, .226 vs. right-handers, and .237 over the last 7 day so the splits favor Jackson. He has held CIN to a .198 BAA. In Play
- Away Mat Latos is in a zone right now. He is an upper tier pitcher to began with but he has started the season at an elite level. He takes the hill as a huge favorite today in a game with an low OU which makes him an instant target. CHC is batting .274 at home, .238 vs. right handers, .293 in day games, and .267 over the last 7 days with 10 HRs. Mat Latos has held them to a .206 BAA. Target
Batters
- Home Anthony Rizzo has been hot producing 26 fp over the last week. If I am playing the fade then I would look to him.
- Away Shin-Soo Choo is 8-22 vs. Jackson. He is als batting .390 vs. right-handed pitching. Joey Votto is only 2-10 vs. Jackson but those 2 hits were for HRs. Both Choo and Votto have been the most productive Reds over the last 7 days.
Miami at Philadelphia
| Miami | Philadelphia | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens Bank Park | 2:35 PM | ||||||
| Kevin Slowey – (0-2), 2.15 ERA, 7.02 K/9, 1.01 WHIP | Roy Halladay – (2-3), 6.75 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 1.31 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (11-30 H/AB) 0.367 BA-A, 0.1 K%, 1 OPS-A | PvB | (32-138 H/AB) 0.232 BA-A, 0.15 K%, 0.522 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-1), 1.59 ERA, 1 HRA, 6.4 K/9, 1.059 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 5.29 ERA, 3 HRA, 9 K/9, 0.941 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| MIA BvP | MIA vs R | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored PHI -180
Pitchers
- Home Roy Halladay got hammered in his last start and yes, some of that had to do with the wind. My question to you is, when did we start factoring the wind into Roy Halladay ‘s starts? He is clearly not the same pitcher from 2 years ago and not worth his price. He draws a very easy matchup today against a MIA team that he just held to 1 ER. MIA is batting .236 on the road, .228 vs right-handers, .248 in day games, and .229 over the last 7 days. The Ks are there so he has GPP upside but I do not trust him for his price. In Play
- Away If you are looking for a sneaky GPP play today then Kevin Slowey is your man. He has pitched fantastic so far this year and if Halliday implodes again could even get his first win today. He is cheap and a 2.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP are among the best in the MLB. PHI is batting .254 at home, .298 in day games, .250 vs. right-handers, and .212 over the last 7 days with 10 HRs. In Play
Batters
- Home Ryan Howard has been swinging a nice stick producing 21.75 fp over the last 7 days. He and Chase Utley get the splits in their favor today. Howard is 3-5 with 1 HR vs Slowey and is batting .321 versus right-handed pitching.
- Away I am not saying they will……but MIA could get to Halladay today so all of their players look enticing today. Greg Dobbs looks like a great play either way,. He is 9-21 with 1 HR vs. Halladay.
Boston at Texas
| Boston | Texas | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers Ballpark | 3:05 PM | ||||||
| Jon Lester – (4-0), 3.11 ERA, 7.98 K/9, 1.14 WHIP | Yu Darvish – (5-1), 2.33 ERA, 13.66 K/9, 0.93 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (40-118 H/AB) 0.339 BA-A, 0.2 K%, 0.898 OPS-A | PvB | (6-20 H/AB) 0.3 BA-A, 0.4 K%, 1.05 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (3-0), 3.24 ERA, 1 HRA, 8.3 K/9, 1 WHIP | HOME | (3-0), 3.5 ERA, 1 HRA, 12.5 K/9, 1.444 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| BOS BvP | BOS vs R | TEX BvP | TEX vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8
- Favored TEX -150
Pitchers
- Home Yu Darvish has recorded double digit Ks in half of his starts this year. His 2.33 season ARA and 0.93 WHIP are elite as well. I do not care what Barry Larkin thinks. He is the best pitcher in baseball this year. Target
- Away Jon Lester is not in a good spot today. TEX owns a .339 BAA vs. him and he is coming off of his worst outing of the year in which control was a big problem. TEX is batting .280 at home, .277 vs. left-handers, and .292 over the last 7 days so the splits favor them. Avoid
Batters
- Home Jeff Baker is 6-7 vs. Lester. Nelson Cruz is 9-17 vs. him with an HR. Adrian Beltre is 6-19 and Ian Kinsler has 2 HRs in 23 AB. All of these players hit left-handed pitching very well.
- Away If you are playing the fade then Jacoby Elisbury is 2-4 with 2 doubles vs. Darvish and hits right-handers very well.