MLB Daily Grind Down: Thursday, August 22nd

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-08-22 14:51:14

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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Arizona vs. Cincinnati

12:35 PM	Arizona – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.257	0.713	18.50%	0.55		0.250	0.723	20.10%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.256	0.715	19.10%	0.45		0.247	0.714	20.30%	0.46
SP STATS	Cahill – RHP					Latos – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.42	4.78	6.49	7.57		1.24	3.02	8.94	12.60
LAST 14 DAYS	1.60	7.20	7.20	9.00		1.00	0.81	7.33	15.37
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	ARI vs R		ARI BvP			CIN vs R		CIN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8

• Favored Team – CIN -170

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home I remember at the start of June when we were writing about Mat Latos ‘s HR problems. He has completely turned things around and now has only given up 11 HRs in 25 GS. He is rolling since the All-Start Break with a 1.54 ERA and .224 BAA. Vegas has a ton of faith in him today at home and so do I. ARI is batting .262 on the road, .256 versus right-handers, and .271 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 9

• Away Trevor Cahill is a pitcher headed in the opposite direction. After a great April and May, he has fallen into hard times over the summer. He had a horrible June, spent all of July on the DL, and just got hammered in his first start back. He pitched close to a 100 pitches in his last outing if you are looking for a deep GPP sleeper but CIN has been rolling and they will most likely crush the shaky right-hander. CIN is batting .252 at home, .251 versus right-handers, and .263 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 3

Batter Grind Down

• Home Shin-Soo Choo has a .317 Batting average at home. He is also super hot with 27.5 fp over the last 7 days and is 4-6 versus Cahill. Joey Votto is hot also and get the splits in his favor. RG Stack Rating 7

• Away Martin Prado and Paul Goldschmidt have been hot for ARI. Prado is 5-17 with 1 HR versus Latos. Gerrardo Parra is 6-16 versus him as well. Jason Kubel is 2-8 with 2 HRs if he gets the start. RG Stack Rating 3

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LA Dodgers vs. Miami

12:40 PM	LA Dodgers – ROAD					Miami – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.266	0.724	18.40%	0.56		0.231	0.622	19.50%	0.43
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.272	0.732	18.00%	0.44		0.224	0.632	21.80%	0.34
SP STATS	Kershaw – LHP					Alvarez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	0.85	1.80	8.62	14.70		1.16	3.41	4.81	8.33
LAST 14 DAYS	0.77	1.23	8.59	16.00		1.10	4.95	6.30	7.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	LAD vs R		LAD BvP			MIA vs L		MIA BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 6

• Favored Team – LAD -240

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Henderson Alvarez is actually pitching well for MIA, which is a small part of the reason the OU is set at 6. If I am not taking Kershaw then I might use Alvarez on a multiple pitcher site to play the fade but that is an extreme GPP play. LAD is batting .274 on the road, .272 versus right-handers, and .260 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away This is a slam dunk. Clayton Kershaw versus the worst offensive team in baseball. His road ERA takes a dip to a 2.08, which is much better than most of the ace’s home ERAs. the guy is fantastic. Overlay, will be a big concern but I do not see how you cannot use him this morning. RG Start-Ability 10

Batter Grind Down

• Home Giancario Stanton has 1 HR versus Kershaw if you want to play the fade and has been hot over the last 7 days with 28.25 fp. RG Stack Rating 1

• Away Alvarez is allowing left-handers a .297 BAA. Adrian Gonzalez, Skip Schumaker, Carl Crawford, and Andre Either are your best bets. Gonzalez is 5-13 with 1 HR versus Alvarez. RG Stack Rating 4

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Toronto vs. NY Yankees

1:05 PM	Toronto – ROAD					NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.254	0.741	18.20%	0.63		0.240	0.669	19.60%	0.52
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.249	0.695	18.20%	0.43		0.250	0.680	18.90%	0.41
SP STATS	Happ – LHP					Pettitte – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.47	4.93	7.15	7.31		1.44	4.39	6.32	8.69
LAST 14 DAYS	1.30	4.96	7.27	8.03		2.27	5.27	8.18	7.07
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TOR vs L		TOR BvP			NYY vs L		NYY BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – NYY -151

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home In the battle of the lackluster lefties, Andy Pettitte has been given the edge by Vegas. Do not get too excited about him, though. They set the OU at a high nine and he is not a pitcher who records many Ks. Andy shocked me last time out when he held BOS scoreless but he is a much better pitcher on the road than he is at home. I am betting against him and his 5.14 home ERA and .317 home BAA again today. TOR is batting .246 on the road, .246 versus left-handers, and .246 over the last 7 days….weird. RG Start-Ability 3

• Away J.A. Happ has been decent since his return but he draws a very tough NYY team today that has been hot and now hits left-handers better than they do right-handers thanks to some nice mid-season transactions. NYY is batting .252 versus left-handers, .254 at home, and .325 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 3

Batter Grind Down

• Home Robinson Cano has been super hot with 32.25 fp over the last 7 days. Alfonso Soriano has been hot as well with 29.75 fp. Alfonso Soriano has been batting .371 versus left-handers since joining NYY. Alex Rodriguez has a .351 Batting average versus left –handers since joining the team. Mark Reynolds makes an interesting value play with a left-hander on the mound also. RG Stack Rating 8

• Away Pettite is allowing right-handers to bat .326 versus him. Fill in the blanks. RG Stack Rating 7

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Minnesota vs. Detroit

1:05 PM	Minnesota – ROAD					Detroit – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.241	0.695	22.00%	0.54		0.279	0.783	17.50%	0.65
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.239	0.698	21.70%	0.44		0.270	0.774	18.60%	0.52
SP STATS	Albers – LHP					Verlander – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	0.66	1.85	2.61	11.37		1.34	3.51	8.66	11.89
LAST 14 DAYS	0.66	1.85	2.61	11.37		0.91	2.74	8.61	14.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIN vs R		MIN BvP			DET vs L		DET BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – DET -240

• Favored Team – 8

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Justin Verlander has not been as good as we have been used to seeing this year but he remains the same player. He is a workhorse who throws 120 pitches a game and gets a high number of Ks along the way. He draws an attractive matchup today versus a MIN that he has held to a .194 BAA in the past. MIN has recorded only 1 fewer K than HOU since the All-Star Break. There is big game potential here this morning. MIN is batting .230 on the road, .238 versus right-handers, and .268 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 10

• Away Andrew Albers has yet to give up a ER on the road. He also has yet to bring his skill set into DET. He is a low K pitcher and is unplayable today even if you buy into his 1.85 ERA and 0.66 WHIP after 3 starts. His upside is capped and DET is too big of a threat to score multiple runs off of him. DET is batting .297 at home, ..272 versus left-handers, and .281 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 2

Batter Grind Down

• Home Everyone is playable for DET but Miguel Cabrera ‘s .413 batting average versus left-handers and .378 batting average at home are the most playable. RG Stack Rating 6

• Away Justin Morneau is 12-47 with 2 HRs versus Verlander if you feel like getting saucy. He has been productive over the last 7 days as well. RG Stack Rating 1

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Washington vs. Chicago Cubs

2:20 PM	Washington – ROAD					Chicago Cubs – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.241	0.687	20.40%	0.52		0.241	0.704	19.70%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.221	0.641	21.20%	0.37		0.243	0.704	19.00%	0.43
SP STATS	Strasburg – RHP					Wood – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.06	2.93	9.42	11.55		1.10	3.13	6.38	9.72
LAST 14 DAYS	0.88	2.12	10.59	12.33		0.89	3.66	7.03	8.73
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	WSN vs L		WSN BvP			CHC vs R		CHC BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – WAS -169

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Travis Wood has had a bad August with a 5.09 ERA and 0-3 record. Maybe he was just pitching well earlier in the year so that he could get traded because he does not seem to have the same intensity. WAS is not that great on the road but I would only take a gamble on Wood if he were pitching well. WAS is batting .227 on the road, .253 versus right-handers, and .274 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

• Away Does anyone remember Rick Ankiel? Not the 35 year old outfielder who has washed out of the league but the pitching phenom that suddenly lost his control for good out of the blue one day on the mound. (I know it is the same person so stop whatever nonsense you were about to post.) Stephen Strasburg had a similar experience his last time out. While complete meltdowns are rare, I am not sure I will be putting my money behind him. His 5.11 road ERA on the year makes him an easy high dollar name for me to avoid today even against the lackluster Cubs. CHC is batting .249 at home, .244 versus right-handers, and .228 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 6

Batter Grind Down

• Home Donnie Murphy, Nate Schierholtz, Junior Lake, and Anthony Rizzo have been productive for CHC. If Strasburg is shaky again on the road then all of CHC is worth a look for value. RG Stack Rating 4

• Away Jayson Werth has been super hot with 32.75 fp over the last 7 days. Ryan Zimmermann and Bryce Harper have been hot as well. Both Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper are batting over .300 versus right-handed pitching. RG Stack Rating 4

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