MLB Daily Grind Down: Thursday, August 8th

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-08-08 19:58:29

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

That was a shot yesterday by Chase Utley. Turns out that play was the DSBC for me. If Utley scored there then Cole would get the win and that would have been enough pints to have squeaked me out of the bubble. Good luck to all of the Grinders who made it to the bracket. My Money is on my fellow RG Grind Down co-writer Notorious.

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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Colorado vs. NY Mets

12:10 PM	Colorado – ROAD					NY Mets – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.263	0.738	20.00%	0.60		0.237	0.682	22.40%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.268	0.762	20.10%	0.50		0.235	0.679	22.10%	0.42
SP STATS	Chatwood – RHP					Gee – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.40	3.15	6.34	9.55		1.34	3.97	6.73	9.05
LAST 14 DAYS	1.87	8.68	11.87	8.05		0.76	2.14	3.86	8.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	COL vs R		COL BvP			NYM vs R		NYM BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – NYM -125

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home COL has been blanked the last 2 nights and Dillon Gee has the kind of numbers at home that could make it 3 days in row for COL. His 2.34 ERA at home is well above average. I do not see Col coming out of this series scoreless but the way they have ben swinging the bats, anything is possible. COL is batting .246 on the road, .266 versus right-handers, and .210 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

• Away Tyler Chatwood is headed for the DL. Jeff Manship is your new starter. He just got called up from AAA so he will not be in any GPPs. RG Start-Ability NA

Batter Grind Down

• Home Manship got pummeled in his tenure MIN. Consider everyone playable RG Stack Rating 10

• Away Gee’s weak spot is his inability to get out left-handed bats. Without CGO in the LU that is not a problem. Dickerson and Blackmon may be worth a look but I’ll take a pass until COL returns home. RG Stack Rating 2

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Miami vs. Pittsburgh

12:35 PM	Miami – ROAD					Pittsburgh – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.231	0.624	19.50%	0.43		0.244	0.702	22.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.233	0.618	18.70%	0.31		0.242	0.695	22.00%	0.41
SP STATS	Fernandez – RHP					Cole – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.01	2.54	9.76	12.44		1.12	3.69	6.34	9.90
LAST 14 DAYS	0.70	1.57	13.70	22.00		0.73	3.26	8.48	11.37
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIA vs R		MIA BvP			PIT vs R		PIT BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 6.5

• Favored Team – PIT -144

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Gerrit Cole is actually worst at home than he is on the road but he catches the league’s lowest scoring offense. MIA seems better lately but they still rank 29th in runs scored for July and are batting just .225 for the month. The knock on Cole early on was that he did not get enough Ks but the Ks have been there for him in his last 2 starts. He just had 8 against this same MIA team in MIA. MIA is batting .231 on the road, .246 over the last 7 days, and .233 versus right-handers. RG Start-Ability 9

• Away If you do not know that Jose Fernandez is a beast by now then you have not been watching enough baseball. His numbers are all sick but the best among them are his 9.73 K/9 and .190 BAA. He plays for MIA so the win is not guaranteed for him….ever, and he is mortal on the road with a 3.97 ERA. Still, he should benefit from this park and he has huge GPP upside. PIT is batting .248 at home, .242 versus right-handers, and .265 over the last 7 days RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home Andrew McCuthen is super hot with 36 fp over the last 7 days. He also kills the ball at home. Pedro Alvarez has a knack for hitting daytime HRs. RG Stack Rating 2

• Away Cole has allowed left-handers a .276 BAA. Logan Morrison is hot with 24.5 fp over the last 7 days Giancario Stanton hit an HR off of him the last time they faced but that was when he was super hot. RG Stack Rating 2

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Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia

1:05 PM	Chicago Cubs – ROAD					Philadelphia – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.242	0.705	19.70%	0.54		0.251	0.698	19.90%	0.53
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.245	0.708	18.80%	0.44		0.255	0.698	19.60%	0.40
SP STATS	Samardzija – RHP					Martin – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.31	3.78	9.30	11.57		2.68	12.46	13.17	4.10
LAST 14 DAYS	1.54	2.89	10.38	11.07		2.68	12.46	13.17	4.10
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHC vs R		CHC BvP			PHI vs R		PHI BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – CHC -110

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home I am not sure what to make of Ethan Martin ‘s first start. Sure, he got shelled but it was against a red hot ATL team. He had 6 Ks in 4.1 IP but ATL has also recorded the second most Ks on the year. He draws a much easier matchup today in CHC and he did throw 93 pitches in his last start so the upside is there if he can pitch well. CHC is batting .231 on the road, .246 versus right-handers, and .251 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

• Away Jeff Samardzija is actually a beast on the road. He has a 2.72 ERA, .199 BAA, and 9.01 K/9 outside of Wrigley. The Allstar Break seems to be just what he needed to get back on track. He has a 2.42 ERA since the break. He catches a Philles team that has struggled lately. PHI is batting .257 on the road, .257 versus right-handers, and .214 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 9

Batter Grind Down

• Home Ruf, Ultey, and Young are your best bets if you are playing the fade. The PHI have looked terrible as of late so use with caution. RG Stack Rating 1

• Away It is not often that you will hear me say to stack the Cubs but today is that day. The left-handed bats are playable either way. Martin could not get a lefty out in his last start. RG Stack Rating 7

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Milwaukee vs. San Francisco

3:45 PM	Milwaukee – ROAD					San Francisco – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.253	0.711	19.60%	0.56		0.261	0.695	16.90%	0.51
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.251	0.709	18.80%	0.43		0.265	0.709	16.70%	0.41
SP STATS	Hand – RHP					Lincecum – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.24	3.60	4.50	3.06		1.33	4.43	9.54	10.45
LAST 14 DAYS	1.29	4.24	3.18	5.00		1.34	5.60	8.90	7.73
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIL vs R		MIL BvP			SFG vs R		SFG BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7

• Favored Team – SFO -158

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home MIL got to two better starters the last couple of games. They did not kill them but because SFO is struggling to score runs, they prevented them from getting the win. Tim Lincecum gets that same great matchup that we loved the last 2 days and he faces a very opponent on the mound. He has looked good in his last 2 outings and Vegas believes in him. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me 3 times….well then I guess I am just a glutton for punishment. MIL is batting .249 on the road, .250 versus right-handers, and .219 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 9

• Away Donovan Hand threw 90 pitches in his last start so I do not think he will be capped today. However, he is just a 4.30 pitcher on the road and does not get enough Ks per start to matter. SFO seems due to me and I think Hand ends up being on the wrong side of that equation. SFO is batting .259 at home, .262 versus right-handers, and .243 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

Batter Grind Down

• Home Hand is allowing left-handers to bat .303 versus him. Kieschnick is batting .381 versus right-handers. Brandon Crawford is batting .306 versus them also. Brandon Belt has been hot with 24.75 fp. RG Stack Rating 4

• Away I have Tim Listed as a 9 because all the numbers are there for him but you know how it works with him. He could blow up at any minute so If you do not take Tim then you should take some (or all) MIL players. Rickie Weeks is 5-19 with 2 HRs versus him. RG Stack Rating 6

NIGHT GAMES COMING SOON!________________________________________________________________________________________

Detroit vs. Cleveland

7:05 PM	Detroit – ROAD					Cleveland – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.279	0.782	17.40%	0.66		0.259	0.745	21.20%	0.65
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.283	0.780	16.60%	0.52		0.254	0.736	21.90%	0.49
SP STATS	Scherzer – RHP					McAllister – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	0.91	2.85	10.13	15.32		1.34	3.47	6.40	9.00
LAST 14 DAYS	0.52	0.83	7.64	16.40		1.23	3.63	7.37	8.03
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	DET vs R		DET BvP			CLE vs R		CLE BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – DET -152

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home We reccomended a CLE pitcher yesterday. It do not exactly work out for us. Zach McAllister has just as good of a home ERA today but this DET team is rolling. They have scored the most runs for the month of July and are just a few runs away from taking away the title of the league’s highest scoring offense from BOS. DET is batting .261 on the road, .282 versus right-handers, and .266 on the road. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away How can you possibly not use Max Scherzer right now. He is 16-1. He has a 170 Ks and an ERA of 2.85 overall and 2.21 on the road. CLE is batting .255 at home, 251 versus right-handers, and .246 over the last 7 days RG Start-Ability 9

Batter Grind Down

• Home If you are going to play and Indian make sure it is not a right-handed one because they have just a .166 BAA versus Max. Michael Brantley has good numbers versus Max if you are playing the fade RG Stack Rating 1

• Away DET as a team has a .306 BAA versus McAllister. Prince Fielder has been heating up and gets the lefty/righty advantage in his favor. RG Stack Rating 5

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Boston vs. Kansas City

8:10 PM	Boston – ROAD					Kansas City – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.273	0.784	20.50%	0.69		0.256	0.685	16.90%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.251	0.722	21.80%	0.45		0.262	0.691	16.60%	0.39
SP STATS	Lester – LHP					Chen – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.37	4.52	7.86	10.27		1.10	2.03	7.08	4.57
LAST 14 DAYS	1.40	4.08	11.51	13.07		0.67	2.00	8.50	11.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BOS vs L		BOS BvP			KCR vs L		KCR BvP

h3. What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – BOS -120

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Bruce Chen gets to go against the other high powered offense tonight. He is having a great season but he is pitching above himself right now. The shoe should drop on him sooner rather than later. Even if his numbers were real, I would not recommend him today. BOS is batting .263 on the road, .251 versus left-handers, and .283 over the last 7 days RG Start-Ability 3

• Away Jon Lester has been pretty bad on the road with a 5.23 ERA. Much of that number comes from his last start in ARI where he got completely shelled. KAN has been more productive lately offensively and they do not K all that much. You have to play someone tonight so Lester has the kind of upside that puts him in play. KAN is batting .254 at home, .258 versus left-handers, and.286 over the last 7 days RG Start-Ability 6

Batter Grind Down

• Home Billy Butler has good numbers against Lester. Both Hosmer and Gordon have been hot for KAN and hit lefties well. RG Stack Rating 5

• Away Jonny Gomes, Dustin Pedrioa, David Ortiz, and Jacoby Ellsbury all have positive BvPs versus Chen. Chen is allowing left-handers to bat .270 versus him so I would not worry about the lefty/lefty matchups today. Ellsbury, Shane Victorino, Gomes, Ortiz and Stephen Drew have been hot for BOS*RG Stack Rating*

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LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis

8:15 PM	LA Dodgers – ROAD					St. Louis – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.264	0.720	18.60%	0.56		0.274	0.747	17.80%	0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.264	0.717	18.50%	0.42		0.245	0.695	18.30%	0.43
SP STATS	Ryu – LHP					Westbrook – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.28	3.15	7.45	11.34		1.42	3.48	3.58	7.94
LAST 14 DAYS	1.45	3.57	9.42	13.40		1.47	6.35	4.76	6.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	LAD vs R		LAD BvP			STL vs L		STL BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – STL -109

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Carlos Martinez is a long reliever making a spot start. He is not even a good long-reliever making a spot start. He has a 11.57 ERA at home. He is a high K player and Vegas has him listed as the favorite but using him would be a huge gamble. LAD is batting .275 on the road, .267 versus right-handers and .269 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 1

• Away Hyun-Jin Ryu has been very hittable on the road with a 4.52 ERA and .280 BAA. Of course, he has GPP winning upside but it says much to me that Vegas has him listed as the dog against a long reliever. STL is a very good home team. They are batting .280 at home, .242 versus left-handers, and .311 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

Batter Grind Down

• Home David Freese has been hot with 31.5 fp over the last 7 days. He hit left-handers very well a year ago. The other right-handed bats of Carlos Beltran, Allen Craig and Matt Holliday have all been hot as well. Matt Carpenter could be a sneaky GPP play. He is batting .292 versus left-handers and Ryu is a reverse split pitcher who is allowing left-handers a .276 BAA. RG Stack Rating 5

• Away Martinez is allowing left-handers to bat .381 versus him. Andre Either and Carl Crawford have been hot for LAD. Adrian Gonzalez is also a solid play. Nick Punto could be a sneaky GPP play. He is 5-10 with 2 XBH over the last 7 days. RG Stack Rating 9

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