MLB Daily Grind Down: Thursday, July 11th

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-07-11 16:03:24

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

With 12 games on the schedule for today, you would think it would be a better day for daily fantasy. With 5 games on the morning side and 7 at night, we are left with 2 sets of short GPPs. At least, we will have a double dip day of action but overlay will be a bid factor in today’s outcome. Here is today’s Daily Grind Down to help get you ready for your games.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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Toronto vs. Cleveland

12:05 PM	Toronto – ROAD					Cleveland – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.249	0.727	19.00%	0.61		0.257	0.751	21.90%	0.66
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.250	0.744	19.40%	0.51		0.255	0.747	22.40%	0.51
SP STATS	Dickey – RHP					Salazar – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.29	4.77	6.26	9.17
LAST 14 DAYS	0.83	3.13	5.09	12.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TOR vs R		TOR BvP			CLE vs R		CLE BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – TOR -130

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Danny Salazar is taking over for Carlos Carrasco in CLE rotation. He could not do any worse than Carrasco. His AAA numbers a pretty solid on the year. He has a 3.40 ERA and has 49 Ks in 42 IP of work. He will be cheap and any pitcher that gets that many Ks has GPP upside. TOR is batting .240 on the road, .250 versus right-handers, and .249 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away R.A. Dickey has been super frustrating to me on the year because when all the sighs point to staying away from him, he will pitch fantastic and when it looks like a good spot to use him, he gets shelled. He has looked like his old self on the road with a 3.64 ERA and has had pretty good success versus the CLE team. Plus, he draws a rookie today so it would seem that he should get the win so he will give up 6 ER in 4.1 IP. CLE is batting .250 at home, .254 versus right-handers, and .234 over the past 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home Michael Bourne is 10-31 versus Dickey. Michael Brantley has been very hot with 34.25 fp and drew Stubbs maintains his solid play with 21.75 fp over the last 7 days Brantley, Kipnis, and Bourn all have good numbers versus right-handers. RG Stack Rating 4

• Away TOR got hot all at once and now they have become cold all at once. A rookie pitcher could be just what they need to get things going. Colby Rasmus and Jose Reyes have ben the only 2 Jays producing. Adam Lind is batting .303 versus right-handers RG Stack Rating 6

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Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay

12:10 PM	Minnesota – ROAD					Tampa Bay – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.248	0.707	20.30%	0.56		0.261	0.751	18.30%	0.64
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.262	0.715	20.70%	0.43		0.248	0.730	18.20%	0.49
SP STATS	Pelfrey – RHP					Moore – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.59	5.63	4.72	5.61		1.33	3.42	8.82	11.56
LAST 14 DAYS	1.00	0.00	3.00	12.00		1.15	0.47	12.25	18.70
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIN vs L		MIN BvP			TBR vs R		TBR BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8

• Favored Team – TAM -200

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home After a rough June, Matt Moore is back on track in July. He has yet to give up an ER this month. I think June was a wake-up call for us to temper our expectations of him but he is still a fantastic pitcher and has a great matchup today. MIN is batting .228 on the road, .260 versus left-handers, and .229 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 8

• Away Mike Pelfrey is reliable….Reliably bad so you know to jump all over the opposing teams batters. No matter what number you look at you find evidence that says to avoid. He did just hold TOR scoreless but the have been slumping and TAM is a tougher draw anyway. TAM is batting .266 at home, .248 versus right-handers, and .258 over the last 7 days. RG Start Ability 4

Batter Grind Down

• Home Pelfrey is allowing right-handers to hit .336 on the year so I think you can double dip the splits and take anyone you like. Desmond Jennings has been hot over the past 7 days with 29 fp. RG Stack Rating 8

• Away Trevor Plouffe, Loe Mauer, Brian Dozier, and Ryan Doumit all have plus .300 batting averages versus left-handers. Aaron Hicks has been the hottest Twin with 26 fp over the past 7 days. RG Stack Rating 2

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Kansas City vs. NY Yankees

1:05 PM	Kansas City – ROAD					NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.258	0.690	17.10%	0.55		0.242	0.686	19.80%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.269	0.703	17.10%	0.41		0.245	0.703	19.40%	0.43
SP STATS	Santana – RHP					Pettitte – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.05	2.90	7.17	11.41		1.37	4.37	6.83	9.41
LAST 14 DAYS	1.42	4.26	8.05	9.00		1.57	5.09	6.28	7.73
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	KCR vs L		KCR BvP			NYY vs R		NYY BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – NYY -135

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Andy Pettitte home ERA is scary so is the .315 batting average he has allowed right-handers to hit against him. Plus, his monthly ERA has gotten progressively worse as the season has transpired. KAN is batting .264 on the road, .268 versus left-handers, and .232 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

• Away Ervin Santana is having a great season. I remember when he was first coming up and everyone was high on his potential. It looks like he has finally figured things out. He has been slightly better on the road this year and catches a struggling NYY team. His last start versus NYY they got to him for 4 ER but that was all the way back in the beginning of May when they were a much better team. They are batting .243 at home, .245 versus right-handers, and .248 over the past 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home Robinson Cano is 13-40 with 6 HRs versus Santana. Ichiro Suzuki is 29-89 with 2 HRs. Lyle Overbay has been hot with 22.25 fp over the past week. All 3 of those players are left-handed. Cano is batting .326 versus right-handers and RG Stack Rating 3

• Away Billy Butler is 5-16 with 2 HRs versus Pettitte. I like all of the right-handed bats. Both Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon are hot and NYY’s park favors left-handed power. RG Stack Rating 5

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Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit

1:05 PM	Chicago White Sox – ROAD					Detroit – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.245	0.676	20.70%	0.51		0.281	0.783	17.10%	0.65
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.249	0.686	20.80%	0.41		0.274	0.776	18.70%	0.53
SP STATS	Sale – LHP					Sanchez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	0.96	2.78	9.79	13.82		1.14	2.70	10.96	13.80
LAST 14 DAYS	0.91	3.13	12.52	15.67		0.80	1.80	7.20	12.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHW vs R		CHW BvP			DET vs L		DET BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – DET -165

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Anibal Sanchez threw only 73 pitches in his first start back. I think that let him pitch a few more today but I would be surprised if he tops over 100 pitches and I do not think he will clip over 90 pitches. He is not a very efficient pitcher so he will probably be gone after 5 IP. There is not much upside in the play even though he is favored to win. CHW is batting .256 on the road, .253 versus right-handers, and .273 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 3

• Away Chris Sale number do not dip that much on the road. He has been an elite caliber pitcher on the year and is piling up the Ks. Going into DET is one of the toughest matchups in baseball for a hurler but he has the kind of upside that makes him playable everyday. The fact that so many people will most likely be shying off of him today makes him an interesting choice for me. DET is batting .302 at home, .269 versus left-handers, and .296 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home DET comes into this matchup with all of their hitters hot. Miguel Cabrera gets the traditional splits in his favor and seems to crush every pitcher no matter how good they may be. This is one of those games in which there is no clear answer but I think I will stay off of DET high priced sticks. RG Stack Rating 4

• Away Sanchez is still a solid pitcher so I do not expect much from this CHW team today but they have been hitting the ball and they should get a crack at DET relievers if you want to sprinkle a few of them into your LUs. Alex Rios has been hot and Adam Dunn has decent BvPs. Josh Phegley makes an interesting play at C. he has 2 HRs over the past week. RG Stack Rating 3

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Boston vs. Seattle

3:40 PM	Boston – ROAD					Seattle – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.279	0.800	20.80%	0.71		0.239	0.696	21.90%	0.52
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.291	0.837	20.10%	0.60		0.240	0.699	21.70%	0.43
SP STATS	Dempster – RHP					Ramirez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.38	4.04	8.41	9.94
LAST 14 DAYS	1.57	3.06	5.23	8.40
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BOS vs R		BOS BvP			SEA vs R		SEA BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – BOS -132

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Erasmo Ramirez ‘s numbers are very similar to Danny Salazar ’s. He will be cheap also and has GPP upside but is facing the league’s number 1 offense so there is a greater chance that he gets hammered. He will have Safeco field at his back but BOS does not just hit HRs. BOS is batting .267 on the road, .291 versus right-handers, and .315 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

• Away Ryan Dempster should benefit greatly from this park and SEA roster. He has had a nice little run of games and actually pitches better on the road than he does at home. SEA is batting .251 at home, .243 versus right-handers, and .280 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 8

Batter Grind Down

• Home Brad Miller is batting fantastic since being called-up in late June. Kyle Seager continues his great season with 27.5 fp over the last 7 days and he is batting .311 versus right-handed pitching. RG Stack Rating 2

• Away Almost everyone from BOS has been hot over the last 7 days and almost everyone has a plus .300 batting average versus right-handers. Pick your poison. RG Stack Rating 7

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