MLB Daily Grind Down: Tuesday, July 2nd Part Two
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Arizona vs. NY Mets
| 7:10 PM | Arizona – ROAD | NY Mets – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.259 | 0.714 | 18.50% | 0.55 | 0.230 | 0.667 | 22.60% | 0.52 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.263 | 0.729 | 19.20% | 0.46 | 0.233 | 0.672 | 22.60% | 0.40 | |
| SP STATS | Corbin – LHP | Hefner – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.01 | 2.22 | 7.01 | 12.70 | 1.29 | 3.72 | 6.72 | 7.75 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 0.74 | 1.96 | 7.04 | 12.00 | 1.41 | 2.12 | 7.41 | 10.33 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
ARI vs R  | ARI BvP | NYM vs L | NYM BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 7.0
- Favored Team – ARI -130
Pitcher Grind Down
NYM – Jeremy Hefner has been pretty solid in his last 5 starts. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of those starts and he lasted at least 5 innings in all of them. The matchup against the D-Backs is tough though, especially with Aaron Hill back in that lineup. The D-Backs hit righties well and I could see that happening again tonight. Avoid
ARI – If Patrick Corbin can find the same success that his teammate Wade Miley did last night, then he will make a great option tonight. The Mets have been so bad offensively at home. On the season, they have a .216 batting average with a .643 OPS. These numbers bode well for Corbin who doesn’t seem to have bad starts. Target
Batter Grind Down
NYM – Eric Young has good numbers against Corbin, but the sample size is small. He has been good since coming over from the Rockies, but I would only play him if he is around minimum salary. One guy to keep your eye on is Josh Satin, he is batting almost .400 on the season and has been moved up to 5th in the order.
ARI – Tonight is the night to target the left hand bats of the D-Backs. Hefner is allowing lefties to bat for a .312 average and an OPS of .899. That means target Gerardo Parra and Miguel Montero.
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San Diego vs. Boston
| 7:10 PM | San Diego – ROAD | Boston – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.249 | 0.702 | 20.80% | 0.57 | 0.276 | 0.795 | 21.00% | 0.71 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.246 | 0.691 | 21.20% | 0.41 | 0.247 | 0.712 | 23.20% | 0.44 | |
| SP STATS | Erlin – LHP | Lackey – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.07 | 3.60 | 7.20 | 6.25 | 1.20 | 2.99 | 8.41 | 11.16 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 0.82 | 2.84 | 10.33 | 11.10 | 1.14 | 2.57 | 10.93 | 15.50 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| SDP vs R | SDP BvP | BOS vs L | BOS BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 9.5
- Favored Team – BOS -193
Pitcher Grind Down
BOS – Add John Lackey to the list of big favorites tonight as he takes on the Padres at home. Lackey has had a great bounce back season and his numbers at home have been really impressive. He owns a 1.36 ERA and a 0.970 WHIP at Fenway this season and is facing a Padres offense that has gone quiet on this road trip. Target
SD – Robbie Erlin has looked good in his first two career starts, but I think his bubble burst a bit tonight against the Red Sox. Tough place to pitch against a tough lineup. Avoid
Batter Grind Down
BOS – When lefties face the Red Sox, there is one name that always comes to mind and that is Dustin Pedroia. He is batting .345 on the season against lefties and is batting .370 at home. You get the best of both world’s tonight.
SD – If you are a fan of BvP, then you may want to think about taking Carlos Quentin against Lackey tonight. He has had his number going 8/13 with 4 HR’s, a double, and a triple.
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Seattle vs. Texas
| 8:05 PM | Seattle – ROAD | Texas – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.236 | 0.683 | 21.90% | 0.51 | 0.260 | 0.739 | 17.60% | 0.60 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.239 | 0.686 | 21.80% | 0.42 | 0.251 | 0.712 | 18.20% | 0.43 | |
| SP STATS | Saunders – LHP | Grimm – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.45 | 4.98 | 4.69 | 6.94 | 1.53 | 5.56 | 7.23 | 8.51 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.63 | 6.52 | 3.91 | 3.10 | 1.20 | 5.40 | 6.30 | 9.50 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| SEA vs R | SEA BvP | TEX vs L | TEX BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 9.5
- Favored Team – TEX -155
Pitcher Grind Down
TEX – If you are playing on sites that only have one pitcher slot, I would avoid Justin Grimm tonight. Not a ton of upside and you can’t really bank on him getting the win. But I think he is in play on multiple pitcher sites because he is so cheap. In Play
SEA – Nothing against Joe Saunders, but I’m just not a big fan of him unless he is pitching against a bad opponent at home. Tonight he gets a good opponent in the Rangers and it is on the road in a hitter’s park. Avoid
Batter Grind Down
TEX – Another great stack or mini-stack option for tonight. Saunders doesn’t get a lot of strike outs and he has an ERA over 6 on the road this season. All bats are in play, but I really like the spot for Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler.
SEA – Just because I said Grimm is in play doesn’t mean that I think the M’s bats aren’t. Grimm is a risky option and I think the M’s are in a good spot in this hitter’s park. The two I like are Kendrys Morales and Kyle Seager.
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Tampa Bay vs. Houston
| 8:10 PM | Tampa Bay – ROAD | Houston – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.257 | 0.746 | 18.30% | 0.63 | 0.238 | 0.679 | 25.10% | 0.53 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.799 | 18.30% | 0.54 | 0.268 | 0.760 | 25.40% | 0.49 | |
| SP STATS | Price – LHP | Bedard – LHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.44 | 5.24 | 8.02 | 8.44 | 1.44 | 4.44 | 7.92 | 7.25 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.07 | 2.70 | 9.62 | 13.55 | |||||
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| TBR vs L | TBR BvP | HOU vs L | HOU BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 8.0
- Favored Team – TB -190
Pitcher Grind Down
HOU – Erik Bedard has had quality starts in four of his last five outings, but the Rays are the best hitting team in the league against lefties. Just ask Dallas Keuchel who got lit up by them last night. Bedard is a huge underdog. Avoid
TB – David Price is making his first start back from the DL. I usually don’t like to take pitchers in their first start back because they are usually on a pitch count and it can sometimes take a couple of games to get back to form. However, the matchup with the Astros is really juicy so if Price is in that middle range, I think he is in play. In Play
Batter Grind Down
HOU – The Astros are a pretty decent team against lefties, especially when they are at home. I’m not personally going to be playing any Astros tonight, but they are a contrarian play that could pay off.
TB – The Rays crush left handed pitching and there are value plays galore tonight. Sean Rodriguez, Wil Myers, Ryan Roberts, and Yunel Escobar are all really cheap options that are in a good spot to produce.
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NY Yankees vs. Minnesota
| 8:10 PM | NY Yankees – ROAD | Minnesota – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.240 | 0.682 | 20.10% | 0.53 | 0.248 | 0.709 | 20.40% | 0.56 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.240 | 0.698 | 20.00% | 0.42 | 0.244 | 0.708 | 20.20% | 0.45 | |
| SP STATS | Hughes – RHP | Deduno – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.36 | 4.82 | 7.82 | 8.27 | 1.28 | 3.32 | 5.01 | 9.59 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.14 | 4.50 | 5.14 | 7.50 | 1.08 | 3.46 | 6.23 | 10.50 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| NYY vs R | NYY BvP | MIN vs R | MIN BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 8.0
- Favored Team – MIN -111
Pitcher Grind Down
MIN – Samuel Deduno has been one of the more surprising pitchers lately, at least for me he has. He does not have a high K-rate, but he has been amazing at home this season. Check out these numbers for Deduno at home: 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA and a WHIP of only 0.950. He could provide some sneaky value tonight against the Yankees. In Play
NYY – I know that Yankee Stadium is a hitter’s park, but I can’t seem to make sense of Phil Hughes numbers. Most pitchers are better at home unless their home is either Rangers Ballpark or Coors Field. But Hughes has been such a different pitcher at home than he has been on the road. His ERA on the road is a full two runs lower than it is at home. That said, I don’t really trust him in Minnesota either. Avoid
Batter Grind Down
MIN – Ryan Doumit, Chris Parmelee, and Justin Morneau all have good numbers off of Hughes. I also like Joe Mauer in this one if he is back in the lineup.
NYY – This will be a big test for Deduno and we will see if those great numbers can hold up against all of these left hand bats of the Yankees. Cano is on fire right now and makes a solid option at 2B and Brett Gardner is a great cheap guy.
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