MLB Daily Grind Down: Wednesday, September 4th Part 3

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-04 18:22:42

St. Louis vs. Cincinnati

7:10 PM	St. Louis – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.272	0.743	17.90%	0.61		0.249	0.718	20.10%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.284	0.766	17.50%	0.49		0.251	0.723	20.10%	0.47
SP STATS	Miller – RHP					Arroyo – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.19	3.13	9.63	11.38		1.14	3.66	5.65	9.70
LAST 14 DAYS	1.42	4.32	9.44	9.73		1.49	6.61	7.27	8.37
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	STL vs R		STL BvP			CIN vs R		CIN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Shelby Miller – Miller is not the same pitcher on the road as he is at home. He has a 4.43 ERA on the road compared to a 1.98 ERA at home. For this reason, I am avoiding him tonight, especially considering that it’s in a hitter friendly park. Starter Rating = 4

• Bronson Arroyo – Arroyo has pitched very well at home this season, but the Cardinals are not going to get shut out two days in a row. Their offense is just too good. Arroyo has an ERA close to 6 in 4 starts against them this season and you can expect that same kind of performance today. Starter Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

STL – The Cardinals seem to have Arroyo’s number. Beltran, Jay, and Holliday all have an OPS over 1.000 against him in over 30 at bats. Also, don’t count out Allen Craig.

CIN – Target the left hand bats of the Reds. Joey Votto and Shin-Soo Choo being the two favorites. I think this one is going to be a high scoring game.

Pittsburgh vs. Milwaukee

8:10 PM	Pittsburgh – ROAD					Milwaukee – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.245	0.705	22.40%	0.55		0.254	0.714	19.70%	0.57
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.241	0.696	22.10%	0.41		0.261	0.718	22.00%	0.42
SP STATS	Liriano – LHP					Peralta – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.19	2.57	9.14	13.81		1.43	4.51	5.99	7.76
LAST 14 DAYS	1.11	1.89	10.42	15.00		1.27	3.27	6.55	7.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	PIT vs R		PIT BvP			MIL vs L		MIL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Francisco Liriano – Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He has a 2.57 ERA and a K rate over 9 per 9 innings. The matchup against the Brewers is a good one even though a few Brewers are good against lefties. I think he picks up the win too. Starter Rating = 7

• Wily Peralta – Peralta started the season off bad, then started pitching well, and now seems to be tailing off again. He has given up 11 earned runs in his last 3 starts and is not a recommended option against the Pirates. Starter Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

PIT – Andrew McCutchen saved my behind yesterday. If it wasn’t for him, I would have had an awful night. I think I’m going to keep riding the hot hand with Cutch today against Peralta. Also, look for Morneau to have a good game with his lefty/righty matchup.

MIL – Liriano is a K machine, unless you like your hitters to get K’s, just avoid the Brewers.

Seattle vs. Kansas City

8:10 PM	Seattle – ROAD					Kansas City – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.243	0.706	21.70%	0.54		0.258	0.688	16.60%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.248	0.728	21.50%	0.47		0.257	0.687	16.70%	0.40
SP STATS	Walker – RHP					Santana – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	0.60	0.00	3.60	11.00		1.14	3.19	7.14	10.79
LAST 14 DAYS	0.60	0.00	3.60	11.00		1.20	3.20	8.44	10.07
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SEA vs R		SEA BvP			KCR vs R		KCR BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Taijuan Walker – Big expectations for this young kid, so big that they are going to be limiting his innings the rest of the season. That definitely hurts his fantasy value, but if you can get him for really cheap, he is worth a shot in a GPP. Starter Rating = 5

• Ervin Santana – The Mariners are a very good offense against right hand pitching. This has me scared a bit. I think Santana will do enough to get his team a win, but I don’t think that he will do enough to cover his value. Starter Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

SEA – All of the lefties in that Mariners lineup are good against right hand pitching. I don’t love any of them in particular, but I do think they do some damage against Santana.

KC – The Royals continue to win games. If you don’t trust the rookie Walker, it could be a good spot for guys like Eric Hosmer or Alex Gordon.

LA Dodgers vs. Colorado

8:40 PM	LA Dodgers – ROAD					Colorado – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.266	0.723	18.40%	0.56		0.264	0.735	19.80%	0.60
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.256	0.710	19.20%	0.43		0.260	0.706	19.40%	0.41
SP STATS	Ryu – LHP					De La Rosa – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.22	3.02	7.49	11.62		1.37	3.33	6.05	9.54
LAST 14 DAYS	1.21	3.86	8.90	10.73		1.40	4.15	4.74	10.03
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	LAD vs L		LAD BvP			COL vs L		COL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Edison Volquez – Volquez has been pretty bad this season with an ERA close to 6 on the season. He has been especially bad against the Rockies. Now he has to face them in Coors, start your Rockies stack. Starter Rating = 1

• Jorge De La Rosa – This guy has had a great season and is seemingly never talked about. He has a 3.33 ERA which includes half of his starts being in Coors. While this is great, I’m still not taking him tonight against the Dodgers in Coors. Starter Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

LAD – The Dodgers have a few left handed bats that you might want to avoid today. Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, and Adrian Gonzalez although Gonzalez has always been good against lefties. You want to target Hanley Ramirez today.

COL – I really think the Rockies are going to put up 7+ runs today. They have crushed Volquez this year and should do so again tonight. All are in play.

Tampa Bay vs. LA Angels

10:05 PM	Tampa Bay – ROAD					LA Angels – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.262	0.748	18.70%	0.62		0.263	0.743	18.90%	0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.739	18.70%	0.49		0.270	0.753	18.80%	0.48
SP STATS	Hellickson – RHP					Weaver – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.36	5.21	6.81	8.16		1.13	3.30	7.17	10.96
LAST 14 DAYS	2.71	11.57	5.14	1.00		0.95	2.25	7.20	13.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TBR vs R		TBR BvP			LAA vs R		LAA BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeremy Hellickson – Hellickson hasn’t had one start in his last 5 in which he has allowed less than 3 earned runs. He also hasn’t had a start with over 3 K’s. Not the time to take him. Starter Rating = 2

• Jered Weaver – Weaver pitches well at home and should get some run support with the way Hellickson has been pitching. Look for Weaver to pitch 6-7 strong innings and pick up a tough earned win. Starter Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

TB – I expect Weaver to pitch well tonight so I am going to avoid the Rays bats.

LAA – Kole Cahoun, J.B. Schuck, and Mike Trout will all be in my various lineups tonight. Really like the matchup against the righty Hellickson.