MLB DFS: Cash Game Strategy
I’ve jumped back and forth between playing mostly cash games to playing only single entry GPPs to trying the multiple lineup approach, and cash games seem to fit with what works for me. Baseball is a high variance sport, and what works for me won’t necessarily work for some of you.
What I’m going to do in this article is explain how I approach cash games by breaking each aspect of my thought process down into the areas I tend to focus on for each slate. Also, now that we’re over a month into the season, I’ll have plenty of examples to share with you where I deviated from some of the core principles I try to follow. As you can probably guess, things don’t go particularly well when I do that.
Here are my top MLB DFS cash game tips for playing on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings.
Pitching is King
Everything revolves around pitching. You have to select which pitchers you want to roster, and you have to select which pitchers you think are most likely to give up hits and runs. I start every slate’s analysis by first looking at who is going to be pitching that night. As someone who has spent a lot of time pouring over stats and splits, I get a pretty good idea of which type of hitters are going to work best against a particular pitcher.
In terms of selecting which pitcher or pitchers to use, some nights it’s very obvious. Is Clayton Kershaw pitching at home against the Padres? If yes, you should probably roster him and not risk missing out on a dominant pitching performance. There will often be a pitcher who is head and shoulders above the pack in terms of safety and upside, and while those pitchers will almost always be high owned, fading them in your cash games is dangerous unless you have a very compelling reason to do so.
Occasionally, you’ll look at the slate’s pitching options, throw your hands up in the air and wonder who on earth you could possibly trust in cash games. Sometimes the answer is nobody, and that’s perfectly acceptable. Try to make some tournament lineups to mix things up, or simply take the night off. Don’t force yourself into playing cash games unless you’re completely comfortable with the pitcher you’ve selected.
Speaking from plenty of experience, trying to get cute or trying to be the smartest person in the room in terms of selecting your pitchers is generally a losing proposition. Yes, it’s fun if you actually hit on a cheap pitcher and are able to fill your lineup with a bunch of high upside hitters, but this is a tournament strategy that is extremely detrimental when you’re simply trying to beat one person or finish in the top half of a large pool of players. Pick safe pitchers that offer guaranteed points, find a couple of value bats in good spots, and give yourself a chance to make a profit every single night.
Know Your Site’s Scoring and Adjust Accordingly
I’ll use FanDuel and DraftKings as the examples as the two differ quite a bit in terms of scoring. Most notably, you select one pitcher on FanDuel and two on DraftKings. On FanDuel, getting your pitcher correct is of paramount importance because the scoring is weighted very heavily toward pitcher scoring. For example, a strikeout and single are worth the same on FanDuel while a single is worth 50% more (3 vs 2) on DraftKings. Further, wins on FanDuel are worth 12, or the equivalent of four strikeouts, whereas they’re worth four, or two strikeouts on DraftKings. While both sites will knock off the equivalent of one strike out for each earned run allowed, DraftKings subtracts for hits and walks allowed.
Clearly, finding a pitcher that can strike out a high number of batters that is very likely to earn the win is going to put you in great position to make a profit in cash games on FanDuel. On DraftKings, you take two pitchers, and quite honestly, the position just isn’t as important. I’ve cashed tournaments with a pitcher getting a negative score on DraftKings. If you get a dud from your pitcher on FanDuel, you won’t be cashing anything unless that pitcher is extremely high owned or you have head to head matchups with people who used the same guy.
The bottom line is that while it can sometimes be acceptable to make concessions on pitching in order to fit better hitters on DraftKings, it’s not on FanDuel. You want the best pitcher every single night on FanDuel, and you want to be very confident in your pitcher’s ability to earn the win. Hitters are high variance while pitching production is much more predictable. Always make it your top priority to lock in the points you can rely on. That stud hitter you forced into your lineup can’t carry your lineup if the risky pitcher you decided to gamble on drops a dud.
Every Slate is Different
Baseball is so interesting in that each slate needs to be approached uniquely. One day you won’t be able to decide which of three ace pitchers you want to use, and the next night every option will make your skin crawl. In terms of cash games, if you’re not confident in the arm or arms you’re selecting, there’s no shame in sitting out. I’ve looked at slates in the past, been unable to decide on a pitcher, and taken the night off. When you force yourself to play slates you’re not comfortable with, you generally do much more harm than good.
On slates where there’s a clear cut top pitching option, go with that pitcher. He’s going to be popular for a reason, and that reason is that he’s much more likely to deliver a premium performance than disappoint.
There’s nothing wrong with going with the chalk play at pitcher in cash games. If you fade the top guy and he pitches well, you’ll need your less talented pitcher to match him or outperform. More often than not, you’ll be playing at a disadvantage. Remember, you don’t need to beat everyone, you just need to beat enough people to turn a profit.
How to Choose a Pitcher
In cash games, you want the safe options. This is not the place to gamble on a cheap guy who’s flashed little ability to get major league hitters out because he’s facing a bad team. In my experience, pitchers are cheap for a reason, and that reason is because they aren’t that good. The pitcher position is your opportunity to lock in some guaranteed points, so don’t squander it. Of course, this is baseball, and even Clayton Kershaw can have a bad outing, but we’re playing percentages, and the percentages say that the best pitchers are going to be good much more often than they’ll struggle.
So, yes, we want to take talented pitchers in our cash games, but what other things should we look for? First, you want a pitcher with some reasonable strikeout upside. I don’t particularly care if a pitcher can throw seven innings of one run ball if he’s only going to strike three batters out along the way. Targeting pitchers who strike out batters at a high rate not only increased your floor and ceiling, but it also provides some insurance against a poor outing. I’m writing this after Jordan Zimmermann gave up seven earned runs to the Twins. However, he struck out nine batters and finishes with a decent score. Maybe he’s not the best example because he isn’t typically a high strikeout pitcher, but it illustrates my point.
Second, you absolutely must be aware of what kind of lineup a pitcher is going to be facing. Pay attention to what a pitcher’s strikeout rate is against right and left-handed batters. Some pitchers completely dominate same side hitters, but really struggle against the opposite handedness. Julio Teheran is a great example of this. He’s great against righties, but is brutal against lefties. Against a lineup with mostly right-handed hitters, like the Padres, he’d be in play. But taking him against a team like the Yankees that can load up on left-handed bats would be lighting your money on fire.
Third, consider the park your pitcher will be pitching in. Obviously we don’t want to be taking pitchers at Coors Field in our cash game lineups, but I try to avoid other good hitting environments like Arizona, Toronto, Baltimore, etc if I can. Taking pitchers in San Francisco, San Diego, Kansas City, Oakland, etc helps to limit the amount of damage an opposing lineup can do.
Fourth, take pitchers who are likely to win. This is especially important on FanDuel where the win is worth 12 points. On DraftKings, it’s not as important, but I’d still much rather have four points than not. There are factors outside of our control with respect to a win, such as the pitcher’s team not providing run support, and the bullpen blowing the game, but we can still make sensible choices. Target a pitcher who is facing a weak offense that is unlikely to generate many runs. Also, where the win is important, taking a pitcher whose team will be facing a weak pitcher increases the likelihood of a win.
How to Choose Hitters
Whereas with pitchers we want to be targeting bad offenses, with hitters we generally want to be targeting bad pitchers. There will almost be a couple of very weak pitchers on a slate, or, at the very least, pitchers with extreme splits that will favor a particular handedness. Targeting these pitchers, especially in favorable hitting environments, should be your top priority. They’re the most likely pitchers to give up runs, and thus, the hitters facing them are more likely to get hits, knock in runs, and score.
It’s easy to go overboard with targeting a particular pitcher, however. I’ve often gotten tunnel vision with MLB, convincing myself that a pitcher is so bad that pretty much any hitter is in play against him. However, in cash games, I try to follow one very important rule: Don’t roster bad hitters. Players like Ryan Howard are never in play in cash games no matter who they’re facing because they are, for lack of a better word, terrible. You can take a shot on these guys in tournaments, but the risk doesn’t justify the reward in cash games.
While you should be avoiding rostering bad hitters in cash games, it’s also important to be cognizant of how good or bad a particular lineup is. For example, not only is Ryan Howard a bad hitter, but bats cleanup for a very weak lineup. Weak lineups generate less scoring opportunities, which result in less chances to score fantasy points via runs and RBIs. You should avoid rostering hitters that play for teams that aren’t projected to score many runs in cash games.
I also try to look at a lineup’s composition. It’s easy to just look at a Vegas total and think that you should take a bunch of hitters because the team is projected to score a lot of runs, but there’s more to it than that. A team like the Rangers might be facing a below average right-handed pitcher, but the presences of Prince Fielder, and to a lesser extent, Adrian Beltre, hurt the lineup overall. Fielder mans the number three spot in the lineup, which, on most teams, is where you want to put your best hitter. Fielder, however, has arguably been their worst hitter, and the fact that he hits in such an important spot in the lineup, hurts everyone else. Beltre is a 37 year old cleanup hitter that doesn’t hit right-handed pitching particularly well anymore. We’d much prefer to target hitters from a team like Boston who has Xander Bogaerts, who always seems to be on base, hitting third, and David Ortiz, who is still elite against righties, batting cleanup. These guys can be counted on to get on base and keep rallies going, which increases the value of everyone else in the lineup.
Lastly, I’ll cover punting. This is especially important when you want to spend a significant portion of your salary on pitching. When taking a cheap hitter, you want to find someone who’s hitting high in the order. Often times, teams will give a regular starter a day off, and rather than change the lineup around, a guy who normally sits on the bench will bat lead off or second. They’re worth a look given the favorable position in the lineup and the fact that they’re surrounded by the team’s best hitters.
Position scarcity is another thing you need to be aware of when punting. It’s often better to punt a position like shortstop or catcher because the high-priced options at those positions often don’t offer the same floor/ceiling combination that similarly priced players do at other positions. For example, I’m writing this on a day where Xander Bogaerts and Miguel Cabrera both cost $4,400 on FanDuel. It doesn’t make much sense to for these players to be priced the same given Cabrera has multiple home run upside. Bogaerts is a very good hitter, but he doesn’t have a lot of power, and is extremely unlikely to post the sort of line that Cabrera is capable of.
In instances like the above situation, if we need a cheap hitter, it’s much better to try to find someone at shortstop. Punting first base means you’re cutting yourself off from elite hitters like Cabrera, Ortiz, and others. Punting shortstop means you can’t take an overpriced Xander Bogaerts, which I’m perfectly fine with. It’s also worth mentioning that outfield is a great place to find a punt because you can take a cheap option and not cut yourself off from the elite plays that are often found at the position.
Summary
I want to re-hash the most important points you should take away from this. First, in cash games, pitching is king. We want safety and upside at the position where production is easiest to predict. Hitters in great matchups can get zero, while pitchers in great matchups can post scores you can’t win without. If Clayton Kershaw is pitching, just use him. If a solid pitcher is at home facing the Padres, use them. These are safe, high upside options that are almost always going to work out.
When selecting hitters, while it’s important to target players who are in favorable matchups, also be aware of their position in the lineup, and the composition of the lineup itself. A team like Tampa Bay is never popular, but when they’re facing an average to below average lefty, they have a ton of value because they can put out a lineup that hits lefties well from nearly top to bottom. A team like the Phillies hurts the value of everyone in the lineup by allowing a .156 hitter who strikes out a ton to bat fourth.
Baseball can be a very frustrating sport because of the variance, but by making intelligent, sound decisions with pitchers and hitters, you should be in position to profit more often than not. Sometimes you’ll lose because a boom or bust hitter is high owned and has a big game, but in a sport where players fail much more often than they succeed, you want people taking those hitters in cash games. It will benefit you more often than not. Good luck in your future games, and hopefully what I’ve written here helps you improve your MLB game.