Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Saturday, July 20th
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Saturday, Grinders! Welcome to the weekend! We have a different Saturday than usual today, with only small afternoon slates available. The DFS sites have chosen to focus on the evening slate as the primary offering today, with nine games available on DraftKings and eight on FanDuel (FD is excluding Game 2 of the STL/ATL doubleheader).
If you are playing the three-game early slate, we will have expert tags and analysis in our MLB DFS optimizer to help you on your way. In this article, I am going to focus on the main evening slate. Let’s get down to business and see what this Saturday has to offer for MLB DFS picks!
Saturday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
A HEALTHY TOP TIER
Dylan Cease vs. Guardians
Grayson Rodriguez vs. Rangers
Sonny Gray vs. Braves (DK Only)
Freddy Peralta vs. Twins
Zac Gallen vs. Cubs
George Kirby vs. Astros
With teams starting to roll out some of their better pitchers in the second game after the break, we have a deep group of viable arms tonight. There isn’t a lot separating the projections for a lot of these pitchers, but let’s see what the underlying data shows.
Cease – 3.99 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 32% K, 8% BB
Rodriguez – 3.88 ERA, 3.60 xFIP, 27% K, 7% BB
Gray – 3.34 ERA, 2.77 xFIP, 30% K, 6% BB
Peralta – 4.11 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 30% K, 8% BB
Gallen – 3.87 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, 24% K, 7% BB
Kirby – 3.29 ERA, 3.29 xFIP, 25% K, 3% BB
It is clear that all of these pitchers are quality major league arms, as they all have xFIP marks of 3.60 or better. I want to let upside and matchups be my guide tonight. However, the better strikeout pitchers all have tougher matchups (Cease vs. CLE, Rodriguez vs. TEX, Gray vs. ATL, Peralta vs. MIN). The best matchup probably belongs to Gallen against a mediocre Cubs offense with favorable pitching weather at Wrigley Field, but Gallen also has the lowest strikeout rate of this group.
The above paragraph is important because it circles back to the reason why all the pitching projections are pretty well bunched up tonight. I do not think there is a clear “correct” answer from this tier. In GPP builds, this will lead me to another point: Keep a close eye on projected ownership. If ANY of these pitchers end up with extremely low pOWN%, they make for a logical GPP choice. Yes, that includes all six of them. Once again, the projections are tightly bunched.
It’s also noteworthy that pretty much all of these pitchers had at least one bad start heading into the All-Star Break. That might make some DFS players nervous too.
There are a few pitchers that I want to highlight in here. The first is Dylan Cease. He’s one of the few pitchers in this tier that did not have a “dud” start heading into the break. I love the upside of Dylan Cease on days where he doesn’t become the chalk. While he still doesn’t have elite command, he has really improved the walks of late, and the Padres are more than willing to let him throw 100+ pitches. That helps add to his ceiling, and while I get that some might not love the matchup against a lower strikeout Guardians team, Cease is matchup-proof when he has his “A” stuff. He’s my top choice in GPP builds today. Freddy Peralta would be the other intriguing choice in tournaments with his 30% strikeout rate and spike game potential despite a tough matchup of his own. Sonny Gray is a reasonable option as well, but he hasn’t been as sharp over his last few starts and doesn’t often get pushed for a high pitch count. Maybe that changes today with him pitching in Game 2 of a doubleheader depending on how the first game goes for the Cardinals.
One other pitcher I want to highlight is George Kirby. His command remains elite, and he has quietly been racking up more strikeouts over the past month and a half. He still doesn’t have the elite strikeout ceiling, but he always has the ability to put up an SP1 score on nights where BABIP goes his way given that he won’t walk anyone.
I will be focusing my GPP exposure on Cease and Peralta, but keep in mind that there isn’t much separating this tier, and you can use refined pOWN% numbers later in the day to make some GPP decisions.
SECONDARY PITCHING OPTIONS
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