Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Friday 7/31

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2026-07-31 18:30:35 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks today. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to muse about the July 31, 2026 MLB DFS slate.

Happy Friday! We close out the week with a big 13-game slate that features a whole bunch of everything. We have one elite ace and several other good pitchers, but I’d say the slate overall skews more towards offense, headlined by games in Coors Field and the Greater West Sacramento Metro Area. I’m going work to narrow things down to a smaller primary pool on both the pitching and hitting sides, but this is one where – outside of the one ace and those top two games – there is a lot of room for differing opinions.

Friday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on DraftKings and FanDuel

Dylan Cease is sort of in his own tier tonight, but I’ll put everyone above $8,500 on DK into the top tier.

TOP TIER PITCHING

• Dylan Cease vs. Cardinals – 36.5% K, 10.5% BB, 2.46 ERA, 2.94 SIERA
• Bryce Miller vs. Twins – 26.9% K, 4.2% BB, 2.75 ERA, 3.27 SIERA
• Nathan Eovaldi at Astros – 25.6% K, 5.7% BB, 4.05 ERA, 3.37 SIERA
• Hunter Brown vs. Rangers – 25% K, 14% BB, 3.45 ERA, 4.52 SIERA
• Foster Griffin at Braves – 22.6% K, 5.6% BB, 2.76 ERA, 3.75 SIERA
• Ranger Suarez at Dodgers – 26.3% K, 6.6% BB, 3.02 ERA, 3.48 SIERA

Dylan Cease is the clear standout SP1, with his 36.5% K rate. It’s not a great matchup for strikeouts, but matchup really hasn’t mattered at all for Cease. He has 7+ strikeouts in an incredible 13 straight starts, with double-digit strikeouts in 3 of his last 5 starts. He has also gone over 100 pitches in 7 consecutive starts, which is more pitches than most starters get in an entire season. He is the most-expensive pitcher on both sites, as he should be. This is a good-enough pitching slate that I won’t say he’s an absolute must-play, but he qualifies as a Don’t Overthink It anywhere salary allows.

On DK, we get a more sizeable drop in salary to Nathan Eovaldi than we do on FD. Eovaldi is basically an ace with power risk, and as usual, the home runs will determine his success tonight. He doesn’t have quite the pitch count of Cease, but he’s extremely efficient and still has no trouble going 7 innings when things go his way. He’s also a far better pitcher against righties, which helps tremendously in this matchup. He is up at a 29.3% K rate with a 54% ground-ball rate to righties this season, and with just the one good lefty bat for Houston, I’m very much in on Eovaldi on DK. Ideally, I can pair Cease and Eovaldi together on DK.

Every one of these top-tier pitchers – other than Hunter Brown – has very solid numbers this season. In his last start, Brown finally got back to looking like his old self, with his best start of the season. It is possible that he just goes right back to being an ace, but we’re still looking at only that one good start after a string of horrific control issues. Personally, I think the difference in overall numbers between Brown any everyone else is dramatic enough that I am simply crossing him off my list. I’m not certain that he’s going to be right back to being an ace after that last start, and it’s simply not a slate where we are lacking for aces, so I don’t need to take this chance on a guy with a 14% walk rate. I’m a little more willing to consider him on FD, where he’s not priced right next to Eovaldi, but he still misses my primary pool there.

The magic has worn off for Bryce Miller, though the overall numbers still look amazing. His strikeouts have mostly disappeared over his last 3 starts, which have come with a very small drop in velocity. It’s so slight that I don’t think this is likely the cause for his struggles, but it is possible that he came off the IL throwing a little too hard and can’t quite carry that same level moving forward. My best guess is that he’ll have something like a 25% K rate the rest of the way, which still makes him an ace with his elite control – and particularly at home, where his fly-ball style is perfectly suited to the ballpark. It’s also worth noting that all of the low-strikeout games have come on the road, and we’re still looking at a pitcher with an incredible 33.3% K rate and just a 2.9% walk rate in his 5 home starts this season. I certainly don’t think he’s that good, but I do think he’s closer to that than he is to the guy who didn’t get a single strikeout in his last start. With the salary where it is, I can’t play him ahead of Eovaldi, but I am playing him ahead of Brown.

We get another little price drop down to Ranger Suarez and Foster Griffin, but I don’t think it’s enough to get either of them into the primary pool. These are very good pitchers, but they are not big-strikeout aces, and they have tough matchups. At this point, I think we can either just spend up to Eovaldi or find something cheaper.

CHEAPER PITCHING

• Nick Martinez vs. White Sox – 14.2% K, 4.2% BB, 2.45 ERA, 4.83 SIERA
• Freddy Peralta vs, Marlins – 22.1% K, 9.4% BB, 4.99 ERA, 4.31 SIERA
• Shane Drohan at Angels – 24% K, 6.7% BB, 3.51 ERA, 3.68 SIERA
• Tanner Bibee vs. Diamondbacks – 19% K, 7.3% BB, 3.89 ERA, 4.45 SIERA
• Zebby Matthews at Mariners – 18.5% K, 7.5% BB, 5.21 ERA, 4.53 SIERA
• Janson Junk at Mets – 18% K, 6.3% BB, 4.89 ERA, 4.43 SIERA
• Mitch Bratt at Guardians – 15 bad career innings

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