Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Friday, March 29th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Friday! The second day of the season is always a little bit funky as some teams have left an open day on their schedule for potential Opening Day postponements like we saw in Philadelphia yesterday. But we are still left with a good-sized 8-game slate starting a little earlier than normal at 6:50 p.m. ET.
While I still want to play for the unknown early season nonsense and spread out my exposures, I’m finding a pretty clear top tier on both the pitching and hitting sides that I will be focused on. Without any further ado, or maybe without further adieu (ah-dooo!), let’s dive in and take and look through the MLB DFS picks for this Friday night slate.
Friday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We’ve got an interesting pitching slate tonight, with a bunch of viable options, but nothing that I would call elite or can’t miss for DFS. Everyone is jumbled enough that rather than sorting into tiers, I’m going to sort into these three pitcher types:
GOOD CONTROL = GOOD IN REAL LIFE
- George Kirby vs. Red Sox – 22.7% K, 2.5% BB, 3.35 ERA, 3.71 SIERA
- Bobby Miller vs. Cardinals – 23.6% K, 6.3% BB, 3.76 ERA, 3.93 SIERA
- Joe Musgrove vs. Giants – 24.3% K, 5.3% BB, 3.05 ERA, 3.77 SIERA
- Chris Bassitt at Rays – 22.5% K, 7.1% BB, 3.60 ERA, 4.25 SIERA
- Aaron Civale vs. Blue Jays – 23% K, 6.6% BB, 3.46 ERA, 4.15 SIERA
UPSIDE WITH QUESTION MARKS
- Nick Pivetta at Mariners – 31.2% K, 8.5% BB, 4.04 ERA, 3.36 SIERA
- Cristian Javier vs. Yankees – 23.1% K, 9% BB, 4.56 ERA, 4.76 SIERA
- Carlos Rodon at Astros – 22.4% K, 9.8% BB, 6.85 ERA, 4.87 SIERA
- Merrill Kelly vs. Rockies – 25.9% K, 9.6% BB, 3.29 ERA, 4.12 SIERA
CHILDREN OR LACK OF EXPERIENCE
- AJ Puk vs. Pirates – 32.2% K, 5.4% BB (in bullpen)
- Kyle Harrison at Padres – 23.8% K, 7.5% BB, 4.15 ERA, 4.45 SIERA
- Logan Allen at A’s – 22.2% K, 8.9% BB, 3.81 ERA, 4.49 SIERA
Kirby Your Enthusiasm
George Kirby is already a bona fide real-life ace with his elite control leading to a 2nd full season with an ERA below 3.40. His career walk rate sits at a silly fantastic 3.2% to go along with a solid 23.5% strikeouts. The big question for DFS this season is whether or not he can get those strikeouts back up to at least the 24.5% mark of 2022, if not even take another step forward. The general consensus seems to be that there is another level here, and I am on board with that assessment. However, I still need to see it before I just assume it’s happening. While Boston has more strikeouts in their lineup than last season, I still don’t see this as a great enough matchup to call him some sort of a must-play. If Kirby had been on yesterday’s slate, I wouldn’t have had much interest with all the higher strikeout pitchers available. But tonight is a different story, with a lot more risk and question marks among the top pitchers. Officially, I am calling Kirby my SP1, but it’s all very close, and this is not anything resembling a must-play.
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