Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Monday, June 10th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Monday! The new week kicks off with a 6-game slate that will start a tad later than usual at 7:40 PM ET. It’s an interesting slate where we have some very obvious chalk on the pitching side but with a very spread-out group of offenses. According to our MLB Weather page, Roth says there is no weather to be concerned about, so let’s jump on in and see what we can dig up.
Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
This looks like an extremely clear-cut and simple-to-decipher pitching slate. That also means we are likely to see condensed ownership on three pitchers. Because of that, I’m going to group the tiers differently, based on where I expect the field to land, and then we’ll see if we can find any reason to get away from this chalky trio:
TWO ACES AND SOME MATCHUP CHALK
Dylan Cease vs. A’s – 30.5% K, 7.2% BB, 3.51 ERA, 3.10 SIERA
Logan Gilbert vs. White Sox – 23.6% K, 6.2% BB, 3.12 ERA, 3.64 SIERA
Chris Paddack vs. Rockies – 21.3% K, 4.9% BB, 5.26 ERA, 3.81 SIERA
THE OTHER GUYS
Carlos Rodon at Royals – 23.7% K, 6.7% BB, 3.08 ERA, 3.88 SIERA
Erick Fedde at Mariners – 23.5% K, 7.1% BB, 3.27 ERA, 3.65 SIERA
Jose Berrios at Brewers – 18.9% K, 6.6% BB, 2.80 ERA, 4.18 SIERA
Spencer Arrighetti at Giants – 25.6% K, 12.1% BB, 5.79 ERA, 4.16 SIERA
Seth Lugo vs. Yankees – 21.1% K, 5.6% BB, 2.13 ERA, 3.90 SIERA
It’s very obvious at first glance that Dylan Cease and Logan Gilbert are the top two pitchers in their fantastic matchups. It’s also quite clear from the skill sets that Cease is the better pitcher, as Gilbert is really not in a different tier from everyone else in his strikeout ability. Given that Cease also has the higher-strikeout matchup, I don’t see any reason to overthink this analysis. Cease is the SP1, and he’s not even all that expensive at $10,300 on DK and $10,200 on FD.
The matchup and the talent for Logan Gilbert are good enough that I would be quite content to just eat all the high-end chalk on DK if I have a lineup where I can afford a Cease/Gilbert combo. But I’ll also say that I don’t think Gilbert is good enough to go out of your way to try and lock in an expensive-ish, chalky SP2. It’s quite rare that he spikes big strikeout games, and this is more of paying for a high floor.
That leaves me thinking that Chris Paddack is the most popular SP2 to be paired with Cease due to his matchup at home against the Rockies. This is the point where the slate gets interesting.
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