Million Dollar Musings: Saturday, August 5
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Saturday! Your usual weekend compadre is off on a well deserved vacation, so you’ll be stuck with me the next couple days. We’ve got games all throughout the day, but it’s split up a bit differently between the sites. The main slates align, with both sites running an 8-gamer at 7:05pm ET, and that’s what I’ll focus on.
FD split their early slates up into multiple smaller slates, so I’m just going to take a quick peek at some MLB DFS picks for the early 6-game DK slate that starts at 1:05pm ET.
Saturday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
Almost everyone on this early 6-game slate is worth considering on DK. Everyone that I have listed here is between $7,100 – $9,800, so while there are certainly some price gaps, they are all somewhat condensed. At least as far as an SP1 goes, you should be able to afford whomever you want out of this group:
Andrew Abbott vs. Nationals – 27.8% K, 8.6% BB, 2.35 ERA, 4.13 SIERA
Justin Verlander at Yankees – 21% K, 8% BB, 3.15 ERA, 4.56 SIERA
Jose Berrios at Red Sox – 22.9% K, 7.4% BB, 3.31 ERA, 4.19 SIERA
Aaron Civale at Tigers – 19% K, 7.2% BB, 2.34 ERA, 4.69 SIERA
Bryce Elder at Cubs – 17.8% K, 7.4% BB, 3.18 ERA, 4.48 SIERA
Jon Gray vs. Marlins – 20% K, 8.3% BB, 3.66 ERA, 4.65 SIERA
Tarik Skubal vs. Rays – 32.1% K, 3.6% BB [5 starts, 21 IP]
Nick Pivetta vs. Blue Jays – 30.1% K, 9.3% BB, 4.08 ERA, 3.54 SIERA [following opener]
The sample size here is a tricky thing, because just based on the full season numbers, without any other analysis, Tarik Skubal and Nick Pivetta look like the aces, and they are also the two cheapest options from this list. Hmmmm.
I’m still having a hard time believing this Nick Pivetta stretch of dominance, but then it doesn’t really matter if I believe it or not, because it’s very real. I mean, there are people who don’t believe in Bigfoot, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s walking around, messing with people.
I have to point out that the Red Sox are using an opener ahead of Pivetta today, which leaves some small chance that they for some reason decide not to use Pivetta. I am assuming he is a full go here with 80+ pitches, and this does not change my opinion on Pivetta at all. Just be aware there is some tiny risk that if the Red Sox jump out to an 8-run first inning or something, it is not an absolute guarantee that Pivetta pitches today.
So anyhow, Nick Pivetta has a 40% strikeout rate in 39 innings since the start of June. 40%. There’s Spencer Strider, and there’s Nick Pivetta. What kind of jacked up world is this? The Red Sox have shown that they are willing to expand his pitch count, and until he slows down, I just have to say he’s too cheap here. The Blue Jays are decent, and there’s risk, but rinse and repeat what I say every day now – every pitcher has risk – so just give me the cheaper one with clear upside.
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