Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Thursday, June 6th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Thursday! We’ve got another main slate that starts just a little earlier than usual at 6:40 p.m. ET. If you’re playing the early 3-game slate, we’ll have some Expert Tags in our MLB Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you get started.
This main slate tonight has a very good mix of pitching and hitting options, so let’s dive right in and see how it all shakes out.
Thursday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
I will put six pitchers in the top tier, although with the matchups, I could also separate it further into a top two and four pivots.
Sonny Gray vs. Rockies – 33.5% K, 6.5% BB, 3.00 ERA, 2.62 SIERA
Tanner Houck at White Sox – 24.1% K, 4.8% BB, 1.85 ERA, 3.03 SIERA
Walker Buehler at Pirates – 22.9% K, 6.7% BB, 4.32 ERA, 3.75 SIERA
Reynaldo Lopez at Nationals – 24.3% K, 8.8% BB, 1.73 ERA, 3.86 SIERA
Pablo Lopez at Yankees – 27.1% K, 4% BB, 4.84 ERA, 3.03 SIERA
Hunter Greene vs. Cubs – 25.9% K, 10.2% BB, 3.44 ERA, 3.91 SIERA
Salary is a little bit of a thing, particularly on FD, but for the most part, this top group looks clear enough that we don’t need to overthink it too much.
The best skill set on this slate by a wide margin also belongs to the guy who has the best matchup. Sonny Gray is probably the best pitcher on this slate, and he’s at home against the Rockies. The only real flaw in his game is a lack of pitch count ceiling, but with the strikeouts he’s getting, that has not hurt him at all. I will say that the lower pitch count makes me like him a tad less on FD, where he doesn’t have the best chance to get a quality start. But on DK, for just $9,500, I don’t see any reason to overthink this one.
Tanner Houck also has a great matchup, and while he doesn’t quite have Gray’s strikeout ability, he does have more of an innings ceiling, reaching 7 innings in 3 of his last 5 starts. I still slightly prefer Gray ahead of Houck on FD, but would be very happy with either. On DK, anywhere it’s possible to just pair these two together and be done with it, that’s what I’m going to do.
The next four pitchers come with a fairly significant discount on FD and a moderate discount on DK. The best pitcher of the group is Pablo Lopez, but he’s also got the toughest matchup going into Yankee Stadium. With his strikeouts dropping off a bit recently, I really don’t want to be picking on the Yankees right now, so he’s just an MME flier for me.
Hunter Greene really hasn’t shown his old upside all that much this season, and he’s still very inconsistent with the control. I love the high pitch count, and I know the strikeout ability is still in there, but he’s also got a lot of power risk pitching at home. I’ll play him ahead of Lopez on DK, but on FD, I’d side with the much cheaper Lopez if I’m chasing the MME upside play.
That leaves Walker Buehler and Reynaldo Lopez, who both have decent matchups and skill sets. Pittsburgh is a higher strikeout team than Washington against righties, and there is also more realistic room for growth in Buehler’s skill set as he continues to round into form. Buehler is just 5 starts back from injury, and while the results have been just OK, I’m encouraged to see him up over 90 pitches in his last two starts. His velocity isn’t quite at where it was early in his career, but it is the same as it was in 2021 when he was a real-life ace. If I’m fishing for something cheaper than Gray and Houck, Buehler is my preference.
I’m going to pass on Reynaldo Lopez, but he’s certainly viable in the same realm as guys like Lopez and Greene if you want to spread out more. I just don’t see any reason to buy high on a guy with a fluky low BABIP and HR/FB rate on a slate with this many good options.
It’s also completely reasonable to throw Marcus Stroman into this mix as well, but for me, I can’t pay over $8,000 for a guy with a 19.3% K rate on this slate.
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