Million Dollar Musings: Thursday, June 8

CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.

Happy Split Slate Thursday! We’ve got a 5-game early slate starting at 12:35pm ET, and then things break up a little later for the main slates depending on the site. FD has a 5-game slate starting at 6:05pm ET, while DK has a 4-game slate starting at 7:07pm ET. Note that DK is saying players from Game 2 of CWS/NYY will NOT accrue points, despite the game technically being listed on their slate.

I’ll start with a look at the early 5-game slate (that fortunately includes the same games for each site), and it also includes some obvious chalk on both sides of the ledger. I’ll be back a bit later to look at some MLB DFS picks for the “main” slate.

Thursday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

One important note to kick things off. As I’m writing this at 7am ET, Tyler Glasnow has not been officially confirmed as today’s starter for Tampa. It sounds most likely that he’s the pitcher, so I’m just writing this under that assumption.

UPDATE #1 – Well, that didn’t take long. Just as I finished this, the Rays announced that Yonny Chirinos is getting the start in place of Tyler Glasnow. This really throws a big wrench in things. I am not going to delete everything I wrote, but I will add some thoughts on Chirinos and then clear up my overall plan in the Cliff Notes.

TWO ACES AND SOME PEOPLE WITH ARMS

Clayton Kershaw at Reds – 30% K, 6.1% BB, 3.25 ERA, 3.19 SIERA
Tyler Glasnow vs. Twins – 33.3% K, 9.5% BB (2 starts)

Merrill Kelly at Nationals – 27.6% K, 10% BB, 2.80 ERA, 3.87 SIERA
Bailey Ober at Rays – 22.5% K, 6.2% BB, 2.33 ERA, 4.33 SIERA
Kyle Bradish at Brewers – 20% K, 7.3% BB, 4.13 ERA, 4.47 SIERA
Alex Cobb at Rockies – 21.8% K, 6.1% BB, 2.71 ERA, 3.49 SIERA
Josiah Gray vs. Diamondbacks – 19% K, 11.4% BB, 3.09 ERA, 5.10 SIERA

GLASNOW, KERSHAW, AND THAT’S THAT – (UGH, NO GLASNOW)

Tyler Glasnow has made two starts this season after just two starts in 2022. He has not thrown 100 innings in the majors since 2018, but no matter when we see him, or for how long, all he does is pile up strikeouts. His career mark of 30.2% strikeouts would top this slate, and every time we’ve seen him since 2019, he’s been over 33% strikeouts. I’m going to assume that the Rays try to keep his pitch count down around 90, but there’s potentially a little more. And even at 90, I would say he has the highest strikeout upside on this slate against a Twins team with the highest strikeout rate in the league. Glasnow would be the SP1 on this slate even if he were at the highest salary.

Because of how early into the season we are with Glasnow, I don’t want to be all-in on him in MME. As great as his strikeout ability and matchup are, he’s still not as good a real-life pitcher as Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw is a more efficient pitcher, and I don’t see any reason for concern over a few more runs than usual showing up in his last few starts. He’s had a very tough stretch of matchups, and he’s still sitting at a 3.25 ERA and similar 3.19 SIERA. The Reds will be all right-handed against him, but that may be a good thing, as he’s getting all his strikeouts against righties this season, up at a 33.3% clip. If we didn’t have Glasnow on this slate, I’d be completely happy with Kershaw as my SP1. And with Glasnow on the slate, I’ll call Kershaw the SP1-A.

UPDATE #2 – Well, with Glasnow off the slate, Kershaw is the clear SP1 and a priority in all lineups.

The Drop-Off

After Glasnow and Kershaw, things fall off a cliff. The only other pitcher on this slate with an above average strikeout rate this season is Merrill Kelly. In his defense, most of the reason for his high 10% walk rate came very early in the season, and since the beginning of May, he’s looked more like his usual self with solid control. He’s also seen a surprising jump in strikeouts, with 8+ in four of his last six starts, and some of those coming in difficult matchups. The skill set makes him the clear SP3, standing out ahead of everyone else in this group. But the problem is that his salary is bunched up with Glasnow and Kershaw, so he really only ends up as a tournament pivot.

UPDATE #3Merrill Kelly becomes a much more important part of this slate without Glasnow on the mound. In MME, I don’t want to be going too far overboard with Kershaw in Cincinnati, so Kelly sneaks into the primary pool, and where possible, I do want to start with a Kershaw/Kelly combo.

Next in line based on salary is Bailey Ober. He just keeps on avoiding trouble with a crazy low 4.6% HR/FB rate and .252 BABIP. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, so he’ll remain on the low side of BABIP, but he’s not limiting hard contact enough to believe in the home run luck. He is much better against righties in terms of strikeouts but with the same batted ball risk to both sides. He’s totally off my board on FD, while on DK, I’d say he’s fine-ish, but I’m looking either to just spend up or save even more salary.

Going by skill set, the next best option would be Alex Cobb. Coors Field adds all kinds of risk for a guy who needs BABIP to help him, but he keeps the ball on the ground over 60% to both sides of the plate and gets several high strikeout bats at the bottom of the lineup. I am going to use Cobb ahead of Ober on this slate, though neither are priorities.

Kyle Bradish has struggled to pitch deep into games, with a pitch count that appears to be capped around 90. He also has a below average strikeout rate, which has left him with a high-water mark of 6 strikeouts in a game this season. Even with all those issues, I kind of like him for his very reasonable salary today. The Brewers lineup is weak enough to add a couple strikeouts to his ledger, and despite last night’s onslaught and the return of Willy Adames, there just isn’t a lot to be afraid of here. Cobb is a better pitcher, but because of the difference in salary and matchup, I’ll take Bradish straight-up over Cobb. And with the salary gap, I’ll also take Bradish ahead of Ober.

Josiah Gray? The only reason he is even remotely near my player pool is that I don’t want to end up with too much Kyle Bradish. But officially, I am not playing Gray in my first 50 or so lineups. Low strikeouts, high walks, and a low strikeout matchup; I am just not interested.

UPDATE #4Yonny Chirinos vs. Twins

Yonny Chirinos is only $5,900 on DK, and while he’s no Glasnow, he does have the same good matchup. The obvious problem here is pitch count, as he’s gone no higher than 85 pitches this season and failed to top 5 innings even in his minor league starts. On top of the low innings ceiling, he also has managed just a laughable 9.7% K rate in 29 innings this season. Even if we give him the benefit of the doubt with his career 19.7% K rate, he’s still below Bradish and Cobb.

Officially, I prefer Bradish well ahead of Chirinos as the cheap SP2, but I am going to include Chirinos in the MME pool if I desperately need this salary.

EARLY PITCHING CLIFF NOTES

On FD, losing Glasnow is an obvious bummer, but it’s easier on a one-pitcher site to just roll with Clayton Kershaw. However, I will add Merrill Kelly into the mix much earlier now. If I really need a bunch of salary, I’ll toss in Kyle Bradish.

On DK, I originally said I’d have Glasnow or Kershaw in every lineup, but now I’ll say that I’m going to have Kershaw or Merrill Kelly in most lineups. I do want to just play the two of them together, but Kelly is not good enough at his salary to sacrifice all the big bats. I am also willing to do some double-cheap SP lineups now, which I wasn’t going to do with Glasnow in the pool.

My preference with the cheaper stuff is to just go all the way down to Kyle Bradish. Yonny Chirinos kind of sneaks into the pool as well, but I’m strongly in favor of Bradish ahead of him. I’m fine with throwing some Alex Cobb and Bailey Ober in the pool, but essentially, Kershaw, Kelly, and Bradish are the primary pool.

Thursday Early Hitting: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

Just the same as the last two days, we’re right back to the Dodgers and Giants at the top of the board. The Dodgers are the best team, and they are in Cincinnati against a low-strikeout righty, and the Giants are in Coors against an even lower-strikeout righty. These are how the tiers are shaping up today:

TOP TIER OFFENSE

LA Dodgers at Graham Ashcraft
SF Giants at Chase Anderson

TIER TWO OFFENSE

Arizona Diamondbacks at Josiah Gray
Colorado Rockies vs. Alex Cobb
Baltimore Orioles at Colin Rea
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kyle Bradish

TIER THREE AND LEFTOVERS

TB Rays vs. Bailey Ober
Washington Nationals vs. Merrill Kelly
Twins and Reds

BACK TO THE GIANT DODGERS

Graham Ashcraft comes in with a 6.64 ERA after having allowed 7 or more runs in five of his last seven starts. Yikes! He’s really not that bad of a pitcher, and absolutely everything has gone wrong for him recently with crazy-high BABIP numbers over the past month. But even if you even out all the luck metrics, he’s still only striking out 14.8% of righties and 20.3% of lefties this season. He has a moderate 51% ground ball rate to righties, and he’s been more of a ground ball pitcher to lefties prior to this season. This is all fine and nice and good, but one thing the Dodgers do as well as any team in the league is hit the ball in the air. This entire lineup is a Don’t Overthink It, with Mookie Betts and Max Muncy being my two favorites and top two bats on the slate.

The Giants had a strange night in Coors, unable to get anything at all going for six innings against Seabold but still ending up with 5 runs across the 7th and 8th innings combined. We did see another three lefties pinch hit for, but I’m somewhat hopeful that we don’t end up getting a lefty in the game today. The Rockies have two lefties in the pen – Brad Hand, who has pitched the last two nights, and Brent Suter, who came in last night and gave up 3 hits and 1 run without recording an out. Maybe we see Suter again and lose a lefty or two, but I’m just going to play it as if we only see righties.

Chase Anderson has no strikeout ability and no ground ball ability, and maybe we should just say no ability. Every single batter in the Giants projected lineup is above a .170 ISO against righties this season, and most of them are fly ball hitters. I much prefer individual bats from the Dodgers, but I love the San Francisco stack in every possible combination. If I’m going to pick out a couple of targets here, it would be Joc Pederson and Mike Yastrzemski.

TIER TWO OFFENSE AND BEYOND

Arizona Diamondbacks at Josiah Gray
Colorado Rockies vs. Alex Cobb
Baltimore Orioles at Colin Rea
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kyle Bradish

The only other team on this slate that is even remotely close to the Dodgers and Giants would be the Diamondbacks. Josiah Gray looks like the same gas can as ever against lefties, and I am not fooled one iota by the ERA. Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Pavin Smith are top-of-the-line plays, with Carroll being my favorite non-Dodgers bat of the day. With Gray’s lone skill against righties being a step up to 49% ground balls, I also have plenty of interest in the fly ball power of Christian Walker. I’ll include lower-in-the-order lefties in stacks, but where possible, the top four are the build-around pieces.

As always, I’ll just say that the Rockies can be stacked at home, but this team really doesn’t look great against a ground ball pitcher like Cobb. Charlie Blackmon is the only hitter with any semblance of fly ball ability, but I’m not playing him on his own, so it’s just an MME full stack.

The Orioles-Brewers game is blah vs. blah. Colin Rea looks somewhat attackable with lefty power, so I’ll put Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Anthony Santander in the primary pool. Kyle Bradish leans a bit more reverse splits, so other than Rowdy Tellez, I’d look to righty bats like Willy Adames and William Contreras.

On almost any other slate, I’d just be out on all these teams. But in MME, I don’t want to be 100% in on two chalk teams, so I’m going to start getting to this stuff fairly early on. For the most part, it’s Arizona and then Baltimore, followed by Milwaukee, with Colorado bringing up the rear.

The Twins and Reds are not going to make my stacking pool until I get to 100+ lineups, although I will include Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Spencer Steer as one-offs a little earlier than that.

The intriguing leftover is Tampa. Bailey Ober has been great, but there’s so much fluke behind his numbers. And with 45%+ fly balls to both sides of the plate, there is all kinds of upside here. I don’t really have much interest at all in picking out individual bats, but as a full stack, I’m putting Tampa up at 4th place on my list today, and I will use them as early as single-entry tournaments.

The Nationals? Eh, sure, kind of. Not really. Maybe ahead of the Brewers? This is a well-designed paragraph I’m typing here. I hope you can sense my excitement for this slate bursting through the screen.

UPDATE #5 – I wish I could say I like the Twins more now with Yonny Chirinos on the mound, and I certainly like them a little more, but it’s still just not a great team at the moment. Mostly what this does is just adds in some cheaper fill-in options, with the likes of Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, and Royce Lewis.

EARLY HITTING CLIFF NOTES

The Dodgers and Giants. The Giants and Dodgers.

Those two teams are so far ahead of the field, that other than Corbin Carroll being added in, I would be completely happy with 100% of my player pool in primary lineups coming from those two teams. They will be chalky, but the lineups are spread out enough that, especially on the Giants side, there is no one particular build that is going to be overly chalky. I’m going to get over the field on those two teams, and then everything else looks like this:

STACKS – Dodgers, Giants, gap, Diamondbacks, gap, Rays, Orioles, Rockies, Brewers

INDIVIDUAL BATSMookie Betts, Max Muncy, Corbin Carroll, Joc Pederson, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, Adley Rutschman, Ketel Marte, Mike Yastrzemski, Christian Walker, Randy Arozarena

SALARY SAVERS

FDJason Heyward, David Peralta, James Outman, Miguel Vargas, Pavin Smith, Josh Rojas, Jake McCarthy, Gunnar Henderson, Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, William Contreras, Brandon Crawford

DKJason Heyward, David Peralta, Miguel Vargas, Elly De La Cruz, Pavin Smith, Jake McCarthy, Corey Dickerson, Vidal Brujan, Aaron Hicks, Jon Singleton, Brandon Crawford

Thursday Evening Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

We have a lot of good pitchers on this small slate, with the tiers looking something like this:

THREE ACES

Spencer Strider vs. Mets – 40.6% K, 9.4% BB, 2.97 ERA, 2.63 SIERA
Zack Wheeler vs. Tigers (FD) – 26.9% K, 5.4% BB, 4.33 ERA, 3.51 SIERA
Framber Valdez at Blue Jays – 26.9% K, 5.1% BB, 2.16 ERA, 2.97 SIERA

EVERYTHING ELSE FROM OK DOWN TO CHEAP NONSENSE

Jose Berrios vs. Astros – 23.1% K, 7.5% BB, 3.66 ERA, 4.04 SIERA
Justin Verlander at Braves – 20.5% K, 6.2% BB, 4.25 ERA, 4.35 SIERA
Reid Detmers vs. Cubs – 26.4% K, 9.3% BB, 5.15 ERA, 4.00 SIERA
Aaron Civale vs. Red Sox – 17.1% K, 5.7% BB [3 starts]
Drew Smyly at Angels – 21.3% K, 6.3% BB, 3.56 ERA, 4.34 SIERA
Matt Dermody at Guardians – First MLB Start (Old Man = Not A Prospect)

STRIDER AND SOME OTHER ACES

Spencer Strider is just way better than everyone else for DFS purposes. His elite strikeouts are matchup-proof, and this just comes down to whether or not you want to spend $12k on DK and $11,400 on FD on a slate where we have a lot of other good pitchers at lower salaries. It’s certainly easy to see how we could get a ‘mediocre’ Strider game against a pesky Mets lineup, but even a mediocre Strider game comes with a lot of upside. Let’s look at the other options before deciding what to do here.

On FD, the SP2, if not the SP1, looks like Zack Wheeler with a home matchup against the Tigers. He had his worst start of the season last week in Washington, but I don’t see any reason for concern here. It’s baseball and these things happen. He has shown plenty of strikeout upside to go along with his elite control and a consistent leash, with over 100 pitches in seven of his last nine starts. Between the matchup and the pitch count, he gets pretty close to Strider’s upside, and if I need the $600, I’ll go with Wheeler as the SP1. If the $600 is not relevant at all, I ever so slightly lean Strider ahead of Wheeler.

On FD, we don’t get any discount on Framber Valdez, and he becomes pretty close to irrelevant outside of MME. But on DK, where we don’t have Wheeler, and Valdez sees a $1,600 discount from Strider, he is very much in play. I certainly don’t love the matchup and do not expect this to be one of those days when his strikeouts spike, but I always trust his talent. It’s a strange slate with the pricing on DK, and unless you’re going Strider/Valdez, the other SP2 options are mostly cheap enough that I vastly prefer to just start with Strider.

Justin Verlander may be Justin Verlander again, but I need to see more than one good start before I jump on board against Atlanta. It’s similar to Scherzer last night but with less obvious strikeout upside and the same obvious risk. Verlander and Jose Berrios are basically the same salary, and I have basically the same amount of MME-only interest in both of them. Berrios is a totally fine pitcher, but he lacks the strikeout ability to thrill me against the Astros. I will say that between Berrios’ solid skills against righties and the high strikeouts in the back half of the Houston lineup, I’ll lean slightly to the Berrios side here.

Getting A Bit Cheaper

With the pricing the way it is on DK, I am expecting to see a very clear chalk combo rise to the top with Strider + Reid Detmers. Detmers’ ERA looks shaky as all get-out at 5.15, but he’s also carrying a 26.4% K rate and comes in at just $6,500 against the Cubs. He’s simply been unlucky with a .377 BABIP, and then he’s hurt himself a bit with a lack of efficiency. There is a good amount of power risk here and not much realistic upside in terms of innings, so I don’t want to sound like this is some amazing, can’t-miss play. It’s just that he’s too cheap on a slate where we really just want to pay up for one ace, and then find a way to make it work. Detmers is the way to make it work.

If you are not on board with potential Reid Detmers chalk, you could shift to something like Aaron Civale. But this shows exactly why I expect to see Detmers chalk and why I am happy eating Detmers chalk. Civale is a no-strikeout pitcher facing a low-strikeout team, and he’s considerably more expensive than Detmers. I see no reason to goof around with this.

Drew Smyly? Well, Smyly is an extremely similar pitcher to Detmers. He also has occasional strikeout upside with a lack of efficiency and innings, all while having power risk to righties. Detmers is the higher-upside skill set to begin with, and the matchup is tougher in terms of both power and strikeouts for Smyly. On top of that, Smyly is more expensive. Again, Detmers chalk.

We’ve seen a ton of good pitching prospects coming into the league this season. I worry that we’ve seen so many that people are going to assume every $4k pitcher that they’ve never heard of is some superstar in the making. Well, Matt Dermody is a 32-year-old journeyman who has been toiling around in the minors, mostly as a reliever, since 2013. Since moving into the rotation this season, he’s actually looked kind of OK with a 24.4% K rate and low 4.7% walks at Triple-A. What I see here is a guy with no realistic upside, but also a guy who is probably not terrible, facing one of the lowest-power teams in the league. Honestly, I kind of like it. If I can’t afford Strider/Valdez, which I can’t, then I’m either playing a tough matchup with Verlander or Berrios, or I’m playing Detmers chalk.

I am seeing something like 20-DK point games as the most likely ceiling for those guys, and I can easily see 12-15 DK points for this old man. Sure, it’s possible we get a 25+ point Verlander start here, and it’s possible we get a negative from this old man. But this is the right kind of slate to consider a mediocre $4k pitcher so we can spend up on an offense that everyone else won’t be able to get.

PITCHING CLIFF NOTES

On FD, Spencer Strider and Zack Wheeler would ideally be the extent of the player pool. If you need to go cheap, I’ll consider Jose Berrios or just go all the way down to Reid Detmers.

DK is quite interesting for such a small slate. Spencer Strider is the clear top option, but he’s also $12,000. If going with Strider, it’s pretty tough to play much above Reid Detmers, which leads me back to my thought that Strider/Detmers is the chalk combo. I do love the idea of getting up to Framber Valdez to pair with Strider, but that leaves you very few ways to build an offense. I have moderate interest in Berrios and Verlander, but mostly if I’m not playing Detmers, I’m just going to throw a few darts at Matt Dermody for minimum salary.

The good thing about Dermody being an old man, unlike all these prospects we’ve been seeing this year, is that it’s way easier to hit an old man with a dart. They can’t jump out of the way as quickly.

Thursday Evening Hitting: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

As you would expect, with a pitching-heavy slate, we don’t have a lot to love with the bats tonight. This is how my tiers shake out:

TOP TIER OFFENSE

Philadelphia Phillies (FD) vs. Tyler Holton / Bullpen
LA Angels vs. Drew Smyly
Atlanta Braves vs. Justin Verlander
Cleveland Guardians vs. Matt Dermody

TIER TWO OFFENSE

Boston Red Sox at Aaron Civale
Chicago Cubs at Reid Detmers
Houston Astros at Jose Berrios
Mets, Blue Jays, Tigers

THIS IS WHAT WE HAVE TONIGHT

This top tier of offenses would barely even register as options on some full slates, but we’re all playing with the same set of games.

On FD, I will put the Phillies at the top of the list, and I assume they will end up as the chalk. Tyler Holton is a lefty who is really more of a long-opener, coming out of the bullpen and not topping 3 innings this season. This is a situation where I have no interest at all in trying to analyze the splits, as I expect to see at least 4-5 different Detroit pitchers and no more than 2 at-bats against any one of them. The pricing is soft enough here to just roll with Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner and then pairing them with at least one of Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos. The way to get different is just to include one or two lower-in-the-lineup bats like Bryson Stott or Brandon Marsh.

As a Phillies pivot on FD or a starting point on DK, my preference is with mini stacks or individual power bats ahead of full-stacking. The Angels are my first stop in that realm, with Mike Trout as the primary target, then Taylor Ward and Brandon Drury for right-handed power against Smyly. I also want to be sure to include Shohei Ohtani early and often…and not just in Angels stacks.

The next stop will be Braves power bats against Justin Verlander. I still have enough respect for Verlander to not be crazy about full-stacking here, but he’s always been a fly ball pitcher, and he’s not striking out as many batters this season. I’ll lean to Matt Olson first, followed by Ronald Acuna and Sean Murphy if I have salary to spend, with Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna next if I need more savings.

With Matt Dermody being a lefty, Jose Ramirez is the only Cleveland bat I’m particularly interested in on his own. This is the first spot that is more full-stack or fade, as opposed to the Angels and Braves, where I’m equally happy picking out mini stacks or power bats.

After Cleveland, I jump back to picking out one-offs, with Rafael Devers against Aaron Civale. Civale is the type of pitcher who can be tough to stack against with his excellent control, but he lacks swing-and-miss ability. Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida are fine, but I don’t love them at their salaries with their ground ball leans outside of stacks. I’m more apt to go with Triston Casas for some savings after Devers.

This is going to be a slate where I’ll have plenty of lineups with a batter or two against my pitcher. The Cubs against Reid Detmers are the prime example of that. I’m hopeful that Detmers picks up enough strikeouts to be good for his salary, but he also gets hit hard by righties, and the Cubs have plenty of hard-hit ability with guys like Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Yan Gomes, and Patrick Wisdom leading the way. Suzuki and Gomes are the best mix of contact and power, making them my starting points.

It’s a small enough slate that I’m going to stack some Astros, and probably even Mets and Blue Jays, but for the most part, it’s only Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker to pick out of that group.

HITTING CLIFF NOTES

On FD, things are a little clearer with the Phillies topping the charts, and then I’m leaving the rest of the slate mostly for power-hunting.

On DK, my initial lean is to shy away from full-stacking in primary lineups, unless it just organically ends up there. If I’m going to try a Strider/Valdez combo, then I’ll land on a stack for salary purposes. But in lineups with a cheaper SP2, I prefer to just get as many of my top bats as I can afford.

Here are the official rankings for this 4-5 game slate:

STACKS -Phillies (FD), Angels, Braves, Guardians, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros

INDIVIDUAL BATSMike Trout, Yordan Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani, Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, Kyle Schwarber (FD), Bryce Harper (FD), Trea Turner (FD), Seiya Suzuki, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna, Kyle Tucker

SALARY SAVERS

FDJ.T. Realmuto, Triston Casas, Corey Julks, Josh Bell, Eddie Rosario, Marcell Ozuna, Taylor Ward, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Trey Mancini

DKTriston Casas, Enrique Hernandez, Josh Bell, Corey Julks, Marcell Ozuna, Eddie Rosario, Yan Gomes, Trey Mancini, Taylor Ward, Jo Adell

Image Credit: Getty Images

CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.

Happy Split Slate Thursday! We’ve got a 5-game early slate starting at 12:35pm ET, and then things break up a little later for the main slates depending on the site. FD has a 5-game slate starting at 6:05pm ET, while DK has a 4-game slate starting at 7:07pm ET. Note that DK is saying players from Game 2 of CWS/NYY will NOT accrue points, despite the game technically being listed on their slate.

I’ll start with a look at the early 5-game slate (that fortunately includes the same games for each site), and it also includes some obvious chalk on both sides of the ledger. I’ll be back a bit later to look at some MLB DFS picks for the “main” slate.

Thursday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

One important note to kick things off. As I’m writing this at 7am ET, Tyler Glasnow has not been officially confirmed as today’s starter for Tampa. It sounds most likely that he’s the pitcher, so I’m just writing this under that assumption.

TWO ACES AND SOME PEOPLE WITH ARMS

Clayton Kershaw at Reds – 30% K, 6.1% BB, 3.25 ERA, 3.19 SIERA
Tyler Glasnow vs. Twins – 33.3% K, 9.5% BB (2 starts)

Merrill Kelly at Nationals – 27.6% K, 10% BB, 2.80 ERA, 3.87 SIERA
Bailey Ober at Rays – 22.5% K, 6.2% BB, 2.33 ERA, 4.33 SIERA
Kyle Bradish at Brewers – 20% K, 7.3% BB, 4.13 ERA, 4.47 SIERA
Alex Cobb at Rockies – 21.8% K, 6.1% BB, 2.71 ERA, 3.49 SIERA
Josiah Gray vs. Diamondbacks – 19% K, 11.4% BB, 3.09 ERA, 5.10 SIERA

GLASNOW, KERSHAW, AND THAT’S THAT

Tyler Glasnow has made two starts this season after just two starts in 2022. He has not thrown 100 innings in the majors since 2018, but no matter when we see him, or for how long, all he does is pile up strikeouts. His career mark of 30.2% strikeouts would top this slate, and every time we’ve seen him since 2019, he’s been over 33% strikeouts. I’m going to assume that the Rays try to keep his pitch count down around 90, but there’s potentially a little more. And even at 90, I would say he has the highest strikeout upside on this slate against a Twins team with the highest strikeout rate in the league. Glasnow would be the SP1 on this slate even if he were at the highest salary.

Because of how early into the season we are with Glasnow, I don’t want to be all-in on him in MME. As great as his strikeout ability and matchup are, he’s still not as good a real-life pitcher as Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw is a more efficient pitcher, and I don’t see any reason for concern over a few more runs than usual showing up in his last few starts. He’s had a very tough stretch of matchups, and he’s still sitting at a 3.25 ERA and similar 3.19 SIERA. The Reds will be all right-handed against him, but that may be a good thing, as he’s getting all his strikeouts against righties this season, up at a 33.3% clip. If we didn’t have Glasnow on this slate, I’d be completely happy with Kershaw as my SP1. And with Glasnow on the slate, I’ll call Kershaw the SP1-A.

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About the Author

  • Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood)

  • One of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy, Dave Potts, aka CheeseIsGood, has won contests at the highest levels of both season-long and DFS. He is a two-time winner of a million dollar first place prize in DFS; having won the 2014 FanDuel baseball live final and following that up by taking down a DraftKings Millionare Maker Tournament in 2015. In addition, he’s won the Main Event championship in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship and the NFBC Platinum League, which is the highest buy-in entry league. His consistent success in the NFBC tournaments recently earned him a prestigious spot in their Hall of Fame. Dave can also strum a mean guitar while carrying a tune and if you’re lucky, you’ll see him do so on one of his GrindersLive appearances. Follow Dave on Twitter – @DavePotts2.

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