Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Tuesday 4/15

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-04-16 15:15:48 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Tuesday! We’ve got a big 11-game slate tonight that appears to have plenty to like on both the pitching and hitting sides. I also see options in all different salary ranges on both sides, which should lead to an array of possibilities for building lineups. It looks like we should be OK with the MLB weather tonight, so let’s dive into the analysis and then watch the MLB starting lineups roll in.

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Tuesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

I’m going to split the tiers up based on DK pricing, using $7,500 as the cut off. Instead of burying the lead, I’ll tell you right from the start that I am more interested in the cheaper tier today, with only one of the top-tier pitchers jumping out as a primary play.

TOP TIER PITCHING

• Spencer Schwellenbach at Blue Jays – 25.6% K,4.6% BB, 2.94 ERA, 3.33 SIERA
• Hunter Brown at Cardinals – 25.4% K, 8.1% BB, 3.35 ERA, 3.64 SIERA
• Jack Flaherty at Brewers – 30.1% K, 6.3% BB, 3.02 ERA, 3.10 SIERA
• Max Fried vs. Royals – 23.6% K, 7.6% BB, 3.10 ERA, 3.52 SIERA
• Kevin Gausman vs. Braves – 21.4% K, 7.2% BB, 3.68 ERA, 4.21 SIERA
• Shota Imanaga at Padres – 23.9% K, 4.5% BB, 2.88 ERA, 3.65 SIERA
• Jeffrey Springs at White Sox – 25.2% K,8.6% BB, 3.56 ERA, 3.84 SIERA
• Tyler Mahle vs. Angels – 20.2% K, 10.1% BB, 3.08 ERA, 4.55 SIERA
• Yusei Kikuchi at Rangers – 27.4% K, 6.4% BB, 4.14 ERA, 3.38 SIERA
• Tylor Megill at Twins – 27.1% K, 9.8% BB, 3.51 ERA, 3.79 SIERA

When I look at the skill sets, matchups, and salaries, a few things get much easier with this slate. The most noticeable is that while Spencer Schwellenbach and Hunter Brown are both very good pitchers, there’s really no reason we need to pay for the two most expensive pitchers on this slate when they aren’t more skilled or in better matchups than so many cheaper options. These guys are both pitching well to start the season; either can have a big start at any time, and sure, if salary didn’t exist, they’d be in the running for top pitchers on the slate. But it’s all close enough that I just don’t see any reason at all to prioritize them.

Based on the numbers since the start of last season, Jack Flaherty is the ace of this slate, and he’s right back over 30% K to start this season. His matchup is better than Schwellenbach’s and similar to Brown, and he’s considerably cheaper on DK and a few bucks cheaper on FD. This is my SP1.

Typically, I’d say Max Fried is the ‘better in real-life’ ace, but we have to at least acknowledge his 11-strikeout performance last week. He had double-digit strikeouts just once in 29 starts last season, just once in 14 starts in 2023, and zero times in 30 starts in 2022. There is nothing to indicate that being any more than an outlier start, but it’s certainly nice to know that kind of upside exists in a best-case scenario. But in a lower-strikeout matchup tonight, I’m assuming he goes back to his usual self, which is always a good bet for a quality start with his control and ground balls, but unlikely to be a DFS must-have. I like him, but I much prefer Flaherty.

I also love Shota Imanaga in real life, but I don’t love him for DFS in low-strikeout matchups. He has not topped 4 strikeouts in a start yet this season and faces a Padres team with very few strikeouts. On the plus side, it’s also a pretty low-power lineup against lefties, so like with Fried, a quality start is probably more likely than not. At $8,700 on DK, that is enough to get him in the MME mix, but he’s another good pitcher that is not a priority.

Kevin Gausman finally showed signs of life last week, his first start, giving some hope that he can get back to his previous form. It’s likely that his 2024 was an outlier to the downside and that he at least gains back a portion of his old strikeout ability, but I’m also a long way from believing that one great start. Atlanta is a dangerous enough matchup that I’m mostly taking a wait-and-see approach here. I’m cautiously optimistic that he bounces back this season, but this isn’t the slate or the matchup where I feel the need to jump on board.

The best matchup of this tier goes to Jeffrey Springs, though it’s important to note that the White Sox are not nearly as strikeout-heavy against left-handed pitching. We’ve also seen two very shaky starts from Springs after his strong opener. It’s quite possible this has all been matchup-based, as his good start was in Seattle, while his bad starts were against the Cubs and Padres. But regardless of matchup, a 7:6 K:BB ratio in his last 9 innings is not inspiring. I don’t see any red flags in his velocity or pitch mix, but I would also note that he is not yet back to his pre-injury velocity of 2022. The matchup and DK salary are enough to put him in the same bucket as Imanaga and Morton, but still, I’m just not in love with anyone in this tier besides Flaherty.

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