Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Wednesday, September 25th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Wednesday! As we come down the stretch, we have a good looking 9-game slate that includes a couple of very important real-life games which feature the best pitchers on the slate. However, we also have a big monkey wrench right in the middle of things with the MLB weather forecast in Atlanta potentially messing with Chris Sale against the Mets. Until we get closer to lock, there’s no good way to try and sort this out. Because Sale is considerably more expensive than everyone else on the slate, we really can’t just view this as a simple pivot if things sound bad closer to lock. What I am going to do is make 2 sets of lineups, one with Sale and one without, so that I’m ready to swap in either set right before lock.
The other playoff-caliber game between the Padres and Dodgers looks absolutely glorious for real-life viewing but it makes it very tough to get excited about either side of things for DFS. Let’s dive in and see what we find.
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Wednesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
As mentioned above, everything about this slate shifts dramatically depending on the weather in Atlanta. With Sale included, we have a top 6 that looks like this:
TOP TIER PITCHING
Chris Sale vs. Mets – 32.1% K, 5.6% BB, 2.38 ERA, 2.81 SIERA
Jack Flaherty vs. Padres – 30.1% K, 5.6% BB, 3.10 ERA, 3.06 SIERA
Dylan Cease at Dodgers – 29.8% K, 8.4% BB, 3.42 ERA, 3.41 SIERA
Zac Gallen vs. Giants – 24.2% K, 8.7% BB, 3.74 ERA, 3.96 SIERA
Kevin Gausman vs. Red Sox – 21.8% K, 7.3% BB, 3.91 ERA, 4.19 SIERA
Cody Bradford at A’s – 23% K, 3.5% BB, 3.59 ERA, 3.73 SIERA
The first note here is that I am not listing Nestor Cortes among the viable options. He is getting an MRI on his elbow, so I assume he’ll be scratched, but even if he were to pitch, I see no reason to risk it.
If I’m getting picky, it’s more than just the weather that gives me pause on spending up for Chris Sale. In his last start in Cincinnati, his velocity saw a huge dip to almost 2 mph below his regular numbers. Because of that, the Braves pushed him back a day, even though that cost them the possibility of using him twice in this final week. When we add in that his strikeouts have not been quite at his typical elite level for the past month, I’m leaning toward taking an underweight approach, here even if the weather clears up completely. He is still absolutely the SP1 for raw points and ceiling, but the red flag is here, and at $11,300 on FD and $11,100 on DK, I want certainty, which I don’t think we have.
The next two most talented pitchers on this slate are…
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