MLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, May 9
Erik Wardenburg previews the Tuesday, May 9th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Solid ten-game main slate today that will have a couple of rain spots to monitor. Top D-Backs prospect Brandon Pfaadt gets a chance to redeem himself against the Marlins after getting destroyed in his MLB debut. Aaron Judge is back for the Yankees, making their already high upside as a stack today even higher.
The Braves are also getting a boost with the return of Travis d’Arnaud (not starting today though), while the A’s and Cubs will be without Laureano and Hoerner, respectively, as both left early yesterday with injuries. Plenty of other news and notes today along with some MLB DFS picks, so let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- CHW/KCR looks like our biggest rain concern of the day, as current models show the fringes of a large storm system could hit the stadium and cause a delay or possibly a PPD. Overall this is looking like a game to fade SPs in with so much rain uncertainty, while hitters could become cash game viable if the weather starts looking better closer to lock.
- SDP/MIN will have some poorly timed rain arriving early in the game, so there are a few possible outcomes. If it arrives near first pitch they may just delay and wait it out, but if it’s looking clear at first pitch they might try to play until any rain causes an in-game delay. I won’t be using any of these SPs in cash games, but with the game likely being played in full eventually I would still consider targeting bats here.
- BOS/ATL is the best hitting weather today, with temps in the low 80s to high 70s and 10mph wind blowing out to left. STL/CHC will have a slight 5mph breeze blowing in with temps in the low 50s for today’s coldest game.
- OAK/NYY will be in the low 60s with 5mph wind blowing in from right, HOU/LAA will be in the high 50s with 12mph wind blowing out, and WSH/SF will be in the mid-50s with 11mph wind blowing out.
- Today’s dome games are TEX/SEA, MIA/ARI, and LAD/MIL.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Aaron Judge will come off the IL today for the Yankees and bat second. DJ LeMahieu is getting a day off so Torres will hit clean-up, Bauers will DH, and Cabrera will play 3B.
- Ramon Laureano is in the concussion protocol and will miss at least today’s game. Rooker will DH with Ruiz, Bleday, and Kemp handling the OF spots.
- Travis d’Arnaud is back from his concussion for ATL but won’t start today, so Murphy will catch and Ozuna will remain the DH.
- The Royals are giving Pratto, Olivares, and Massey days off, so Dozier, Fermin, and Eaton will start.
- Yoan Moncada is close to a return, but it will likely be later in the week, and the same is true for Michael Brantley. Tim Anderson is getting a day off so Benintendi will hit leadoff and Sosa will be in the lineup for the White Sox.
- Nico Hoerner exited early with a hamstring injury yesterday, and is out at least for today and likely longer. The Cubs will go with Madrigal at leadoff, while newly promoted Morel will start at 2B and bat 8th.
- Lourdes Gurriel should be back starting against a lefty after he didn’t start yesterday due to him getting his US Citizenship. Travis Jankowski is going on the IL, so Grossman will likely get most starts in the 2-hole now.
- The Giants are calling up infield prospect Casey Schmitt, and he’s expected to be in the lineup today at either 2B or SS.
- The Yankees are my top stack of the slate, followed by ATL, CHW, LAD, and MIL.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- There are four expensive SPs in the top tier today, with Ohtani ($11,600) leading the way against Houston and my preferred play from this group for cash games. His opponent Valdez ($10,800) is a great GPP play, while Webb ($10,500) and Kirby ($9,900) both have huge upside pitching at home. If you’d rather spend up on bats and go cheap at SP, then Brandon Pfaadt ($5,800) would be my choice, as he draws a great matchup with Miami and could see pretty low ownership after a terrible first start. I also don’t mind Patrick Corbin ($6,800) as he’s in a pitcher’s park against a high strikeout SF team, and will likely have a longer leash than Pfaadt for just $1k more salary.
- Luis Robert ($3,000) remains way too cheap, especially against Lyles who has just an 11.8 K% to righties this season. He will be a top cash game option until he gets closer to $3,500. Andrew Vaughn ($3,200) is another great cash game target, while Benintendi ($2,800) and Sheets ($2,600) are fine value bats if you want a full stack.
- Gleyber Torres ($2,800) also remains underpriced for someone hitting .333 with just one strikeout and four extra-base hits over his last four games. If you can’t fit in Judge ($3,900), then I’d try getting in a couple more Yankees bats between Volpe ($2,700), Rizzo ($3,100), and Bader ($3,000) who all come at excellent prices.
- LAD/MIL is tied for the highest projected run total of the slate, and both teams have some solid value bats. Chris Taylor ($3,000) will hit clean-up today at a fantastic price with the platoon advantage, while Miguel Vargas ($2,600) is a fine value option at 2B. Yelich ($3,200), Adames ($3,100), and Tellez ($3,200) make for an excellent value stack from MIL. I like taking higher than .5 hits for Taylor on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, check out our Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Other cheap bats I’m considering for cash games include Esteury Ruiz ($3,100), Eddie Rosario ($2,700), MJ Melendez ($2,700), Manny Machado ($3,000), Carlos Correa ($3,000), Alex Kirilloff ($2,200), Austin Slater ($2,500), Mitch Haniger ($3,000), and Wilmer Flores ($2,800).
- Brandon Pfaadt ($4,500), Clarke Schmidt ($6,000), and Patrick Corbin ($5,800) all come at crazy cheap prices, with Schmidt getting a huge $2,200 price discount from FanDuel. I like having exposure to all three in GPPs, and I can’t blame anyone for using a combo of them for cash game SPs and loading up on expensive bats. Ohtani ($11,600), Webb ($9,500), and Kirby ($9,100) remain the top spend-ups and should be in your GPP pool.
- There are a bunch of great value bats for under $3.5k today, so it’s making me really consider spending up at SP in cash games. Some guys I’m loving for crazy cheap right now are Gavin Sheets ($2,500), Austin Slater ($2,700), Wilmer Flores ($2,600), Andrew Vaughn ($3,100), and Chris Taylor ($3,200). With their positional eligibility, it’s possible to use all of them in a lineup and really stack up SPs and the other bats. Vaughn and Taylor are my favorites from that group if you only use a couple, as they’re the least likely to be pinch-hit for.
- Harrison Bader ($3,600) is my favorite p/$ bat from the Yankees, while Jake Bauers ($2,000) is worth considering if you need a minimum-price outfielder. Eddie Rosario ($2,500) is my favorite p/$ bat from the Braves, who currently have one of the highest projected team totals of the slate.
- Miguel Vargas ($2,900), Alex Kirilloff ($2,800), Jesse Winker ($3,100), Brendan Donovan ($3,300), Matt Mervis ($2,300), Tom Murphy ($2,100), and JD Davis ($3,500) are more value bats that I like having exposure to in GPPs or as fill-ins for a final cash game spot or two.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!