Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (April 14)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Tuesday’s Hayden Wesneski play went … poorly. Still intrigued by the skills if he can find a way to do a better job limiting hard contact.
How about my guy Brad Keller?! Shoved against a solid Texas lineup on Wednesday. There’s something there, I’m telling you.
Rockies Leaving Coors vs. Rostering Marco Gonzales
Fading the Rockies on the road, especially after an extended series in Colorado, is one of the great DFS/sports betting traditions. They were first in runs scored at home and dead last in scoring on the road in 2022.
Colorado opened the season with a six-game road trip and then played a week of home games, so tonight in Seattle is the first time they’ll have to deal with the effects of leaving the high-altitude Denver environment.
And the pitcher rewarded with this golden opportunity? Marco Gonzales. Ugh. Gonzales is a mediocre real-life starter (4.08 career ERA) but his impossibly weak swing-and-miss skills (5.07 K/9 and 1st percentile K% in 2022) make him an arm we typically ignore in DFS situations.
However, the top end of today’s pitching pool is bereft of the high-upside pitchers that typically make it difficult to click on the Gonzales types. No offense to Kodai Senga, Drew Rasmussen and Nestor Cortes, but they’re not the guys we’re used to seeing atop the salary list. Take the savings on Gonzales and lock in a great chance at a quality start + win, then jam in as many expensive bats as possible.
Rays Against Righties vs. Broken Berrios
It’s hard to take too much from the splits data this early, as most teams haven’t even topped 400 plate appearances vs. right-handers. But the gap between the Rays and everybody else is cavernous. Tampa Bay’s ridiculous start includes a 163 wRC+ and a .575 SLG against righties to go with a massive .299 ISO. No other team is within 30 points of those marks.
Berrios’ 2022 collapse has continued into this season with 12 ER in two starts. A 12:3 K:BB has saved Berrios from an even-worse line, and strikeouts used to be the route to success against Tampa Bay. Not anymore! The Rays have gone from 24th in strikeout rate vs. righties last season to 2nd in 2023, along with a 10.9% walk rate (9th-best).
The Rays won’t come cheap, especially on DraftKings. But it looks like their elevated price points are keeping projected ownership in check with only Brandon Lowe showing double-digit pOWN. Going cheap at SP (maybe that Gonzales fella?) and forcing 3-4 Tampa Bay bats into your lineup is a solid starting point tonight. I’m taking the Over on the Rays’ team total as well (4.5 at -120 on FanDuel).
Miami’s Plate Discipline vs. Madison Bumgarner’s Chase Rate
The Marlins were bottom five in strikeout rate and walk rate last season and they struggled against lefties in particular. Miami’s 27.7% strikeout rate vs. southpaws was 1.3% higher than the 29th-place Pirates.
Luis Arraez has apparently set a good example for this team, as they’ve trimmed the K% to 25% (20th) against lefties and improved their wRC+ from a league-worst 71 to an above-average 110 in 2023.
Madison Bumgarner has been terrible through two starts, especially from a K:BB perspective. He’s put up an untenable seven strikeouts to 10 walks. Huge caveat, both starts came against the Dodgers. But his fastball spin rate is down for the fourth-straight season, as is his chase rate, which has bottomed out to 12.7% (1st percentile).
So Miami is making more contact and Bumgarner isn’t getting anyone to chase his declining stuff. This seems like a priority stack. Projected ownership is pretty split between the Marlins and the Phillies for the 3-game early slate. Going overweight on Miami and hoping Philadelphia’s power outage continues might provide an edge.