Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (August 11)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Big Tuesday for the article. Taillon was great, the Pirates hit 4 HRs, and the Angels’ cheap bats came through. Just missed a big night myself, as I pivoted from Suwinski/Reynolds/Rivas and only had Suwinski in there. The Pittsburgh stack ended up being too cheap and I had more salary to spend. Back at it tonight.
Philadelphia’s Righty Power vs. Old Dallas Keuchel
The Philly bats were popular yesterday against Patrick Corbin, and they came through, just not against Corbin himself. Minnesota’s bullpen is much tougher than Washington’s unit, so the Phillies will need to do their work against the starter this time.
There was some buzz about a “new” version of Keuchel, but apparently Driveline couldn’t revive him. His sinker averaged 87.7 MPH in his return to MLB action. It was 87.2 MPH in his dreadful 2022 campaign. The cutter sat at 85.2 MPH, perfectly in line with his 2022 mark.
Keuchel managed to hold Arizona to a run over five innings, but he allowed 10 baserunners and managed exactly ZERO strikeouts. That combination has implosion written all over it.
SUMMARY: Philadelphia has plenty of power bats vs. lefties, especially against a guy who can’t take advantage of their high-strikeout guys (Schwarber, Realmuto, Castellanos). Love the Phillies as an inexpensive stack.
Joan Adon’s Silly FD Price vs. His Career Stats
Adon is priced as an opener on FanDuel. Like, literally. He’s $5.5K, same as Scott Alexander and Dylan Coleman. That’s intriguing.
Now, we have a decent sample size of Adon being nowhere near an MLB-caliber pitcher. He had a 7.10 ERA over 64.1 innings last year, pairing a weak 17.7 K% with a brutal 12.6% BB%. Not great. But Adon has looked better in a tiny 2023 sample.
He took a perfect game into the sixth inning in his first start of the season, faltering late but hanging on for a quality start and win against Cincinnati. In 11 big-league innings, Adon has 11 Ks to 3 BBs this year. His ERA is 4.91 over three appearances, but his xERA is 3.53.
SUMMARY: Adon wouldn’t be a consideration if he wasn’t HALF the price of Blake Snell and facing Oakland. But he is, so here we are. Adon belongs in your player pool on FanDuel for the savings alone.
Two-Faced Johan Oviedo vs. Interesting Line Movement
There’s been no in-between with Oviedo lately. Since the start of July, he’s had four starts of 6+ innings and 1 ER or less. He’s allowed 18 ER in his other three starts during that span.
So he’s either awesome or terrible, which is fine for tournaments. Five innings of three-run ball with four strikeouts doesn’t get us anywhere. Give us a chance to shoot up the leaderboard with a great start, or get crushed so we can go watch Netflix.
Cincinnati is just 10-16 since the All-Star break. They’ve dropped 8-of-9. The Reds opened as -116 favorites, but they’ve been bet down to -104 underdogs. Win equity is obviously important, and bettors seem confident Oviedo will have a chance to earn a W.
SUMMARY: Oviedo is priced closer to the aces on FanDuel, but he’s just $7K on DraftKings. I’ll take him as a high-upside SP2 over there.