Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (July 21)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Nailed the Reds in the Tuesday article and somehow still flubbed my Dinger Tuesday pick. Mentioned Votto, Benson and Fraley in the article. Went with De La Cruz because I was worried about the lineup spots for Votto/Benson and the pinch-hit risk with Fraley (he only got two ABs). Of course Elly was the only one who didn’t go deep.
Current Version of Michael Soroka vs. Milwaukee’s Limited Lineup
It’d be understandable if Soroka was rusty after missing multiple seasons, but what we’ve seen through five outings is basically a different pitcher altogether. He’s throwing harder, the pitch mix has flipped and the batted balls are out of wack.
Soroka came up as a sinker-heavy, elite control guy who never gave up home runs. And he was pretty effective. He’s now leaning on a 4-seamer with career-high velocity and throwing the slider about as much as the sinker. The new approach has led to a spike in home runs. Soroka has a career-high 2.31 HR/9 and a bloated 27.3% HR/FB.
I doubt a quarter of Soroka’s fly balls are going to keep leaving the yard, but it’s definitely a better profile to stack against than in the past. The challenge is finding 3-4 Brewers you can stomach clicking on. Milwaukee is 25th in wRC+ vs. RHPs since the start of June. It’s Christian Yelich and then … good luck.
SUMMARY: Yelich is a great place to start lineups, and I’ll be looking to pair him with Willy Adames and William Contreras (or Victor Caratini if he’s in the lineup). Soroka is going to give up a home run or two, and these guys seem like the most likely candidates.
DraftKings still has Milwaukee’s team total at 3.5. Every other book is at 4 or 4.5. Plenty of juice (-150), but I’ll take the Over.
Kodai Senga’s (Slightly) Declining Walks vs. Boston’s BB Apathy
Senga opened his career with 3+ walks in 10-of-12 starts. He had 4+ in seven of those outings. Some walks are ok. Healthy, even. Senga just needs to not walk everybody.
He’s given out two free passes or less in four of his last five starts. Senga’s BB% is still a ghastly 12%, but it’s at least been manageable lately. He’s also been piling up strikeouts, with 43 Ks over his last 31 innings.
Boston has been middle-of-the-pack against right-handed pitching. The key is that they’re 26th in BB% on the season vs. RHPs. Today’s projected lineup has a 7.0% BB%, even lower than Boston’s full season rate (7.5%).
SUMMARY: Senga is my favorite pitcher of the slate. He’s had better control in recent outings and the Red Sox aren’t the type of lineup to exploit his walk issues. Shohei Ohtani being $200 cheaper on FanDuel gives me pause, but I’ll take the massive ownership discount on Senga.
Grant Neiffer is on Senga Over 5.5 strikeouts and I’m with him.
Undervalued Texas vs. Tony Gonsolin’s Declining Secondaries
Any time the Rangers are getting ignored, I’m intrigued. None of the Texas bats project for more than 3% ownership on either site.
Gonsolin typically relies on his splitter and slider to get whiffs and strikeouts. The two pitches have had whiff rates above 32% in every season of his career. We’re talking legitimate strikeout pitches. But the splitter has tumbled to a 21.8% whiff rate in 2023, and the slider isn’t much better at 26.3%. Gonsolin’s strikeout rate has predictably declined to a career-low 18.9%.
Gonsolin’s 3.72 ERA is the worst mark of his career, as is his 4.87 xERA. He’s far more exploitable than he’s been in previous years.
SUMMARY: It’s pricey, but I love the Rangers as a low-owned stack with enormous upside. Their projected lineup has a .202 ISO vs. RHPs. Jam in as many of them as you can.