Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (June 9)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Verlander vs. Strider was supposed to be the classic veteran vs. youngster pitching duel. A passing-of-the-torch situation.
Aaand it was 9-6 after five innings.
Shohei Ohtani’s Price vs. His Upside
The SP pricing is … interesting today, especially on FanDuel. Ohtani is $10K, which makes sense. But he’s behind four other pitchers. It’s not often you have to navigate that far down the list to click on someone with Ohtani’s skills.
Recent performance is definitely a factor, specifically with Cristian Javier and Marcus Stroman. They’ve been great! But their ceilings aren’t in the same stratosphere as Ohtani’s.
He hasn’t been as elite from a run-prevention perspective, but Ohtani is still piling up strikeouts (33.8% K%). And now he gets the second-highest strikeout team vs. RHPs.
SUMMARY: Projected ownership has Luis Castillo and Gerrit Cole in the same ballpark as Ohtani, despite far worse matchups. Lock in Ohtani as much as often as you can.
Keith Eyster is already on Ohtani over 7.5 strikeouts at ScoresAndOdds. I’m on that, and I also hit the ladder on FanDuel up to 10+ strikeouts (+240).
Eury Perez’ Workload Concerns vs. Chicago’s Punchless Offense
Miami’s top pitching prospect has been as advertised through five starts with a 2.25 ERA and exactly a strikeout per inning. It’s the workload that has been the issue. Perez has topped out at 88 pitches and five innings so far.
Even in his best start, five scoreless innings against a good Angels lineup, Perez was yanked after five innings and 79 pitches. A quality start feels impossible right now, and the wins have to dry up, given his supporting cast (Perez somehow has three wins already).
Now, the matchup is excellent. The White Sox are 29th in wOBA and 28th in wRC+ vs. RHPs since the start of May. They’re middle of the pack in terms of strikeouts during that span. The question is whether Perez will be out there long enough to take advantage of the situation.
SUMMARY: For as exciting as he is, the ceiling is actually low for Perez right now. He’s a safe option on DraftKings if you’re going with a risky SP in your other slot (Darvish in Coors, Logan Allen vs. Houston, etc.).
Philadelphia’s Lefties vs. Michael Grove’s Splits
Grove has an 8.14 ERA, but he’s actually been solid against righties. Through five starts, he’s allowed a 0.273 wOBA and a 0.160 ISO to RHBs while striking them out at a 28.6% clip. That’ll play!
Lefties, on the other hand … my goodness. Grove has allowed a 0.495 wOBA and a 0.308 ISO to LHBs with just a 15.6% strikeout rate.
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper both have well-above average wOBAs and ISOs against righties, but don’t forget about Brandon Marsh and Kody Clemens.
SUMMARY: Schwarber and Harper will be popular on FanDuel, but not so much on DraftKings (they’re quite expensive). I like Philly as an affordable stack on FD and a low-owned play on DK.