Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (September 15)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Nice Tuesday for the article. Mets got to Ryne Nelson, Mariners blasted Patrick Sandoval, and Cal Quantrill pitched well again. Let’s stay hot!
Justin Steele’s Boring Profile vs. Arizona’s Lefty Struggles
Guys get called two-pitch pitchers all the time, and it’s usually hyperbole. They primarily throw two pitches, but still mix in a third pitch that is either unrefined or inconsistent (Spencer Strider’s changeup). And sometimes that third pitch is working, and the mix looks different for that start (again, Strider’s changeup). The “two-pitch pitcher” label is also usually negative, suggesting a guy doesn’t have enough stuff to have sustained success.
Not Steele. His 4-seamer/slider combo accounts for 96.7% of his pitches this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the “sinkers” and “curveballs” in his pitch tracking are just misclassified 4-seamers and sliders. And these two pitches are AWESOME. The 4-seamer is 4th in the league among all starters in run value, behind some dudes named Cole, Gallen and Castillo (heard of ‘em??). The slider has a whiff rate up over 30% and has held opponents to a .207 batting average.
Steele isn’t hitting 99 MPH or snapping off nasty sweepers, but he’s been really, really effective. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER since May and sits in second place in ERA and wins in the NL.
SUMMARY: Arizona is 23rd in wRC+ and 26th in scoring vs. LHPs since the start of August. Steele is expensive, and that should keep his ownership down. Love starting my lineups with him and hunting for cheap bats to make it work.
Sean Newcomb Skepticism vs. San Diego’s Lefty Mashers
Could Newcomb be finally putting it together with Oakland? Maybe. But I’m not seeing many signs of significant changes. He’s ditched the awful cutter this season, which is a start. Yet his velocity is down and the walk rate is still sky-high.
Newcomb’s 34.1% K% and 0.75 ERA are certainly interesting, but it’s been 12 innings and mostly out of the bullpen (one start). Walks have always been his biggest problem (career 12.2% BB%), and he’s at a massive 13.6% BB% with the A’s. The control issues are the main reason why when he’s struggled in the past, he gets absolutely destroyed.
San Diego continues to be disappointing, but they’ve hammered lefties all season. The Padres are top 10 in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ vs. LHPs since the start of August and 5th in HRs against lefties on the season.
SUMMARY: Just not buying Newcomb is any different from the guy that had an 8.78 ERA last season. And when it goes bad, it’s disastrous, which means this stack has slate-winning upside. I’ll have 3-4 Padres in my lineup for sure, starting with Soto/Tatis/Machado and filtering in the cheaper bats.
Minnesota’s Righties vs. Jesse Scholtens’ Splits
The Twins can be tough to stack because of all the strikeouts. Always feels like you’re just trying to guess right on the HRs (and they hit plenty of them). I’ll be looking to grab 1-2 Minnesota righties against Scholtens, who has healthy reverse splits.
Scholtens has been half-decent as a starter, and his ERA mirrors his xERA (4.44, always fun when that happens). Righties have been the problem, as he’s allowed a .333/.374/.569 to RHBs. Scholtens has held lefties to a .212/.283/.255 line. He’s given up 12 HRs, and all of them have been hit by right-handers.
Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa will be popular, but don’t be afraid to mix in some Ryan Jeffers. He has a well-above average hard-hit rate and a 99th percentile max exit velocity. When he’s in the lineup, he’s dangerous.
SUMMARY: Scholtens is giving up bombs to someone in this lineup; it’s about getting it right. Lewis and Correa are good bets, and I’ll be using Jeffers where it makes sense.