Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (August 15)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
While digging into some Giolito stats, I discovered his middle name is Frost. That’s pretty sweet. If he went by Frost Giolito, I’d have some hesitation stacking against him today. Alas, give me all the Rangers vs. Lucas.
Pricey Texas Bats vs. Lucas Giolito’s Batted Ball Profile
The cost of the Rangers has to be what’s keeping their projected ownership in check. No hitter is above 7% pOWN on either site right now.
Jamming all of Seager/Garcia/Semien in there on DK at $5.7K+ apiece is improbable. But can we get two of them, plus two cheaper Rangers? I think so.
Giolito has allowed 15 ER through three starts with the Angels. His combination of skills should be yielding more home runs, as his 40.8% hard-hit rate is his highest for a full season and his 10.7% barrel rate is easily a career-high. You would assume he’s keeping the ball in the yard by getting ground balls and strikeouts, but that’s not the case. Giolito’s 25.1% strikeout rate is his lowest since 2018 and his 35.7% GB% is the second-lowest mark of his career.
SUMMARY: Giolito’s HR/9 is 1.65, a career-high for a full season but not way off his lifetime 1.40 mark. More dingers have to be coming. If you can find the salary, a Texas stack has tons of upside.
I’m also taking the Rangers Over 4.5 runs (-120 on DraftKings).
Zack Littell’s Workload vs. San Francisco’s Silent Offense
If we’re going to fit in the Rangers, we need some cheap pitching. Littell is where I’m heading. He has price, recent performance and matchup all in his favor.
Littell is the latest reliever Tampa Bay has stretched out into a reliable starter. He’s served as an opener at times, but his last three outings have been legit starts. Littell has a crisp 2.65 ERA over that span. He’s gone 5+ innings in all three appearances, earning two wins. That’s crucial here.
San Francisco has been ice-cold against right-handed pitching, with the second-worst wRC+ since the start of July. This punchless bunch is a distant last in OPS and wOBA vs. RHPs during that stretch.
SUMMARY: Don’t expect many strikeouts from Littell, but a quality start + win is definitely in play. That’s really all we need from him at this price ($5.7K FD / $6.8K DK).
Touki Toussaint’s Tightrope Act vs. Chicago’s Lefties
Toussaint is firmly in the “HE CAN’T KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH IT” tier. He has an abhorrent 15.9 BB%, which isn’t even that far off from his career mark (14.1%). Just not enough strikes to be effective.
Toussaint has survived to this point by striking out righties at an insane 34.9% rate. For context, that would be second in the league among qualified starters (behind only Spencer Strider’s silly 37.9% rate). The key is the lefties. Toussaint is striking out just 14.8% of LHBs, along with a borderline-impressive 17.4% BB%.
The Cubs have been mashing right-handers since the start of July, ranking top four in OPS, wOBA and wRC+.
SUMMARY: I’ll shy away from the Chicago righties, especially the high-strikeout guys (Morel, Suzuki, Swanson to a degree). But I’m trying to get a couple of lefties in every lineup. Tauchman/Happ/Candelario are all affordable. Bellinger is expensive, though he’s easy to fit if you don’t go all-in on the Rangers.