Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (August 29)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
I was bracing myself to pay $9K+ for Cole Ragans today. That is … not the case.
Cole Ragans’ Disrespectful Price vs. Pittsburgh’s Punchout Potential
I mean, what are we doing here? $6.6K / $6K for a guy with a 2.08 ERA and a 33.3% K% who has seemingly found MORE velocity? Every single lineup I build will have Ragans in it.
See that changeup in the pic up top? It was 82.2 MPH last year. It’s sitting at 86.6 MPH now. The 4-seamer is also up 4 MPH on the season, and it was up 6 MPH (!!) last start. Yeah, this dude is sitting at 98 MPH right now.
Pittsburgh is 28th or worse in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. LHPs since the start of July. They have the 10th-highest K% (24.5%) during that stretch
SUMMARY: It’s not if you’re playing Ragans, it’s how much. I’m locking him in everywhere.
Mets’ Righty Power vs. Volatile Andrew Heaney
Heaney finally gave up some HRs last start after going four straight outings without a long ball. His mix of skills suggests some HR upside, with an 11.1% barrel rate (9th percentile) and a 31.5% fly ball rate. Heaney is allowing a healthy .218 ISO to righties.
The Mets’ lineup is full of holes and I’m not interested in a full stack. Rounding out lineups with Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso makes sense though. Lindor has much more power from the right side (.262 ISO) and Alonso has destroyed lefties (.344 ISO). Don’t hate using Francisco Alvarez on DK where you need a catcher, he certainly has some pop.
SUMMARY: Heaney should be giving up more bombs and we saw it in his last outing. I’m chasing dingers with Lindor and/or Alonso, with a sprinkle of Alvarez.
Adam Duvall and Co. vs. J.P. France’s Regression
Hard to believe France had a 2.75 ERA coming into last week’s start against the Boston squad. The bespectacled righty has just a 17.8% K% and his xERA is 4.61. The Red Sox bashed him for 10 ER, raising his ERA to 3.51, and that should keep rising.
Duvall is on an incredible heater and deserves to be in lineups regardless of the matchup right now. He’s hitting .357 with 7 HRs over the past two weeks.
Boston has hit righties hard in August, ranking 5th in OPS and ISO and 6th in wRC+ vs. RHPs. Duvall will get some steam as a one-off, but the rest of this lineup should be relatively low-owned.
SUMMARY: Boston will be my main stack on this slate. Duvall is a lock and I’ll filter in Devers, Casas, Yoshida, Turner and Verdugo.