Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (August 8)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Jose Ramirez got a shorter suspension because he … won the fight? Didn’t get embarrassed? MLB discipline is always fun.
Jameson Taillon’s Hot Stretch vs. New York’s Depleted Lineup
We’re looking at a thin pitching slate outside of Max Scherzer. I’m guessing Scherzer blows past the 22% pOWN we have for him on FanDuel right now (37% on DraftKings sounds about right), so I’ll be looking to fade him in my Single Entry Series lineup.
Taillon seems healthy over the last month. He’s 4-0 with a 2.80 ERA since the start of July. Taillon’s only reached 6 IP in two of his six starts over that stretch, but the pitch counts have been there.
Taillon should cruise to a quality start, given the state of the Mets’ lineup. It’s Nimmo, Lindor and Alonso, then … yikes. Did you know Baltimore legend DJ Stewart was on this team? How about a revenge spot for Rafael Ortega? How do you pronounce Arauz?
It’s grim. This projected lineup has a .292 wOBA against RHPs, which would rank 28th in the league.
SUMMARY: I’m fading Scherzer and looking for a high-floor, reasonably-cheap SP option. Taillon fits the bill in this matchup. Give me a quality start + win, and I’ll use the savings to spend on bats.
Pittsburgh’s Contact Issues vs. Yonny Chirinos’ Strikeout Struggles
The Pirates have some pop. Today’s projected lineup has a .219 ISO vs. RHPs, which would be 2nd for the full season. Now, there are a bunch of small samples in there. Most of these guys don’t have a full season of ABs with the team. But it stands out enough to be intriguing.
The problem for Pittsburgh has been strikeouts, especially lately. The Pirates have a 26.3% K% against righties since the start of July (6th-highest). Today’s projected lineup is right at 26.3%, always nice when that works out.
Good thing Chirinos can’t strike out anybody. His 13% K% is 1st percentile, and his K:BB is an ugly 39:22 over 71.1 innings. If you can’t miss bats, you better generate ground balls or limit hard contact, but Chirinos struggles there too. He’s 17th percentile in hard-hit rate and league-average in GB%.
SUMMARY: Chirinos has shown a bit more strikeout ability in his first two appearances with Atlanta. I’m not buying it. Love grabbing a couple of dirt-cheap Pirates to round out my lineup.
Right-Handed Halos vs. Alex Wood’s Splits
San Francisco is going with a left-handed opener (Scott Alexander) ahead of a left-handed follower (Alex Wood). Don’t see that too much.
The Angels have pounded lefties lately, sitting 5th in wRC+ vs. southpaws since the start of July. The current iteration of their lineup has a slew of lefty mashers (Grichuk, Cron, Renfroe) plus a couple of switch hitters who are better from the right side (Rengifo, Escobar).
Wood has been much worse against righties (.193 ISO, .363 wOBA) than lefties (.117 ISO, .298 wOBA). Los Angeles will have just one lefty in the lineup, and it’s some dude named Shohei Ohtani. Good luck.
SUMMARY: Outside of Ohtani, this stack is super cheap. I’ll be grabbing 2-3 cheap bats to fit around the MVP favorite.
Certainly not going to pass up grabbing the Angels’ team total Over 4.5 at plus money on DraftKings either.