MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, June 21st
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
There’s an abundance of pitching to like, meaning that there is a scarcity of stacks to love. Add that the best pitching largely has tough matchups, and we have a fairly complex slate as a whole. In this space, we’ll try to simplify the process and isolate a tight stack pool where we can get aggressive on a few spots versus stacking every team on a slate where we wanna play so many different pitchers.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, June 21st
TOP STACK
Orioles at Jake Bloss
The cool thing about having so much good pitching over $8,500 on DK and $9,500 on FD is that it’s gonna be difficult for the field to afford the top stack on the board: the Orioles.
The O’s 119 wRC+ this season is just behind the Dodgers (123) and the Yankees (120) for tops in baseball. Even better for us, their .203 ISO and 119 HRs lead the league. With the Dodgers facing Patrick Sandoval who has great power prevention and the Yankees facing the elite Chris Sale, the O’s run away as the best stack for me, facing a 22-year-old making his major league debut. A guy who isn’t very good yet.
Jake Bloss got called up by the Astros at a bad time. He’s struggled with command at A- and high-A ball (19 BBs in 33.2 IP) and has reacted to it by greatly lowering his K stuff from double-digit K/9 at the lower levels to just 7.05 K/9 in Double-A. Sure, the BB/9 is down to 2.62 at Double-A, but he seems like a guy who has to pick a lane: he’s either gonna try to strike guys out with unhittable pitches or pitch to contact. Given his shaky command, both should be a recipe for disaster against an Orioles projected lineup with only two strikeout rates over 25% and six barrel rates over 9% against righties:
Colton Cowser, 13.1%
Gunnar Henderson, 12%
Ryan Mountcastle, 11.2%
Anthony Santander, 10.3%
Ryan O’Hearn, 9.4%
Jordan Westburg, 9%
Add Adley Rutschman and his 8% barrel rate with the mild power of Cedric Mullins and Ramon Urias and we can (and should) play everyone on the Orioles very aggressively.
Bloss might be good — eventually. He might be good now against a team that chases often to the extreme, like the Marlins or Rockies. But he’s a guy who’s deeply gonna need the punchouts to survive, and the O’s don’t hand him enough. We should expect a high-contact opportunity by the O’s to not get squandered with a decent ballpark bump going into Houston and guaranteed 9 innings of plate appearances.
Baltimore is only projected for 6-7% pOWN% as a stack, so when I say that we can play them aggressively, I’m saying that we can triple the field on them on a slate where there is more abundance at pitcher than with bats.
The Orioles are my top single-entry team on a night where I’m likely just playing one lineup. Maybe three in smaller fields. Chris Sale, Dylan Cease, Grayson Rodriguez, Kutter Crawford, and Carlos Rodon are all in tough spots, so I’m prioritizing the Orioles over paying up for pitching. For instance, we can spend down to DJ Herz and Trevor Rogers on DK and play whomever we want. FD is a little harder because George Kirby in Miami is staring us in the face at $9,800, but pricing is softer on FD anyway.
STRONG STACKS
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