MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, April 13th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got some early baseball on tap for Saturday, as DraftKings is rolling with an 11-game slate starting at 1:10 PM ET. The last games on the board won’t get underway until 4:10 PM ET, so there’s a decent chance we may have to do some late swapping depending on when lineups come out. FanDuel decided to split the early games up, so I’ll only be touching on DK for the purposes of this article today.
Without further ado, let’s dive right in and figure out how to stack ‘em up today.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, April 13th
Chalk Stack – Braves at Max Meyer
To be clear, the ownership projections early this morning don’t identify any one stack as “chalk.” The Braves, Blue Jays, Astros, Angels, and Nationals are all semi-popular, but we don’t have a single stack projected to pull more than 10% stack ownership in large-field tournaments. Projections aren’t gospel, but it looks like the Braves may actually be coming in under-owned even as one of the more popular teams on the slate.
Atlanta will face Max Meyer in Miami, which is a park downgrade for the bats. Meyer was once a top prospect, but injuries have slowed his roll in recent years. He’s pitched well through 2 outings this season (2.33 ERA), but his strikeout rate is down around 17% while his barrel rate is pushing 13%. Numbers from such a tiny sample should be taken with a grain of salt, but it sounds like he’s due for some regression, as evidenced by his 4.33 SIERA. The right-hander is keeping the ball on the ground 58% of the time, which tracks somewhat with the numbers he posted earlier in his career and at the lower levels.
Even if Meyer is a decent enough pitcher, there’s just way too much talent in the Braves lineup to think he can keep skating by with a 13% barrel rate. So far this season, Atlanta’s projected lineup is sporting a cartoonish .428 wOBA and a .230 ISO vs. RHP, and you can argue Ronald Acuna – you know, the reigning NL MVP – hasn’t quite hit his stride just yet.
Meyer’s average platoon split will make the lefties, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris, stand out, but it’s not like I’ll avoid Acuna, Austin Riley, or Marcell Ozuna in full stacks. The salary cap is a thing though, so you’re going to have to make some sacrifices on the pitching side and with your secondary stack if you want to fully stack them.
Logan Webb ($8,300), MacKenzie Gore ($8,800), DL Hall ($6,100), and Dean Kremer ($7,400) are a few cheaper arms I’ll be considering pairing with Braves stacks out of necessity. The Angels and Nationals are affordable secondary stacks that you can fit together with the Braves, and projected ownership doesn’t look like something we really have to worry about when it comes to building lineups on such a large slate.
The projections love Atlanta here, as the Braves’ 8.1% projected stack ownership is absolutely trounced by their whopping 19.9% Opto% on DK.
Pivot Stack
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