MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, July 27th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’re looking at 9 games on the main slate for Saturday night, and the only game with legitimate weather risk appears to be WAS/STL with a YELLOW/ORANGE in Roth’s early weather report. It’s looking as though we’ll have a chalky SP1 for the second straight night, and here’s hoping he fares better than Freddy Peralta did yesterday. Things on the offensive side look quite a bit more spread out, as there isn’t a single team on the board with an implied run total north of 5 runs.
Let’s dive in and talk about stacks, shall we?
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, July 27th
CHALKY STACK
Yankees at Kutter Crawford
The Yanks did some damage last night against Brayan Bello and friends, and it looks like they’ll headline the bats again tonight. A trip to Fenway is a nice park boost for the Bombers, who’ll face Kutter Crawford in tonight’s clash.
Crawford is a good pitcher and not one we’d typically be picking on with a stack at ownership. Crawford’s 3.90 SIERA makes his 3.33 ERA look somewhat legitimate. The 9.6% barrel rate is on the high side, and he’s an extreme fly ball right-hander (48%). Hard-hit fly balls tend to turn into homers, and Kutter has served up 19 of those bad boys already this season. The strikeouts (23.6%) and walks (6.4%) are solid, so keeping the ball in the yard is his primary issue.
We’re looking for dongs in our stacks, so I can get behind targeting the Yankees here. Crawford projects for a neutral right-handed split in THE BAT, and the splits look appropriate. His fly ball rate is about 10% higher this season against lefties, while LHBs have accounted for 11 of those 19 homers he’s yielded. The overall batted ball data (.304 wOBA) favors righties, as his strikeout rate is about 2% higher against lefties.
Fenway favors righty power, of course, with the Green Monster lurking out there in left field. Aaron Judge (.351 ISO, .455 wOBA, 24.9% barrels) is a terrific play tonight regardless of whether you’re stacking the rest of the Yankees with him. The numbers for Juan Soto really aren’t all that much worse than Judge’s, yet I’d expect the latter to carry more ownership.
It’s difficult to get too geeked about the rest of this team right now, but at least we can find some salary savings. There’s nobody else in the lineup north of $4,000 on DraftKings, while the $3,000 Ben Rice is the only non-Judge/Soto Yankee cracking the $3,000 threshold on FanDuel. Rice, Austin Wells, and Alex Verdugo would be my next stops in an ideal stack, though I don’t mind Trent Grisham as a punt given his solid .204 ISO against right-handed pitching.
The Yankees won’t be flying under the radar, but the RG projections still adore them. New York is pulling around 13% projected ownership on both sites as of this writing, yet their optimal rates are hovering up in the 20% range.
DJ LeMahieu is cheap, but he’s also terrible. If he’s going to catch ownership because the Yankees are going to be popular, I have no qualms with X-ing him out completely.
PIVOT STACK
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