MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, June 8th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a nice 10-game early MLB DFS slate on tap for Saturday with a little bit of everything. If you want expensive pitching, you’ve got it. Cheap pitching? Present. Middle-of-the-road arms? You bet. A decent pitching slate naturally means not a lot of offenses stand out as must-stacks, though there are still some rather obvious spots to attack. The weather is also heating up as we draw closer to the middle of June, so hopefully we’ll start to see offense perk up as a result.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, June 8th
CHALKY STACKS
Cardinals vs. Ryan Feltner
Red Sox at Nick Nastrini
I’m not convinced the Cardinals wind up as mega-chalk by any means, but they are projected to pull some ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Redbirds will take their swings against Ryan Feltner at home. Feltner is also backed up by what is easily the league’s worst bullpen.
The game isn’t taking place at Coors Field, but Busch Stadium on a warm summer day is still more hitter-friendly than usual. The forecast calls for temperatures in the 80s with some wind blowing a bit out to left field.
Feltner isn’t a gas can, but he’s still one of the weaker pitchers going this afternoon. The right-hander’s strikeout rate is a shade north of 18% for the year, though his walk (6.3%) and barrel (6.5%) rates have both been serviceable. Feltner has also shown a passable ground ball lean, and his 4.22 SIERA isn’t nearly as ugly as his 6.22 ERA. We can probably blame Coors for that. Feltner’s been victimized by a .351 BABIP with a strand rate of just 60%.
His split aren’t egregious, but left-handed hitters have teed off to the tune of a .392 wOBA vs. Feltner on the season. The Cardinals are more lefty-heavy than usual these days, with 5 LHBs in today’s projected lineup. Alec Burleson (.363 wOBA, .187 ISO vs. RHP) has fared well enough this season to earn a recent promotion into the No. 2 spot in the order, while Nolan Gorman has come around in a big way of late following a lackluster start to the year. The quality of lefties drops off considerably once you get past them, but Matt Carpenter, Michael Siani, and Brendan Donovan will still hold the platoon edge over Feltner.
Paul Goldschmidt (8.9%) has the highest barrel rate of any right-handed bat vs. right-handed pitching on the year. Ivan Herrera (7.7%) is next, but it gets ugly after that. Masyn Wynn (.344 wOBA) has a useful speed element to his game, while at least Nolan Arenado is cheap ($3,800 DK, $2,800 FD).
All things considered, the Cardinals stack doesn’t really jump off the page even in a favorable spot. Their 9.5% optimal rate on DraftKings is lower than their 10.2% stack pOWN%. On FanDuel, their projected stack ownership (8%) is about double their Opto%.
If any one stack is chalky today it’ll probably be the Red Sox on the road against Nick Nastrini. The White Sox home yard is among the most hitter friendly on the board, and Nastrini has a case to be the worst pitcher drawing a start today.
Nastrini is sporting a 13.6% strikeout rate next to a 19.6% walk rate on the year, which is not what you want. He’s allowed 5 homers through 5 outings, and he’s a perfect 0-5 in those games. Nastrini’s 6.94 SIERA is atrocious, though not quite as atrocious as his ERA, which happens to be pushing 10.00.
So yeah, the Red Sox look very appealing. He’s whiffed a whopping 5.3% of lefties this year with a .461 wOBA allowed. His walk rate against LHBs is over 34%. It’s all bad. Very bad. Rafael Devers is probably the top overall hitter on the slate and someone I’m willing to get to regardless of whether I stack him with the rest of the Red Sox.
Devers is one of 6 lefties in Boston’s projected lineup. Jarren Duran and Enmanuel Valdez figure to be popular plays at their respective positions, and rightfully so. You can save salary with Dominic Smith from the left side, while David Hamilton and Reese McGuire are fine punt values in stacks.
I shouldn’t completely overlook the righties, as it’s not like Nastrini’s been shutting them down either. Rob Refsnyder, Garrett Cooper, and Ceddanne Rafaela won’t be making All-Star teams any time soon, but they’re all affordable and fit quite easily into any Boston stack.
The 5.02 implied run total for the Red Sox is the highest on the board and rightfully so.
TILT STACK
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