MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, September 14th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Saturday brings a solid little MLB slate of 8 games including Game 2 of the Cubs-Rockies series at Coors Field. We’ve also got a bit of weather to watch once again in Atlanta, but the Coors game is the only one on the slate that features offenses with implied run totals of at least 5. We should see fairly concentrated ownership here, though there are still other spots worth attacking.
Let’s jump in.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, September 14th
CHALK STACK
Cubs at Kyle Freeland
Kyle Freeland is awfully similar to Austin Gomber, the Rockies left-hander we stacked against last night. Freeland’s overall numbers this season aren’t awful though, especially compared to those he’s posted in recent years. Freeland’s ERA is just under 5 (which is an accomplishment if you make half of your starts in Denver), while his 4.37 SIERA is downright respectable.
Still, Freeland isn’t missing many bats (18.4% Ks), and the solid ground ball numbers he posted earlier in his career have all but dried up (41.6%). Freeland has yielded 14 homers across 18 starts, all to right-handed batters.
Righties also have a .345 wOBA at his expense, while he’s still doing a fine job of inducing grounders (52%) from his fellow lefties. Cody Bellinger and Michael Busch hit the ball in the air enough to remain in my stacking pool despite their left-handedness, especially considering we’re not expecting Freeland to last all 9 innings, of course.
The Cubs’ righties should be the chalkier options, and justifiably so. Dansby Swanson (11.9%) and Ian Happ (11.5%) have the highest barrel rates of the Cubs’ RHBs vs. LHP, while Seiya Suzuki (8.9%) is the only other one making consistently good contact. It really isn’t a particularly impressive lineup once you get past the top, though Isaac Paredes (.233 ISO, .392 wOBA) still has impressive numbers against left-handers dating back to his days with Tampa Bay. Patrick Wisdom would give the Cubs another powerful right-handed bat if he cracks the lineup, though he’s a pinch-hit risk later in the game if he starts.
Chicago’s 5.97 implied run total is the highest on the board, and they’re predictably pulling the most ownership of any stack. There is enough viable cheap pitching on this slate to make the Cubs affordable, but I’ll be going pretty off the board with my secondary stacks in order to account for Chicago’s pOWN%.
On DK, the Cubs are pulling around 10% projected stack ownership, though their optimal rate is hovering down in the 5% range. They’re around 12% pOWN% over on FanDuel, with an Opto% of just over 7%.
PIVOT STACKS
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