MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, April 28th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’re looking at a solid 9-game MLB DFS slate on this fine Sunday, but this one is skewed pretty heavily in favor of the hitting. Tarik Skubal is really the only pitcher I’d call an ace in the player pool today, though there are some viable cheaper options that will make it easier to pay up for some bats. There is no shortage of ways to go with stacks this afternoon, though there’s just one offense (Hint: It’s the Braves) with an implied run total of over 5.
Here’s how we’ll be stacking ‘em up today.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, April 28th
Chalk Stack – Braves vs. Ben Lively
It looks like we’re headed for another day with Braves chalk, though I wouldn’t expect it to be overwhelming. Atlanta is pulling the highest projected stack ownership on both DraftKings (11.6%) and FanDuel (15.3%) as they prepare to take their swings against journeyman right-hander Ben Lively.
Lively has only pitched twice so far this season for the Guardians, and both starts were impressive outings against a mediocre Red Sox outfit. To say his 33.3% strikeout rate looks unsustainable next to his career 18.2% mark would be the understatement of a lifetime, while something tells me his 2.38 ERA isn’t sustainable either. It should go without saying, but the 2024 Braves are quite a bit more imposing than the 2024 Red Sox.
Lively didn’t pitch poorly last season as a member of the Reds, but we’re talking about a guy with a 20% strikeout rate and a SIERA of around 4.30. Again, not terrible, but he’s completely average if he posts similar numbers again this season. We’re looking at a pretty even split of fly balls and ground balls, while he yielded 20 homers across 19 games a season ago.
Left-handed hitters have mashed Lively to the tune of a .382 career wOBA, while he’s struck them out only about 15% of the time. The splits he finished with in 2023 were similar to those career outcomes, so I’d be building any Braves stack around Matt Olson (.337 ISO vs. RHP) with Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris, and Jarred Kelenic all firmly in play. Ronald Acuna and Austin Riley have been weirdly unproductive to begin the season, but perhaps that’ll limit their ownership at their hefty price points, even in stacks.
As mentioned, there’s enough viable cheap pitching out there to make spending up for the Braves doable today. On FanDuel, Atlanta’s 24.2% optimal rate is the highest on the slate, and it trounces their projected stack ownership. The Braves are actually coming in with a negative leverage rating on DK, however, as the price points are a bit more cumbersome over there. They’re only optimal around 8% of the time on DK.
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