MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, May 14
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
There are good pitching and hitting options spread around the slate. Ownership will condense somewhere to create easy pivots. I’m counting four good pitching options on FD, maybe eight on DK. And I can live with four or five stacks just for single-entry, not to mention MME. We won’t go through 12 teams in this space, but we will look at the consensus chalk, the best pivot off of the chalk, and probably the best spot for leverage.
Chalk Stack – Braves vs. Yusei Kikuchi
The Braves have a ~45% higher pOWN than the next team, they’ll be so chalky. And it’s good chalk.
Yusei Kikuchi leads the slate — by far — with 2.02 HR/9 allowed on a 13.4% barrel rate since 2022. Kikuchi has faced 1,720 RHBs over his MLB career and is averaging 1.85 HR/9 to them over this healthy sample.
In the very homer-friendly Rogers Centre (with the roof open), the Braves’ projected lineup’s .360 wOBA and .208 ISO against LHPs since 2022 should play very well. Including Matt Olson from the left side brings a .179 ISO into this game.
The main thing that stands out on the periphery is that this lineup hits the ball extremely hard since 2022 against LHPs. Here are the hard-hit rates Plate IQ is providing:
Ronald Acuna, 50.0%
Matt Olson, 40.6%
Austin Riley, 52.7%
Sean Murphy, 51.1%
Ozzie Albies, 38.3%
Travis d’Arnaud, 51.7%
Marcell Ozuna, 34.4%
Kevin Pillar, 55.2% (39 PAs)
Orlando Arcia, 44.6% (86 PAs)
Ozuna is the only one with a low rate, but he’s among the team leaders in barrel rate since 2022 (13.1%) and is extremely cheap. This piece is crucial to our stacks because the team is pretty expensive.
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