MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, April 24th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a 7-game main slate on both sites that sets up similarly to yesterday. Like teammate Pablo Lopez, an expensive Joe Ryan figures to be the chalk at pitcher due to a matchup with the White Sox. The Padres return to Coors Field, where they have only managed to plate an underwhelming seven runs in the first two games of the series.
Let’s dive in and discuss how to handle the Padres and other bats that may be worth rostering on this slate.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, April 24th
CHALK STACK
Padres at Ty Blach / Rockies Bullpen
The Padres are hoping the third game is the charm, as they attempt to fill the Manny Machado-sized hole in their lineup. They got the win in the first game of the series against Austin Gomber despite scoring just three runs, but they dropped the second game against Ryan Feltner, as the Rockies outscored them 7-4.
The Rockies have not officially listed a starter for the game, but lefty Ty Blach seems to be the consensus option. He was recently recalled from Triple-A after making 4 starts. He did not throw more than 61 pitches in any of his Triple-A starts, and his lone big league outing this season was 1 inning out of the bullpen. It is pretty unlikely he works very deep in this game.
Jalen Beeks is the only lefty in the Rockies bullpen (assuming Blach does get the start), and he is presumably not available after working 3 innings yesterday.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is the clear top option with Machado still on the paternity list, as he leads the team with an 11% barrel rate since the beginning of last season. The remainder of the lineup (outside of maybe Eguy Rosario) is filled with high-contact, low-power bats, so stacking is the way to go if rostering Padres.
There are some troubling numbers for the Padres in the Top Stacks tool. Their projected ownership checks in at between 15% and 18% depending on the site, which is the highest mark on the slate. However, their OPTO% comes in significantly lower on both sites, and their stack rating is among the lowest on the slate.
Unless the field has grown tired of their lackluster performance in the last two games and the Padres actual ownership checks in much lower than projected, it is hard to justify targeting them as the top option.
PIVOT STACK
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